AHC: Chinese to the Moon in the 70s/80s

[Emperor Norton I]

Well, the issue is that while 714 was Geminesque, it had Titan II throw capacity provided by the Long March 2C (roughly 3.5 tons for each). All the Gemini moon mission proposals used LVs much more capable than Titan II, and in many cases still had to use rendezvous. The lunar-flyby ones tended to use dual-launched EOR Titan IIIC (13.1 tons), while the lander versions generally required a full-up Saturn V. So they'd need something even more than the OTL Long March 2E, which clock in at about 9.5 tons to LEO, or an even more extensive set of rendezvous and assembly in LEO. Going from no space launch capability at all to either of those in a decade with any sort of reliability would be....quite an achievement.

Indeed. Therein lies the challenge. As I said, I very much interpret it as 'to the moon, by duct tape', and being very fly by night. Even more so than the Soviet plan, which was fly by night itself. The benefit the Chinese have over the Soviet program (which may be the only benefit period) is that, whereas the Soviets were in a race which they had only entered into seriously several years after their competitor, the Chinese are in no competition, so they don't have to rush in a similar fashion. The scenario walls gives from 1971 to 1989. That's an 18 year period.

I'm not familiar with Chinese rocketry, and I've found it difficult to find data on it for this era. As you said, they would need to improve on the LM-2C similar to the Titan III. Whether the Chinese would have been capable of refining the LM-2C in a needed way on a reasonable time scale is something I don't know. I think something that should be discussed is how the Chinese rocketry technology would or could develop in this timeline compared to the actual timeline. The Chinese would also need proper booster technology, which I'm not sure whether or not they had during the era, or how able they were to develop or manufacture them if need be. Most certainly the program would need to be EOR.

I do wonder, given that the Shuguang is so much a copy of Gemini, how much of the Gemini program was declassified by this time or what the public had open access to. If not a lot, then it stands to reason that the Chinese may have gotten information by illegal means, unless they just looked at the Gemini and made it look like the pictures. If the Chinese did have information on the Gemini program, by whatever means they may have it, it could ease the burden of the Chinese by allowing them to just rip things off. Not just the lunar proposals, but anything for their space program.

 

[Emperor Norton I]

I do wanna keep half of this conversation on the topic of what could have been with the technologies, but the other half should focus on the realities of it. The biggest thing is economics and the ability to pay for everything and fund everything. China of the period has economic limitations, thanks in large part to Mao.

I'll quote one of the Shuguang articles.

What was necessary for it to succeed: China had a brief period of economic reform in the few years between the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution (roughly 1961-66). If it had continued, rather than falling prey to an increasingly paranoid and eccentric Mao, the Chinese manned space program at least had a chance.
The main piece of evidence for this is China’s FSW satellites, which were also designed by the man selected to design Shuguang-1: Wang Xiji. This remarkably good unmanned satellite was designed to re-enter from orbit and soft-land somewhere in China, and furthermore it was somewhat larger than the manned Mercury capsule (1800kg as compared to 1355kg, and the Vostok’s 4730kg). They flew successfully, including a re-entry, three times between 1975 and 1978. There are even rumours, likely wrong, that the Chinese had a failed manned launch of an FSW-derived capsule in 1980.
Rumours aside, the Chinese had some of the necessary technology to put an astronaut into space by the early 80s, despite the horrible dislocations the country had gone through since 1931. A two-decade head start on the 1980s economic reforms (though unlikely to have been as successful as the ones that actually did happen) would have given a Chinese government sufficiently interested in a propaganda coup the wherewithal to become the third country to launch a man into space almost two decades before they actually did it.
One small aspect of Project 714 did come to fruition. Xichang in Sichuan Province was selected as the site for its launch facility, and while very little was done at the time it became the third of China’s three main spaceports in 1984.

That said, the Chinese did manage to get a satellite program going instead of this alternate, manned program. That is impressive, and it lends to the prospect that perhaps China could manage a successful enough manned program in spite of it's limitations. It seems like there must be some ease on a Chinese program in comparison to the US or Soviet one of the space race era, as they're following in their foot steps and information has already been discovered and things experimented with by the US and Soviet programs before them. That said, it does come across like it would be very haphazard.

