A banned user called MSZ had an TL along these lines called Kalter Krieg. Hitler is assassinated just after taking the Rhineland in '38, but the Nazi state survives more or less intact and Goering takes over as the new Fuhrer. Goering abandons Hitler's plans for lebensraum in Poland and farther east, but the threat of military force to get Danzig and Memel.
Germany uses its economic influence to form a kind of fascist NATO/EU organization that includes Germany, Poland, the Baltic States, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Iberia, and the Balkans except for Greece. The low countries remain neutral, while the Scandinavian social democracies band together with a customs union and military alliance system.
A kind of three-sided cold war evolves between liberal democracy (UK and France), fascism (Germany, Italy and friends), and Communism (USSR, China, comintern lil buddies bordering these two, and various assorted terrorist groups and anti colonial guerillas. Nuclear weapons emerge much later without WW2, but ballistic missiles tipped with chemical weapons like Sarin and VX nerve gas play an analogous role to nuclear warheads for much of the '50s and '60s.