AHC: Clinton resigns in January 1998

IOTL Bubba said when Lewinsky broke that he might not survive that first week. So let's say that Hillary doesn't do the famous Today VRWC interview, and it takes a bit longer for the WH to counterattack. Clinton resigns, Gore becomes POTUS. How does Gore govern for the next 3-6 years? Effects on the '98 midterms, since impeachment obviously isn't happening IOTL? I think an emboldened GOP would overreach somewhere down the line, but would it be in 1998? Too late to save Gingrich's speakership, and Livingston's affair has already happened. Some Senate seats they lost IOTL: CA, NC, NV, NY, WI. NC/NV/WI could definitely go the other way. Issue for Republicans in CA and NY is how blue those states are. If Ferraro beats Schumer in the NY-D primary, can D'Amato hang on or does he just lose by a smaller margin? In CA Fong got blitzed by Boxer on guns and abortion in the final weeks, but hard to butterfly an obvious counterattack. AR's out of reach because of who the GOP nominee is.
 
We might not bomb Iraq in 1998. Gore might even reveal the information Hussein Kamil gave the UN. (Of course, that could result in a revolution in Iraq and/or Iran trying to exert influence.)
 
How does the 2000 election go differently?

Gore's political future here is interesting -- because he's coming to power so early in Clinton's second term, he can't be elected to more than one term in his own right. So if he does win 2000 (more likely, as he's now the incumbent), the Democrats will have to nominate someone else in 2004. Not that it would do him much good -- the Dems are going to get creamed in the 98 midterms, so no chance of retaking the House or Senate in 2000 or 2004.
 
Gore's political future here is interesting -- because he's coming to power so early in Clinton's second term, he can't be elected to more than one term in his own right. So if he does win 2000 (more likely, as he's now the incumbent), the Democrats will have to nominate someone else in 2004. Not that it would do him much good -- the Dems are going to get creamed in the 98 midterms, so no chance of retaking the House or Senate in 2000 or 2004.

I would not be too sure of that. With Clinton forced out due to an exposed affair, with said drives for his removal being led by hypocritical GOP philanderers, the Democratic backlash in 1998 could well be worse, rather than lessened. And 2000 is an incumbent election with a Democrat in the White House.
 
I would not be too sure of that. With Clinton forced out due to an exposed affair, with said drives for his removal being led by hypocritical GOP philanderers, the Democratic backlash in 1998 could well be worse, rather than lessened. And 2000 is an incumbent election with a Democrat in the White House.

Especially since the last time a president was forced to resign was under FAR worse, most definitely illegal and indefensible circumstances. The Democrats are going to be eating rocks and spitting sand going into 1998 and the rather spectacular infidelity on the part of the men hounding him out of office will only make it more severe with Gingrich's classy divorce of his first wife while she was sick in the hospital with cancer because she, "Wasn't pretty enough to be First Lady" and his schtupping his then-secretary and soon to be third wife during the impeachment proceedings as the most stellar example.
 
Yeah, a forced resignation taking Clinton out of the picture leaves Republicans embarrassed (even if thrilled for a day) and holding the bag come Election Day 1998. With time, plus a greater sense of outrage, I wonder how many other GOP Congressional "Other Women":mad: come out of the woodwork, especially with even MORE $$$ thrown out there by He Who Is The Anti-Christ to all Hypocrites, Larry Flynt:p
 
The other thing to consider is who Gore chooses as his Vice-President. Bob Graham would be my choice, and that of choice opens up Florida in 2000!!
 
Think this might, ironically, lead to a larger Democratic field for the nomination in 2000?

Quite the opposite with an incumbent POTUS. Unless the Dems ignore history. Reagan challenged the "Accidental President", split the party, and elected Carter.
 
Al Gore as the alternative to someone with after hours evening activites of a questionable nature; the irony

his divorce happened for a reason
 
IOTL Bubba said when Lewinsky broke that he might not survive that first week. So let's say that Hillary doesn't do the famous Today VRWC interview, and it takes a bit longer for the WH to counterattack. Clinton resigns, Gore becomes POTUS. How does Gore govern for the next 3-6 years? Effects on the '98 midterms, since impeachment obviously isn't happening IOTL? I think an emboldened GOP would overreach somewhere down the line, but would it be in 1998? Too late to save Gingrich's speakership, and Livingston's affair has already happened. Some Senate seats they lost IOTL: CA, NC, NV, NY, WI. NC/NV/WI could definitely go the other way. Issue for Republicans in CA and NY is how blue those states are. If Ferraro beats Schumer in the NY-D primary, can D'Amato hang on or does he just lose by a smaller margin? In CA Fong got blitzed by Boxer on guns and abortion in the final weeks, but hard to butterfly an obvious counterattack. AR's out of reach because of who the GOP nominee is.