If you want some economic aid in the scenario, perhaps Lin Biao succeeds in his coup (if there was a coup planned and it wasn't paranoia) against Mao. That could curb the excesses of Maoist eccentricities which devastated China's well being. If I recall correctly, Lin Biao was a Russophile, so perhaps he cozies up to the Soviets and they kick in a bit of aid to help.

 

[Emperor Norton I]

Another issue for an earlier Chinese space program is that it doesn't seem like it can't afford to have many astronauts die or washout. At least not easily. Requirements to be an astronaut were not just technical skill, but political as well. To get into the Shuguang program, you had to be a perfect, devoted, Mao loving Marxist with not a speck on you. Out of 19 astronauts during the OTL pick, it's not going to be the easiest to find more if a capsule explodes or crashes or is lost in orbit or space. Nor if an astronaut were to be killed in some plane crash or get hit by a car, or somehow be injured. Those things happened in the American and Soviet programs. The Chinese would seem to have harder luck were it to happen to them. I'm also not sure how many able military men China of the era would have who would pass the test, and who the government would be willing to send to the space program. The nation is still mostly peasants during this period.

There's going to be more danger with trying to put a Chinese man on the moon compared to just orbiting the earth. There's a very real probability that at least a few of these astronauts are going to die. That's taking into account the averages for things that have gone wrong in the history of man in space, plus the limited state of the Chinese space program which presents a work hazard, plus the increased dangers and increased number of chances for things to go wrong by trying to go to the moon, as well as the increased complexity of an EOR based program.
It's a Catch 22; one that doesn't necessarily derail things, but may make it a tight rope. The more limited the program the Chinese have, the more steps they would need to take. But the more steps there are, the more chances there are for things to go wrong. And the limitations and haphazardness inherent in a 70s era Chinese space program mean that there's an increased possibility for things to go wrong, which increases with each step. And the status of the program, which is the reason for all the rest of that, would suffer if anything did go wrong.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

That said, the Chinese did manage to get a satellite program going instead of this alternate, manned program. That is impressive, and it lends to the prospect that perhaps China could manage a successful enough manned program in spite of it's limitations. It seems like there must be some ease on a Chinese program in comparison to the US or Soviet one of the space race era, as they're following in their foot steps and information has already been discovered and things experimented with by the US and Soviet programs before them. That said, it does come across like it would be very haphazard.

Docking two capsules is probably possible. So is a 'tiangong' style 'space station', although the latter probably waits at least 10 years after their first launch, probably more like 15 or 20. A manned moon mission is right out. Imo.

Manned program, certainly. But it would have been a rather limited one. Something very like Gemini, although with a slower rate of flights, or like the modern Shenzou, but with smaller, more primitive craft.

I also suspect the astronauts chances of surviving would have been even worse than the Soviets.

 

[Emperor Norton I]

Manned program, certainly. But it would have been a rather limited one. Something very like Gemini, although with a slower rate of flights, or like the modern Shenzou, but with smaller, more primitive craft.

I also suspect the astronauts chances of surviving would have been even worse than the Soviets.

It would certainly have been limited. China could only do so much economically and had only so much production capacity. I would posit that, though limited in launches per year, there would be more compared to the OTL. If you look, there were only 2 or 1 launches of the LM a year, and sometimes none. I would put that down to a lack of a dedicated manned space program, and had there been one, I believe the launches, while remaining limited in number, would have increased.

And most certainly it would have been more dangerous with more chances for fatality. I think you'd have a fair bit of the Soviet school of thought where you threw things out there hoping they worked and hoping to get lucky, all while constrained by Marxist bureaucracy and political intrigue, and worries about falling out of favor or being liquidated and replaced and dealing with areas where people are indeed liquidated and replaced. China of this area still wavers in and barely out of being an oversized North Korea. That does not exactly bring to mind reliability and safety. And, as I believe has been mentioned before, the Chinese astronauts aboard the Shuguang craft would be subject to much greater G-forces than astronauts of the Soviet or American space vehicles. So you have a rough ride up with a rocket, capsule, and technology with not the best safety factor. Space is very persnickety, and it is very easy to blow up on the way up, and very easy to have things go wrong in space and on the way down. There were a multitude of times where there almost was disaster in the Soviet and American programs, not even counting the times things did go wrong. For the Chinese, things would be turned up to 11, so to speak.

