AHC: China Financial Collapse by 2015

Your challenge is to have China face a large financial collapse by 2015 (2013-2015 is the time period I'm looking for), and have it be within reason. Mega bonus points if it doesn't entangle the US much or at all in the downturn.
 
Your challenge is to have China face a large financial collapse by 2015 (2013-2015 is the time period I'm looking for), and have it be within reason. Mega bonus points if it doesn't entangle the US much or at all in the downturn.

Having a Chinese financial collapse be an already acknowledged fact instead of 'I think it is happening if you kind of squint' won't be that hard. Have someone/organisation in China start a panic earlier, say with real-estate speculation triggering a collapse because local governments are supposedly heavily dependent on real estate sales for financing.

Not having it entangle the US?

Have the country so much manufacturing/final assembly has been shifted to disappear up its own smoke stack and have it NOT affect the US?

Good luck with that. I can see where the Mega bonus points come from.

It would be easier to go the other way and have The Great Depression/Dark Ages - The Sequel!!! - triggered by it instead. Possibly with a Chinese Civil War fought with Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Weapons, ecosystem collapse, nuking of nuclear power plants and chemical factories leading to mutant zombie armies roaming the steppe towards Europe with Putin denying anything is wrong while tossing more NBC warheads at them, green glowing mutant Panda Bears roaming the deserted city streets armed with AK-47's and RPG-7's...

Sorry, got carried away. I wouldn't rate that as having a more than 50/50 chance of happening by 2020 anyway so not to worry. Though I keep thinking about writing that Timeline, it sounds interesting, in the curse sense.

No I haven't taken my medication in some time, why do you ask?
 
What he said.

But have you taken your medication?

For the OP, having a financial collapse can be quite simple - open it up earlier and make a mega-collapse as per OTL Asia 1997 except it never happens and gets pulled in with China's fall. But not having the world suffer tremendously is hard.
 
China is far too intertwined with the US with all the manufacturing and holding US debt for anything major to happen in China not to effect the US.

You would need a POD decades ago to keep China separated from the US, but even with that China is so large it would be hard for it not to have worldwide effects which would wind up effecting the US indirectly.
 
China is far too intertwined with the US with all the manufacturing and holding US debt for anything major to happen in China not to effect the US.

You would need a POD decades ago to keep China separated from the US, but even with that China is so large it would be hard for it not to have worldwide effects which would wind up effecting the US indirectly.

Same as I think the US and China are to connected to not have even a minor problem in one affect the other in at least a minor way .What the OP suggested would lead to the collapse of the US economy soon after the collapse of Chinese manufacturing .
 
I wonder how a Chinese collapse would affect the city of Vancouver because for the last 20 years, the Vancouver real estate market has been driven by
Chinese investors trying to hide .... er ..... invest their millions in offshore markets. The Vancouver real estate market has been hyper- inflated since the turn of the century.
If Chinese real estate speculation ceases, thousands of Vancouver construction workers, real estate agents, etc. with be cart on the dole.
 
I wonder how a Chinese collapse would affect the city of Vancouver because for the last 20 years, the Vancouver real estate market has been driven by
Chinese investors trying to hide .... er ..... invest their millions in offshore markets. The Vancouver real estate market has been hyper- inflated since the turn of the century.
If Chinese real estate speculation ceases, thousands of Vancouver construction workers, real estate agents, etc. with be cart on the dole.

What are you talking about? Those condos are the pinnacle of Canadian industrialism and innovation. Think of all those other Chinese investors that want property in Vancouver.

But in all seriousness China isn't just manufacturing anymore, it's roughly 45-45-10 manufacturing, services and agriculture. Domestically China has a lot of the characteristics of a developing nation but yet at the same time the sheer scale of the country makes it a developed nation internationally; that is treating other developing nations as an export market and resource sink. Canada and Australia's currency are currently more linked to the RMB than the dollar. It is well integrated into Global Supply Chains and creates enough value added that it will reach a trading nation like the United States no matter what.

Now on the other hand, the stock market is a newcomer in China. Many banks are state-owned and backed by unlimited money if it comes to it and consumer confidence is not linked to the stock market. Most people in China have their savings in cash or property, the latter is volatile but the former is strictly controlled. IMO the OP is taking too much from developed nations and forcing it on a developing country with a different economic structure, it won't be that bad.
 
Could an Albania style collapse happen to China? Like one brought on by shady investment/pyramid schemes.
 

Cueg

Banned
Could an Albania style collapse happen to China? Like one brought on by shady investment/pyramid schemes.

Well, a few things.

China is going to "financially collapse" assuming the next round of stimulus fails, and subsequently take the rest of the world down with it. Such is the nature of the global economy, a nature that cannot meet your last condition.

Also, you can't really have a 2013-2015 crash, barring of course a few bats from space. Your best bet would be a more catastrophic downturn in 2009 which, in turn, takes China down with it.
 
China is far too intertwined with the US with all the manufacturing and holding US debt for anything major to happen in China not to effect the US.

You would need a POD decades ago to keep China separated from the US, but even with that China is so large it would be hard for it not to have worldwide effects which would wind up effecting the US indirectly.

You have the causation backwards. A slowdown in the US is more likely to have enormous ripples in the China than vice versa. The scenario is something like:

1) US modestly slows down
2) Manufacturing slows in response in China
3) Unemployment starts to climb in China
4) Manufacturers default on loans to Chinese banks
5) Rents/real estate prices drop further hurting Chinese banks
6) Spirals on until financial collapse

The reason this didnt happen in 97 or 08 is because the PBOC has huge dollar reserves that give it flexibility to intervene in the currency markets and bail out their banks. People love to believe their currency reserves are a sign of economic strength but really its a sign of their economic fragility - exposure to currency moves and a weak banking system.
 

Cueg

Banned
You have the causation backwards. A slowdown in the US is more likely to have enormous ripples in the China than vice versa. The scenario is something like:

1) US modestly slows down
2) Manufacturing slows in response in China
3) Unemployment starts to climb in China
4) Manufacturers default on loans to Chinese banks
5) Rents/real estate prices drop further hurting Chinese banks
6) Spirals on until financial collapse

The reason this didnt happen in 97 or 08 is because the PBOC has huge dollar reserves that give it flexibility to intervene in the currency markets and bail out their banks. People love to believe their currency reserves are a sign of economic strength but really its a sign of their economic fragility - exposure to currency moves and a weak banking system.

A downturn in China has, as were seeing today, a tremendous effect on the greater East Asian/Oceanic region. What then, happens when these regions slow down? Right now, US growth is being primarily driven by domestic consumption, but how long do we expect this to last?
 
Could China have a Japan-like situation where it never recovers? I believe that when Japan perennially goes into recession (as it has for the past 20+ years) the US isn't terribly effected, despite Japan carrying a lot of economic heft (especially back when it was the 2nd largest economy).

Basically, would there be any way to set back China's economy, a lot, without effecting the US?
 
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