Starr doesn't become a villain, and eventually closes out his investigations. Clinton later admits to lying about the Paula Jones matter and agrees to a suspension of his law license. Hillary leaves Bill, and eventually wins a safe House seat in New York.

GOP doesn't lose as badly. In this case, they try to move on entitlement reform. The Gingrich and Livingston affairs come out, driving both out of office, but in this case, without impeachment, it becomes a much smaller hit.

Gore and the GOP Congress quickly clash over Gore's decision to sign the Kyoto treaty, and push for ratification. I think the GOP wins in Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina - and D'Amato holds on in New York for the Senate. The GOP also regains some of the seats it lost in 1996.

Gore's push for Kyoto hurts him badly in the general, and while his selection of Bob Graham allows him to hold Florida, he loses Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio, and George W. Bush still takes the White House, with the GOP not having the major losses it did in 2000 on the Senate, either.
 
It seems like the majority of posters are assuming that without the protracted -- and pointless, obviously -- impeachment proceedings, Republicans would do better off in TTL than OTL.

I'm not sure that's the case.

First, the POD butterflies away Clinton at his least likeable: appearing on national TV wagging his finger saying "I did not have sexual relations with that woman," "It depends on what the definition of 'is' is", and the like. Clinton's approval ratings were at 60% in January 1998, and would peak at 73% on the eve of impeachment. During the impeachment farce, Clinton's popularity hovered right around 70.

So yeah, Clinton resigning would save the Republican Party from the approval-torching antics of Newt Gingrich making an ass out of himself on 100 million TV sets on a nightly basis throughout 1998 -- at least, on impeachment, anyway; he might find another reason to annoy four-fifths of the public ITTL. Instead, you have the fact that the Republican House of Representatives, a group whose fidelity rate is approximately 0%, drove one of the most popular sitting Presidents in history from office for having an affair and lying about it.

That's going to have political consequences. I think it's plausible that the public backlash against the Republicans is going to be much worse in this scenario.
 

Madoc

Banned
Andrew & all,

You're also making assumptions about Clinton that I don't think hold up.

At this point Bill Clinton's record is not all that stellar. His big push in his first term was health care reform as led by his wife. That turned into such an epic disaster that it cost the Democrats the House. AND it burned any hope of actual health care reform for an entire generation.

That's not much to crow about for Bubba.

With the GOP in control of the House they throttled Bill Clinton to the point that he finally retreated from his liberal economic policies and gave it up for the Republicans. That brought about a definite economic boom for the nation.

In OTL, Billy Jeff was exceptionally adroit at laying claim to that boom as his own. This, when it was actually due to the Republicans forcing their economic agenda upon him.

So, in this ATL, Bill Clinton has not had the chance to fully develop his persona. Now he gets chased out of office for cheating on his wife. Once that ball starts rolling there will be huge changes on the Democratic side.

Yes, there'll be a backlash but there'll also be some massive "distancing" of the Democrats from their failed leader. That will make for an ugly "piling on" of one revelation after another. All to make the case that Bill Clinton "lied" to the Democrats so his failure is not therefore the _fault_ of the Democrats. To achieve this it will be essential for the Democrats to make sure that the public knows that Bill Clinton is damaged goods.

Thus a lot of the effort expended in OTL to keep such information away from the public will, instead, be expended to keep such information _TO_ the public. There'll be no behind the scenes suppression or damnation of witnesses to Bill Clinton's decades long sexual escapades. There'll be no inhibitions for "the truth" to come out about all the various other scandals the Clintons were involved in back there in Arkansas. The various land deals and political payoffs that Billy Jeff benefited from as governor will, in this ATL, come out into the light of day like never before.

Yes, there'll be a backlash amongst the Democratic Party leadership against the GOP. But that will be a much slower burn and be aimed at Republican politicans and their political agenda in general - not amongst the general public.

There's a strong case to be made that the reason the GOP went after Clinton so hard was due to the Democrats having gone after Nixon so hard. That's a twenty year gap. So, if the same holds true, you could expect the Democrats to be seeking their cold revenge on the GOP as of the 2008 election cycle!

So, in this ATL, Clinton is out in 1998 and Gore gets to sit behind the Big Desk for reals. He is facing some truly dismal prospects as the GOP will be surging all around him. AND when the Dot.Com bubble bursts in 2000 it will be Gore who gets the blame. That's not a good scenario for Al Jr. to win in November of that year.
 
Top