I think the Chinese could pull it off, but they'd do so based so much on 'duct tape', razor thin success, and luck, which is why it would be such a major feat. And all the while, they'd have to do with problems, break downs and the occasional disaster.

The Chinese program would have some benefits: it wouldn't have to race against anyone so it could take it's time, a Marxist regime easily covers up failure and shines a light on success, a dictatorship allows it to proceed despite any public opinion, and most of the work in figuring out what can be done in space and how to survive and go into space and all that has already been done by the Americans and Soviets so all that would need to be done is to make sure the Chinese technology works. And, of course, they can rip off all the available designs and information of the Soviets and Americans.

And it has it's problems: a lack of a race may mean the government loses concern over space and does not sufficiently lends support, if the program continues at all. While a Marxist regime can cover up failures, failures can also lead the authority in charge to punish people, remove individuals and replace them, and potentially cancel areas and cancel the program as a whole. Knowing Maoism and the disasters that result from the "brilliance" of the dear leaders, you could easily have people needed (scientists, engineers, etc) be liquidated and replaced with incompetents. You could also have the program tasked to accomplish things beyond its capacity, with the dictator threatening punishment on those involved if it's not accomplished, pushing those involved to push the limits thus resulting in fatalities, injuries, etc, and the dictator throwing a hissy fit when/if it isn't accomplished. You could also have Mao micromanaging things when he has no business, resulting in disaster. And you could have weird requests like using 'such-and-such' a fuel instead of another, or using more steel as a sign of industry or something, which ignores logic and engineering.

The biggest problem is the Cultural Revolution, in which all logic and math and reality went out the window, and China basically shut down all intellectual institutions and rounded up the intellectuals. It'd be amazing if the space program survived that, and if it did, it wouldn't be one which did anything worth anything, and it'd likely collapse in due time. Really, Mao needs to be politically outmaneuvered and forced into early retirement, or die by accident, health or coup. You can suffer the Great Chinese Famine, but the Cultural Revolution, or at least a prolonged on as occurred under a Mao that was still in power, cannot go on.

On the other hand, some of that Maoist whackiness could lead to some Vlad Tepes worthy things and some black comedy and some assorted zaniness based on Mao's ignorance, such as using political prisoners for experimentation instead of monkeys or dogs, or shooting seeds at the moon to try to terraform it, or trying to fake things that didn't happen and being called out on it.

I would also posit that because of the relative primitiveness of the Chinese space program, coupled with a regime that could do anything (which any dictatorship is), that it could be a repository for some of the dreams of the space age that didn't come about because technological innovation meant we didn't need them, or because political opinion meant they ended. Things like the space station that didn't come about because unmanned satellites were able to do the same things it was to do, or anywhere a robot was sent to do a job instead of a person.

 

[Emperor Norton I]

(Bump)

Anyone further?

 

[e of pi]

I think I can see a Chinese Gemini program, maybe some kind of smallish station program like this, but I have trouble seeing them getting more than circumlunar. Basically, to me, it comes down to LVs and engine tech. The largest ever Chinese LVs in OTL are about 11 metric tons to LEO, and they're mostly hypergolics. Using that, here's some numbers:

Given Earth-to-TLI delta-v of 3200 m/s and an ISp of 315s (pretty good for hypergols), it'd take about 11.5 metric tons in LEO to get a 3500 kg capsule to a free-return path around the moon. The TLI stage would be about 8 metric tons loaded. This could barely fit on something a bit bigger than a CZ-2E (like a Titan IIID), or could be made by docking a crew capsule (launched on a CZ-2C) with a separately launched TLI stage, flown on a CZ-2E. However, this only gets to the moon, it doesn't stop there.

To just get into orbit, you need another 900 m/s and then another 900 m/s or so to get back out. That's then about 21.8 mT in LEO. So now we need something the size of Proton (!), or we can assemble from smaller stages--but now even the TLI stage (at 15 tons) is too big for a CZ-2E. So we need a bigger launcher even for that.

