AHC: China's Defeat in Opium Wars Averted

wormyguy

Banned
There's no way China could "modernize" enough to defeat/draw Britain, which was at the apogee of its power in relation to the rest of the world. Around this period the Ottoman Empire and Russia, both *actual* great powers, having undergone their own "modernizations," from a much closer starting point, still suffered humiliating defeats at the hands of Britain.

You need to prevent the war from happening in the first place.
 
The Qing government just needed to ease their restrictions on domestic opium growing and selling early on. There's no particular reason why China couldn't just set up its own opium farms. The only thing preventing it was the government, which had prohibited opium. If they started growing it before contact with Europeans, then the Opium Wars as we know them would be butterflied away.

Yes but that will not avoid war with Britain, which was going to happen eventually since without the opium trade Britain was running a massive trade deficit with China. It will also only make the opium addiction problem more widespread.

There's no way China could "modernize" enough to defeat/draw Britain, which was at the apogee of its power in relation to the rest of the world. Around this period the Ottoman Empire and Russia, both *actual* great powers, having undergone their own "modernizations," from a much closer starting point, still suffered humiliating defeats at the hands of Britain.

China was a lot further away than Russia or the Ottoman Empire. The British only managed to send something like 7,000 men in the First Opium War. So it was possible for China to draw with limited reforms. Give it another 20 years and it would be impossible without complete modernization.
 
China was a lot further away than Russia or the Ottoman Empire. The British only managed to send something like 7,000 men in the First Opium War. So it was possible for China to draw with limited reforms. Give it another 20 years and it would be impossible without complete modernization.

So if the war is delayed, Qing China does even worse?
 
So if the war is delayed, Qing China does even worse?

Worse against the British. But China's biggest enemy was internal rebellion. The original premise of this thread is changing the First Opium War to butterfly away the Taiping Rebellion, this is plausible with either a draw or avoiding the war altogether. Fighting to a draw would actually be preferable, since it may highlight the need for reform.
 
Trying to weigh the plausibility myself; might help if someone could layout the events following, say, an averted Opium War that would bring about this modernized China...

I`m doubtful.
As I said Japan was a special case. The hundreds of years of peace of the Edo era really helped the country develop internally, cities were huge and thriving, farms were as efficient, even technology and knowledge about the world had been coming in to an extent via the Dutch in a controlled fashion.
Japan was pretty centralised and small, it had brilliant cross-country communications, and perhaps most importantly when it did decide to pull a meiji it was pretty late in the day and lots of other countries were in a position to invest- due to all the different foreign interests competing in different areas one of them didn`t take a dominant role and push Japan into a protectorate status.

China...well the big problem with China and modernising applies even today, China is big. Even with the current modernisation of China not much of it has spread into the central regions.
For a true Meiji`d China I`d think you would have to Balkanise it a bit- I could certainly see some coastal Chinese countries doing very well indeed out of their modernisation.
I suppose China could modernise in the way the China of today is, or Russia of the time, some cities become modern whilst the hinterland remains medieval, but....there are so many other problems to contend with. The decentralised system was iffy, the ignorant arrogant court, the sheer size making it such a prize and easy to attack, etc....
 
China...well the big problem with China and modernising applies even today, China is big. Even with the current modernisation of China not much of it has spread into the central regions...

I suppose China could modernise in the way the China of today is, or Russia of the time, some cities become modern whilst the hinterland remains medieval, but....there are so many other problems to contend with. The decentralised system was iffy, the ignorant arrogant court, the sheer size making it such a prize and easy to attack, etc....

I agree that if China's going to modernize inthe 19th Century, that's how it's going to happen. The problems of (de)centralization, administrative reform at the court, and needed mitary reform to bulk up it's defenses are certainly sound like the kind of things that would need to be explained in a rough TL...
 
If the POD is in the 1830s the best thing would be to avoid war and get Chinese merchants involved in overseas trade. One of the problems the British had exporting to China was they didn't couldn't figure out the Chinese market. They would just ship over things like wool to subtropical Canton only to find no buyers. If Chinese merchants could go to India and Europe instead, chances are they could find something to buy. This would eventually led to the introduction of modern Industrial Revolution technology back to China. I agree Qing China could not modernize as quickly as Japan, but they would be far better off than OTL.

Alternatively if war is unavoidable, the best outcome for China would be a mixed outcome. Defeat would lead to internal rebellions which would derail any efforts of reform as the Taiping Rebellion did. Victory could also be a bad outcome because it would entrench existing problems. The British expedition was not unbeatable as I explained in the previous post. That same year another British army was annihilated in Afghanistan.
 
Sounds like China fighting to a draw is a close consensus on being ideal; any idea what exactly the PoD should be for that to happen? Delaying the war? Or something else?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
What about foreign assistance for the Chinese?

What if Russia aided China in the first or second opium war?

The Great Game was not at its height by the time of the first opium war, but it had started. Possibly the Russians could help the Chinese as a move within the international rivalry

Russia's goal would be to shut out British power, and prevent the British from making another India out of China. Massive openings of Chinese ports also threaten to completely eliminate the residual profits of the overland trade with China.

What was state of Russo-British relations in 1839-1842?
Cooperative in the Middle East, where London and St. Pete both supported the Ottomans in opposition to France and its support of Muhammad Ali.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Turko-Egyptian_War

However the Russians and British were already at odds in south and central Asia, finding themselves on opposing sides of the first Afghan war, contemporaneous with the opium war.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Anglo-Afghan_War

Reaching a little further back, they had some trouble to.

Britain and Russia had disagreed over Poland in 1830, and over the Congress of Verona, and French intervention in Spain, between 1821 or so and 1830. At the same time, in the 1820s, they collaborated over Greece.

Britain's Second opium war was 1856 and 1860. Russia was too busy, at least in the least 1856 version, to participate, although that was because it was fighting Britain at the time.

What type of aid could the Russians have provided the Chinese if they chose, particularly over their invulnerable, but thin ground supply lines? Some advisors on artillery and some pieces, especially some lighter kinds, a cavalry contingent? Depending on how bold they are they can do some smuggling by sea.
 
What if Russia aided China in the first or second opium war?

The Great Game was not at its height by the time of the first opium war, but it had started...

That may actually be a point for delaying the (First) Opium War -- if hostilities break out when Russia is more aggressive, and in a position to do something, China could stand a much better chance, regardless of reform in the intervening years. The only question is how long does Russia need?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
That may actually be a point for delaying the (First) Opium War -- if hostilities break out when Russia is more aggressive, and in a position to do something, China could stand a much better chance, regardless of reform in the intervening years. The only question is how long does Russia need?


John could you elaborate on what you mean here. You were thinking that russia's capability and will to get involved would be implausible in 1839-1842 but could become more realistic later on?
 
John could you elaborate on what you mean here. You were thinking that russia's capability and will to get involved would be implausible in 1839-1842 but could become more realistic later on?

Well, more likely -- as mentioned, the Great Game was not yet at it's height -- plus, the PoD is in the 1830's, so there are more time for the butterflies to gather...
 
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