AHC: Chinese forces never take Seoul in 1951

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
the challenge is, with a PoD *after* theChinese offensive of nov 24, 1950, is to have US-ROK-UN forces recover thheir cohesion fast enough that they hold a lline at or above the 38th parallel.
 

Pangur

Donor
Big ask seeing how close to the border Seoul is. The US-ROK would have to know the attack was going to happen and then get enough forces (both ground and air) in place. At a pinch maybe have a three US carriers doing some exercise of the Korean coast?
 
Perhaps the Army Divisions advance in a less Cavalier fashion than that practiced OTL and like the marines (I appreciate that the terrain is different) are able to fall back in a more robust fashion Stopping the Chinese North of the internal Korean boarder
 
Off the cuff its really difficult to see how. The US 8th Army was so wrong footed by that date. Even if everything had been done right from the 24th its a tough task. The other time I remember this question it was suggested that Walker die in November & Ridgeway take over imeadiately. OTL it took 2-3weeks for Ridgeways changes to restore things, & the exhaustion of the Chinese army contributed in a major way.

Maybe the Chinese offensive is stopped at or in Seoul?
 
Walker Gets Pneumonia/Run over by a car/wounded while cleaning his pistol and is replaced by Ridgeway?

I take it that Ridgeway is the natural successor?

Ridgeway drops the Knut on his subordinates and the units sharpen up their act and don't have to 'relearn' lessons learned the hard way in WW2 before the Chinese attack

Edit: Nope POD is before the 24th - my bad
 
A narrow focus on geography makes a defensive line at Wonsan across the waist of the peninsula seem obvious and there was probably enough time between the initial Chinese probes and the main attack for it to happen. The problem is that I've never seen a credible argument for how the necessary preparations could have been made, given the leadership in place at the time.
 
I'd like to see a TL in which UN forces stop after taking Pyongyang and establish defensive lines while ROK forces continue north to the Yalu. This probably wouldn't entirely prevent the Chinese incursion but I suspect the distance would make them feel less encircled and when they did intervene the UN would be prepared. It might have to be a MacArthur SI to work ;)
 
Since the Third Battle of Seoul is fought between Dec 31 and Jan 7, a POD on November 24 only gives the UN forces a month to regroup and hold the line. Walton Walker died on Dec 23 and Ridgway assumed command on Dec 25. Given the disarray in UN forces because of MacArthur's attitude during the advance north, I don't think that's enough time to straighten things out.

Still, it's possible that the UN forces might hold the line at Seoul is Ridgway had more confidence that his forces would not be encircled and overrun. Perhaps taking over earlier would have done that. It would be a very close run thing. I don't think there is any obvious magic bullet here. It's certainly possible, but not with a high degree of certainty.
 
Top