Even just a bare-bones 550 kg (dry) lander bumps things up to over 32 tons, and a TLI stage large enough to require a Proton by itself.

Basically, they need either a lot of money, a lot of assembly skill, or a lot better engines to even have a chance of doing it in 15 years or so. Even with that, they need bigger rockets--much bigger, considering that while I've been mentioning the ~10 ton CZ-2E, they only have the 3.8 ton CZ-2C at this point. Given than the pace of the OTL Chinese program has been anything but rushed, I don't see that as all that likely. A sort of incremental Gemini-evolved space station like the link I dropped at the start of the post would be about all I could see.

 

[Vonar Roberts]

The main problem is and always will be delta-v requirements for a moon shot. The Long March 2C is such a tiny rocket, only capable of delivering 8.5 tons to LEO. For a comparison the Saturn V could launch 103 tons to orbit. The N1 could do 80-90 tons, and the Space Shuttle could launch something along the lines of 40-50 tons.

From what I've seen in other rl proposals the minimum requirements for a Moon shot is probably 70-80 tons, for a modest lander your probably looking at 90 tons.

I've read a lot on the Chinese space program, and at the turn of the century the Chinese did consider a 4-piece mission with extensive orbital assembly requiring 4 Long March 5 launches, the long march 5 is capable of launching 25 tons into LEO but even that was considered too ambitious and they are apparently waiting for the Long March 9 or 10 rocket at around the end of this decade before doing their moon shot.

For China any proposals before the 2000's without a suitable heavy lift rocket was just hopes and dreams, and not really feasible. Now however what if China purchases Energia from the cash strapped Russian Federation in the 90's when they acquired information on the Soyuz, and incorporated it into their space program like they did with Soyuz? That becomes a completely different ball game.

 

[Vonar Roberts]

Marx would be facepalming so hard if he could have seen the Soviet and Chinese space programs. Pointless bourgeois glory-seeking, wasting vast wealth that could have been used to build up agriculture and feed the starving masses.

After about the 80's when they started to reform the communist system the Chinese unlike the Soviets have had enough food from domestic sources to feed the majority of their people for quite some time, and in the process they managed to go from a population of about 600-700 million to 1.3 Billion. You don't get that kind of population growth if your civilians do not have full bellies.

Also your point of view fails to take account of the strategic situation of the time. A civilian space program is useful as it allows you to make advances in rocketry without having to test launch ICBM's, something that could have a destabilizing effect if tensions between the great powers were high at the time of the launch.

 

[Emperor Norton I]

Ignoring political realities and money for a moment, or at least the finer details of them, and focusing on just what was physically possible, could the Chinese have used the aforementioned space station as the center point for assembly of a craft capable of going to the moon, launched in multiple parts for assembly via multiple launches over a period of time?

Regarding financial realities, Mao needs to be sent off to retire to a farm or slip on a banana peel and suddenly die for this to work. Regardless of if Mao gets a whim for even fanatic support of the program rather than sweeping it up in his paranoia, he will incompetently mismanage it all and sweep up China in self serving fanaticism and incompetent management which will hinder and retard economic growth, intellectual growth, production capability, etc, etc. Mao could go nuts for space and push it forward gloriously, but it will then run into the wall of Mao ruining everything else and neutering what it is capable of. China needs a figure or a body of figures in power who are capable of allowing China to grow and not get caught up in anything resembling the Cultural Revolution. For the purposes of this discussion, they'd need to have that feature while also lending support to the space program and not canceling it on the old thought of "let's spend the money here on earth for more pressing matters".

 

[e of pi]

Ignoring political realities and money for a moment, or at least the finer details of them, and focusing on just what was physically possible, could the Chinese have used the aforementioned space station as the center point for assembly of a craft capable of going to the moon, launched in multiple parts for assembly via multiple launches over a period of time?

Well, the station would be more about getting good at longer operations in space and getting better at dockings. Basically, the total dry mass of that 32 ton mission doing a one-man open-cockpit couple hour lunar stay would only need about 6.3 tons of dry mass, the other 28.5 tons are propellant for one stage or another. It's a solvable problem to get the hardware up there on one rocket, then dock another vehicle and tansfer that propellant. Using hypergols is actually a bit better for this, because they don't need cooling to avoid boil-off.

