AHC: Clinton '88

Let's say Bill Clinton decides to run in 1988, and he gets the nomination. Clinton picks Gephardt as his running mate. Can he beat George H.W. Bush in November? Certainly he'd be a much tougher opponent. Maybe Bush makes the wise choice and picks Dick Lugar instead of Lugar's male-Palin seatmate.
 
I'd say no. He would be four years younger then, and he was already relatively young (hey, middle-age is young for Federal politicians) and the country was did fairly well why Reagan held the reigns. No point in rocking the boat in 1988. One thing can be said about Slick Willy; he wouldn't go on that laughable tank ride.
 
I'd still say Bush wins, though it will be much closer than OTL. Clinton is a much better debater than Bush, without mentioning that Bush won't be running against a MA liberal but a Southern DLC Democrat.
 
Clinton himself claimed he could have won in 1988, but that he was not prepared for the Presidency at that point.

If Clinton's nominating speech fiasco repeats itself throughout his 1988 campaign, I can't see him winning.

Clinton is going to face a much tougher campaign than he did in 1992. He has to run against the Bush 1988 campaign. How the race turns out depends in large part whether Atwater can sink Clinton like he did Dukakis. I'm not sure whether Clinton's infidelities would have the same effect on the electorate as Willie Horton, and whitewater as a scandal was still years away as far as I know.

Clinton probably does better in the south than Dukakis did. At the very least, he wins his home state in Arkansas.

If his infidelity doesn't sink him, and Whitewater doesn't show up in 1988, then I think Clinton has a good chance of hanging on to more of the early lead Dukakis had than actually happened in 1988.

It really depends on a lot of factors though. Obviously Perot isn't running, so if you happen to believe Perot's the reason Clinton won in 1992, then that's going to hurt him. Also, the recession which also arguably propelled Clinton into office in 1992 hasn't really happened yet AFAIK, so there's that.

Due to those factor, while I'd like Clinton to win in 1988 (and 1992 for that matter) I think Bush wins. 1988 really wasn't Clinton's year.
 
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