AHC: Chinese Dreadnaughts

[Avrorrange]

Because those two idiots were the main reason China was not unified until 1950.

No. Chiang and Mao would have likely been nobodies if the 1910s were handled better by people like Yuan Shikai and co. Yuan Shikai’s unsuccessful power grab was the reason why China was in a perpetual state of civil war till the 1950s. Chiang and Mao are largely irrelevant because by the time they came to power, the age of battleship was already on the way out, and China too damaged by the civil wars.

China’s hopes of getting dreadnoughts thus rested in butterflying the fracture of the 1910s which caused the decades long civil wars in the first place, not some naval successes in the 1880s-1890s. They alone won’t solve a twat if the collapse of the Qing Dynasty still occurred as violently as otl.What you also failed to realize is that even with the regionalisms, the Beiyang navy was de facto the national navy, with the Nanyang navy’s best ships regularly poached by them.The central government had to power to reassign ships to the Beiyang navy and the Beiyang navy was clearly the central government’s favorite.

 

[McPherson]

No. Chiang and Mao would have likely been nobodies if the 1910s were handled better by people like Yuan Shikai and co. Yuan Shikai’s unsuccessful power grab was the reason why China was in a perpetual state of civil war till the 1950s. Chiang and Mao are largely irrelevant because by the time they came to power, the age of battleship was already on the way out.

Object lessons 1.

Object lessons 2.

Yuan Shikai, political incompetent and double-crosser bastard.

You have to prove to me a Point of Departure that is viable. You cannot. Not with 1900-1914 China in an uproar and Sun Yat Sen in the shadows. After that circus it becomes the Chiang/Mao show. AND AFTER 1927 it really becomes the Mao/Chiang show. Not even Stalin wanted anything to do with that one.

 

[Avrorrange]

Object lessons 1.

Object lessons 2.

Yuan Shikai, political incompetent and double-crosser bastard.

You have to prove to me a Point of Departure that is viable. You cannot. Not with 1900-1914 China in an uproar and Sun Yat Sen in the shadows. After that circus it becomes the Chiang/Mao show. AND AFTER 1927 it really becomes the Mao/Chiang show. Not even Stalin wanted anything to do with that one.

Yuan would need to delay proclaiming himself emperor and live a bit longer than otl. They are not impossible. If he is able to live longer then he should be able to carry out many of the modernizing reforms he had in mind and getting the support needed to attain greater power without causing the massive wars in otl. OTL’s warlord era was largely caused by the fall from power of Yuan, which were both caused by Yuan‘s premature declaration of supreme power and his own untimely death.

 

[McPherson]

Yuan would need to delay proclaiming himself emperor and live a bit longer than otl. They are not impossible. If he is able to live longer then he should be able to carry out many of the modernizing reforms he had in mind and getting the support needed to attain greater power without causing the massive wars in otl. OTL’s warlord era was largely caused by the fall from power of Yuan, which were both caused by Yuan‘s premature declaration of supreme power and his own untimely death.

Too many people, rightly, wanted him dead. He was lucky he died of "natural" causes before he was assassinated as he had done to so many of his rivals. I mean the Japanese double crossed him, the British pulled their support and the Americans really wanted him dead. (Memories of 1900.). So where is the method by which a Chinese battleship emerges from the mess he created in 1915?

 

[Avrorrange]

Too many people, rightly, wanted him dead. He was lucky he died of "natural" causes before he was assassinated as he had done to so many of his rivals. I mean the Japanese double crossed him, the British pulled their support and the Americans really wanted him dead. (Memories of 1900.). So where is the method by which a Chinese battleship emerges from the mess he created in 1915?

There’s a difference between wanting him dead and actually successfully carrying it out. If Yuan can continue the modernizing programs for a decade or two, then purchasing battleships should be possible, especially if he purchased second hand ones.

 

[McPherson]

There’s a difference between wanting him dead and actually successfully carrying it out. If Yuan can continue the modernizing programs for a decade or two, then purchasing battleships should be possible, especially if he purchased second hand ones.

Grasping at straws is not a valid basis of an argument. The fact he renounced his "emperorship" indicates he knew his time was over. All that remained was the dying and he did that quickly enough at 56.

 

[Avrorrange]

Grasping at straws is not a valid basis of an argument. The fact he renounced his "emperorship" indicates he knew his time was over. All that remained was the dying and he did that quickly enough at 56.

As I’ve mentioned, the POD would be him realizing that proclaiming a monarchy would be a bad call and that he live several more years afterwards. These are basic pods on this board. This is not Sealion.You may as well call out all the authors on this board if you have a problem with that.

 

[McPherson]

As I’ve mentioned, the POD would be him realizing that proclaiming a monarchy would be a bad call and that he live several more years afterwards. These are basic pods on this board. This is not Sealion.You may as well call out all the authors on this board if you have a problem with that.

Not the point. He could have called for free elections, rigged them (as was done) and still been blown up by a bomb or shot down like the man he was, because by 1914, he had double crossed, killed relatives of, backstabbed and/or angered so many opponents that he was on everyone's remove as soon as possible list. Even his own generals wanted him dead. He will not survive.

 

[Avrorrange]

Not the point. He could have called for free elections, rigged them (as was done) and still been blown up by a bomb or shot down like the man he was, because by 1914, he had double crossed, killed relatives of, backstabbed and/or angered so many opponents that he was on everyone's remove as soon as possible list. Even his own generals wanted him dead. He will not survive.