On the other hand, that kind of large-scale transfer of propellant in space has basically never been done in the 70s IOTL, and it means a lot more mission complexity. I believe very strongly that it's doable, but ultimately the question is this: what's the rush for China? There's no dishonor in second place, certainly, but it's not like the US is going back themselves. Even in OTL, the pace of the Chinese manned program has been rather measured, and why not? They get plenty of press and prestige internationally about Chinese space power with the occasional manned flight, and without the expense of all that R&D a more aggressive program (particularly one aiming to do anything than a very short--like, and hour or two--flags-and-footprints mission to the moon) would need. If they were to fly something like the US Gemini program using the CZ-2C between 1975 and 1980, and something like the OTL CZ-2E (~9 tons to orbit) supporting continuations of that with something like that Gemini-based space station through the 80s, they'd be arguably matching at the least the Soviet Salyut and Mir programs. At that point, in theory they'd have the experience with docking and maybe limited prop fuel transfer to consider a depot-based stripped-down lunar mission, but I can't see one happening before the mid-90s unless it somehow turns into a crash program, and...well, it's not like the US or Russia is racing, either.

 

[Michel Van]

On the other hand, that kind of large-scale transfer of propellant in space has basically never been done in the 70s IOTL, and it means a lot more mission complexity. I believe very strongly that it's doable, but ultimately the question is this: what's the rush for China? There's no dishonor in second place, certainly, but it's not like the US is going back themselves. Even in OTL, the pace of the Chinese manned program has been rather measured, and why not? They get plenty of press and prestige internationally about Chinese space power with the occasional manned flight, and without the expense of all that R&D a more aggressive program (particularly one aiming to do anything than a very short--like, and hour or two--flags-and-footprints mission to the moon) would need. If they were to fly something like the US Gemini program using the CZ-2C between 1975 and 1980, and something like the OTL CZ-2E (~9 tons to orbit) supporting continuations of that with something like that Gemini-based space station through the 80s, they'd be arguably matching at the least the Soviet Salyut and Mir programs. At that point, in theory they'd have the experience with docking and maybe limited prop fuel transfer to consider a depot-based stripped-down lunar mission, but I can't see one happening before the mid-90s unless it somehow turns into a crash program, and...well, it's not like the US or Russia is racing, either.

or the Chinese could go way of Titan IIIC putting large solid booster (out the Dongfeng ICBM program) on CZ-2C
Here the Chinese could launch the Station much sooner either as MOL or the Gemini Modular Space Station configuration. (they can be connected to larger space station )

there also option to build large core CZ-2C with 4 or 6 big booster, for lunar mission.

 

[e of pi]

or the Chinese could go way of Titan IIIC putting large solid booster (out the Dongfeng ICBM program) on CZ-2C
Here the Chinese could launch the Station much sooner either as MOL or the Gemini Modular Space Station configuration. (they can be connected to larger space station )

As far as I can tell, the Dong Fengs are all liquid-fueled hypergols, at least in the 70s and 80s. They might be able to build a multi-core CZ-2C, which with four full boosters could get to a perhaps 16 ton capacity, but any more and they'd definitely need a larger core. Again, it's very doable, but is it doable for the money China's willing to spend? I'm not sure.

 

[Michel Van]

As far as I can tell, the Dong Fengs are all liquid-fueled hypergols, at least in the 70s and 80s. They might be able to build a multi-core CZ-2C, which with four full boosters could get to a perhaps 16 ton capacity, but any more and they'd definitely need a larger core. Again, it's very doable, but is it doable for the money China's willing to spend? I'm not sure.

they switch on Solid from on Dong Fengs 11 in 1980s

 

[Emperor Norton I]

Being the wide eyed dummy I am, what about the prospects of the Chinese getting into the space station game (as mentioned as the more plausible prospect; and maybe this thread should ignore the moon and discuss that, at least in part) and then going off of that with an attempt to go from there, and assembling a craft in orbit via EOR method to try to venture to the moon?

The moon doesn't have to be a set goal from day one; I very much doubt it would be so in any scenario, outside of maybe some Maoist chest thumping with no basis in real intention, and maybe only a "we'll do it someday somehow" attitude. It could however come as "we've achieved this. Could we perhaps go to this next step" where it concerns making a space station. The moon is psychologically the next step from a long term settlement of Earth's orbit.

 

[Archibald]

assembling a craft in orbit via EOR method to try to venture to the moon

This a solid account of Chinese rocketry effort since 1971.

http://www.spacelaunchreport.com/cz.html#components

So let's start from that CZ-2C. It can rapidly morph into the CZ-2E that boost 10 tons to low Earth orbit.

We suppose the Chinese go to the Moon using the CZ-2E... because that the best they can do in the short term.

Chinese rocket family is not that complicated. CZ means "long march" and the CZ-2, CZ-3 and CZ-4 are all the same rockets only with different upper stages and missions.
In short, the Chinese are stuck at Atlas II or Ariane 4 level even today. The coming Long March 5 will break that deadlock and provide the Chinese with an EELV or Ariane 5 or Proton heavy launcher.

this mean that from 1970 to 2015 the maximum the Chinese can send to orbit is the CZ-2E - 10 tons in Earth orbit.

The Chinese would launch first a couple of 10 tons space stations (Tiangong, hey, that what they are doing today ).

After that they need a booster stage to escape Earth gravity.

The simplest way is to use CZ-2E second stage. It reaches orbit empty and weights 90 tons if refuelled.
Attach that to the space station. Then refuel it, one CZ-2E after another.
Every CZ-2E loft a single fuel pod to the Tiangong. The pod docks to the booster stage and propellant flows from the pod into the booster stage.

The Soviet did that in 1978 OTL: the first Progress ship poured some fuel into their Salyut 6 space station.

You'll need 10 CZ-2E (10*10 tons), and then the booster is complete.
The good news is that, at 90 tons the booster stage should loft a decent payload toward Moon, perhaps 30 tons.

With the booster topped off, loft a single-man Shuguang manned capsule and then the lunar lander (10 tons, the maximum allowed by a CZ-2E once again). For the sake of comparison, the American LM weighed 15 tons, but the Soviet counterpart, the LK, weighed 5 tons (single man !)
The big booster should be more than enough to send the Shuguang and lunar lander in lunar orbit.
After that just proceed like Apollo.
Total number of launches: twelve or more.

Why it is so complicated ? because the Chinese lack both a) a Saturn V and b) liquid hydrogen. Liquid hydrogen has a lot of energy and that allows to slash mass of the booster stage to escape Earth gravity and go the Moon.
Mastering hydrogen is perhaps even more important than building a Saturn V.

 

[e of pi]

Here's a rough shot at what would seem doable to me as far as a Chinese program, with "enough" budget, but nothing "crash program/super urgency":