And how many dictators didn’t behave like that? His generals remained loyal to him until they realized that Yuan had no intention of giving power to them after his death.That was the tipping point,until then Yuan served as their mentor and benefactor. Most people in China (even now) simply did not give a fuck about democracy.

 

[McPherson]

And how many dictators didn’t behave like that? His generals remained loyal to him until they realized that Yuan had no intention of giving power to them after his death.That was the tipping point. Most people in China (even now) simply did not give a fuck about democracy.

In 1915, they did. Circular arguments never end well. Please provide some reasonable historical basis for Yuan Shikai to live to or even beyond 1918 when WWI is over and people start coming for him in earnest?

 

[Avrorrange]

In 1915, they did. Circular arguments never end well. Please provide some reasonable historical basis for Yuan Shikai to live to or even beyond 1918 when WWI is over and people start coming for him in earnest?

And please do show evidence that the 1915 war was actually supported by the vast majority of the country. All of that was also triggered by the restoration of monarchy rather than rejection of autocratic rule, which so-called democrats such as Sun Yat-Sen also practiced.Most people at the time simply did not care about democracy. The voter turnout for the 1912-1913 election for example was only 10%.

As for the inter-war period, most of the great powers were frankly tired of war, and were highly reluctant to get into new wars. They couldn’t even enforce a lot of the peace terms, so they are suddenly going to go for Yuan in earnest?

Thing is, even if Yuan still dies on time in 1916, things are gonna be still better if he appointed a proper successor while his reputation was still intact(no restoration of monarchy).

 

[McPherson]

And please do show evidence that the 1915 war was actually supported by the vast majority of the country. All of that was also triggered by the restoration of monarchy rather than rejection of autocratic rule, which so-called democrats such as Sun Yat-Sen also practiced.Most people at the time simply did not care about democracy. The voter turnout for the 1912-1913 election for example was only 10%.

As for the inter-war period, most of the great powers were frankly tired of war, and were highly reluctant to get into new wars. They couldn’t even enforce a lot of the peace terms, so they are suddenly going to go for Yuan in earnest?

Thing is, even if Yuan still dies on time in 1916, things are gonna be still better if he appointed a proper successor while his reputation was still intact(no restoration of monarchy).

Evidence already supplied above (^^^). Redundant requests are pointless. If the Western Powers headed for Russia in 1919 what do you think?

 

[The Undead Martyr]

If Sun Yat Sen avoids getting cancer, I think it's plausible he can consolidate the ROC as a reasonably intact entity in the late 1920s, probably comparable to Pilsudksi's authoritarian regime in Poland; a reasonably intact China, faced with increasing Japanese militarism in the 1930s (unlikely that they would be able to take Manchuria but the ambitions were still there), would obviously be interested in acquiring a navy. Of course averting the Revolution and reforming the Qing Government (difficult; maybe the Guangxu Emperor outlives Cixi?) or somehow keeping it from fragmenting China as horribly as OTL in the 1910s, would be better, and probably necessary to have a full on dreadnought.

 

[AdA]

The easiest way would be for China to get a surviving IJN battleship as reparations after the war.
Nagato survived the war. It would be useless for the civil war, but could make an interesting POD for all sort of modernization in Taiwan.

 

[BlackDragon98]

The easiest way would be for China to get a surviving IJN battleship as reparations after the war.
Nagato survived the war. It would be useless for the civil war, but could make an interesting POD for all sort of modernization in Taiwan.

Interesting, but where the budget for maintenance or upgrades if the ROC Navy want to keep it?

 

[AdA]

Interesting, but where the budget for maintenance or upgrades if the ROC Navy want to keep it?

The ship could go to the USA for a refit paid by US military aid to the nationalists. Work would be slow, and the ship would be in service just in time to assume the role of "the steel wall of Taiwan". It could perform some shore bombardent missions until the PLAAF got their antiship skills up, at which point it would assume a defensive role, being ready to sortie (under air cover) against an invasion fleet.
It could be deployed to Vietnam, where it could provide fire support for Taiwanese forces deployed there.

 

[Father Maryland]

Interesting, but where the budget for maintenance or upgrades if the ROC Navy want to keep it?

I could kind of see it happening. But it'd end up a nominal flagship that's effectively completely nonfuctional from day one slowly rusting away.

 

[BlackDragon98]

The ship could go to the USA for a refit paid by US military aid to the nationalists. Work would be slow, and the ship would be in service just in time to assume the role of "the steel wall of Taiwan". It could perform some shore bombardent missions until the PLAAF got their antiship skills up, at which point it would assume a defensive role, being ready to sortie (under air cover) against an invasion fleet.
It could be deployed to Vietnam, where it could provide fire support for Taiwanese forces deployed there.

Where are they going to get ammo for the main gun after the Japanese supply runs out?
Shore bombardment eats ammo like I eat smoked meat sandwiches. Very quickly.

 

[Whiteshore]

The easiest way would be for China to get a surviving IJN battleship as reparations after the war.
Nagato survived the war. It would be useless for the civil war, but could make an interesting POD for all sort of modernization in Taiwan.

Or Chiang somehow deciding that the USS Alaska was a cool ship.

 

[AdA]

Nagato and Mutsu saw little gun action. Nagato would have inherited the whole stock of IJN 16'' ammo.