1972: IOTL, Shuguang capsule program cancelled and astronaut group dissolved after they realized they needed a final budget infusion to meet the 1973 goal and reach first launched. ITTL, whatever the politics, they get one, as well as approval for a limited station program basically stealing this. Development approved on various small N-Room Stations and a Suguang with rear-mounted docking ring, hatch, and control station.
1973: Early test flights of FSW recoverable satellite (recon) and late in the year, first unmanned flight of Suguang. In triumph, CZ-2E equivalent approved (*CZ-2E from here on)
1974: Early Shuguang flights, perhaps two or three? Starts with relatively short flights, then moves to longer durations (couple days? EVA?)
1975: More Shuguang flights--Continue EVA? Rendezvous w/o docking between two capsules, or capsule and an unmanned FSW?
1976: Introduction of "dockable" Shuguang, first Chinese docking in space (Shuguang to One-Room Station, launched on seperate CZ-2C launchers). Roughly 30-day durations. Second One-Room mission, 60 days. First test flight of CZ-2E equivalent, ~9 tons to LEO.
1977-1979: Two-Room Station introduced. Since it's resuppliable, it makes use of this to launch heavily stripped-down on a CZ-2C, requiring extensive fit-out on orbit. Anyway, it's got a couple spare mooring ports where spacecraft can be moved once they dock, and we see the introduction of a 3.8 ton Supply Module. Capable of supporting four astronauts for brief periods, or two for much more extended ones, it's certainly matching the superpowers: Shuttle Spacelab missions are similar duration and capability, but lack the "drama" of a space station that stays up (despite there being at least some arguable utility in getting the whole lab back, and it has many more crew available to work in the lab while it's up), while Salyuts at this point are 3-man affairs, occasionaly jumping to 6 for handover. I'd expect to start seeing reaction to China appearing in the Us and Soviet programs about now. For the Soviets...more money for Buran and Mir? Maybe they focus on TKS as a crew vehicle, seeing the benefits of capsules? For the US, maybe an earlier alternate Freedom-like program, begun under Carter, or something like the Science and Applications Manned Platform which was basically a large power truss, which then was expanded into a man-tended lab then a full station by repeated additions of shuttle-launched modules on every support flight? Anyway, kicks in the butt all around.
1980: First CZ-2E launched station, the "four-room" consisting of 2xTwo-room, one optimized for living and lab space, one for power production and systems support, bolted together on the ground. Capable of supporting six for brief periods, but probably more like a 4-person crew. That'd be two crew of 2 on station, staggering rotation of one crew every 30 days or something (for ~60 day total stays) or 45 days (for ~90-day total stays).

The early 80s are then consumed for the Chinese with operating and expanding the four-room station, operating Shuguang/Supply Ship combos to it. Maybe a one-off One-Room+depeleted stage artificial gravity demo flight? That'd be a heck of a way to stick one to the US and Russia while still doing really useful science. Anyway, I'd say around 1983 you could start seeing moon missions as a potential for approval, but if the approved plan is anything more than flags-and-footprints, I can't see any hardware actually beginning operational flights before the 90s, not with the stations to operate. Assuming a ~1983 lunar mission program approval, based on using a manned fuel station as a base for refueling modified upper stages:

1983: Approval granted for EOR-based fuel depot lunar mission program. New fuel depot will be based on Four Room station, with additioal equipment to support cross feeding of fueling lines from the various docked supply craft to a docked modified upper stage. New hardware needed: lunar return/extended-duration Shuguang, a couple different upper stages (a Small Stage of ~7.7 tons gross mass and a Big Refuelable Stage of ~4.7 tons dry mass capable of holding about 52 tons of fuel), and the all-important lander (roughly 10.5 tons gross mass, a really stripped-down 2-man vehicle).

Mission Plan: Big Refuelable Stage burns to place the stack into a free-return trajectory. After a year to fill the blasted thing, it goes sailing off into interplanetary space, or you can get cute and aim it at the moon to create seismic events for the detectors left behind by Apollo--two points for hitting the Eagle, one point for taking out any other hardware. The Small Stage is used twice, first to place the stack in lunar orbit, then to get the capsule back home at the end. The lander does what it claims to do.

1986: First of the 7.7-ton upper stages flies aboard a CZ-2E, and docks on automatic pilot with a pre-placed "circumlunar FSW", modified for lunar return capability. The stage is then tested by burning this stack out of LEO and into a loop around the moon. Upon the recovery of the FSW and it's precious onboard film, China has its first high-quality imagery of the lunar surface. Repeat as needed to get good imagery of all landing sites--this may take several flights, but that's okay.
1987: Ongoing FSW circumlunar flights. Note at some point, you can easily swap out the FSW for a Shuguang, and get the prestige of being the second nation to put men into lunar space (though not orbit--yet). New "fuel depot" flies, and the first Big Refuelable Stage flies to dock with it (carrying about 4 tons of fuel inside it to start). A series of tankers (derived from the Small Stage with precision manuevering engines and docking systems) arrive at the station, each transferring 7 metric tons of fuel into the Big Refuelable Stage. It takes about seven flights to fill the big stage all the way, less for a partial fill.
1988: Apollo 8 redux. Take a partially-fueled Big Refuelable Stage, Shuguang, and a Small Stage. Big Stage to TLI, Small Stage to get Shuguang into and back out of lunar orbit.
1989: Test lunar lander in LEO (slightly short-fueled, launched on CZ-2E). First unmanned operations, then later in the year first docking of the lnader and the Shuguang to test manned operations.
1990: Well, let's go to the moon: take the first fueled Big Refuelable Stage, a Shuguang, a lander, and a Small Stage. First flight I'd recomend either as an Apollo 10-style near-landing with fire-in-the-hole abort test, or an unmanned landing with the crew staying in orbit.
1991: After laboriously filling another Big Refuelable Stage, go to the moon again. This time, stick the landing. Or don't. Either way, give a speech about the surviving Spirit of Communism because the Russians need more to cry into their vodka about in this moment of national loss as the country comes down around their ears. There's been 13 years of butterflies in the US program by now and 8 years of you specifically saying you're aiming for the moon, so be prepared to be friendly with any sort of US, or joint US/ESA lunar landing crews you may be sharing the moon with. Try not to look too longingly at their hydrogen engines or video of their 20+ ton launchers, you got here without them, right?

 

[Emperor Norton I]

I hereby award you victory of the internet. Though now that all is said and done with that scenario (and you are in a far better position to know anything than I so I won't argue anything) the political realities are something to be brought into play. As said, it would only benefit China's space program if Mao slipped on a banana or was out maneuvered and forced to retire. China won't leap so hard into Capitalist glories without having the failures of the Cultural Revolution to run from, but it will moderate for Mao's personality cult Communism to something Communist but more moderate, and it can continue it's economic improvement which the Cultural Revolution gobsmacked. In a Cultural Revolution environment, science will be hard no matter what it is because intellectuals are being harassed and Mao invents reality, and if you disagree with Mao and don't doublethink, you'll be sent away somewhere. On the other hand, moderates seem to have a tendency against space; the common rallying cry being why spend the money there when we can spend it on earth. I have no basis for assuming Mao's successor(s) would have that position. It's just a concern I'd have. If the likes of Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping would be unfavorable to space, that would create the paradox of the better the situation for a space program, the less support for it.

A quick question based on the scenario:
The United States and Soviet Union and all will no doubt be aware of what is going on with the Chinese in the prep to go to the moon; I don't see how you can hide things going on. They'll obviously have some reaction to that progression from space station to moon landing even before there is a moon landing. I do wonder at the reaction they'd have seeing that development, as well as the final landing on the moon.

There is a difference between just landing on the moon and the build up to landing on the moon; something happening vs the wait for it to happen, and the anticipation (if that's the right word) of it happening before it does, knowing that it will. It seems to me that outside of China, there would be a mix of anxiety and acquiescence, depending on who you ask and sometimes in the same person. The moon race ended like a clean s***; America was the first there, no one else was going nor was going to and we kept going, and then when the Saturn's production run was over and the program had used up what it had or sent it to a museum, we stopped going. It's very completist, and the psychology of it sense then have been very completist; we could start again, but we'd have to start because it already ended.

The psychology of this would seem to me to be dragging something back up from the past that we thought was a past, and making it a present and a future, and one which neither the Soviet Union nor the United States was part of. Again, I think you'd have a feeling of
"we already did it" and "let them do it too", "who cares?". And I think you'd also have a feeling of anxiety at "they're going to do it", "why aren't we doing it?", "oh no, we can't do it.", "we'll no longer be number one", etc. And that would be different from person to person, and sometimes within the same person as a mixed feeling. Americans do not ever want to feel outpaced or feel second place, and I do think a Chinese moon landing, where it's not even the Soviets who had a fair shot and were the accepted competitor, but China, would give Americans a bit of a feeling like our gold medal was being taken off our neck. For the Soviets, I think there would be similarly mixed feelings, but the anxiety wouldn't be an accomplishment getting taken from them (as they did not land), but it would be a shame that they did not land on the moon, if there was ever anyone else who would have landed on the moon, it would have been the Soviet Union, but China was going to land on the moon. And regardless of what happened, the Soviets would never be the second nation to the moon, so that inner psychology of the unofficial second place would be knocked down to third, and once you get another power on the moon, the almosts no longer matter. The hypothetical does not matter, as you have enough powers on the moon for what actually happened to be all that matters.