AHC: China Conquers India
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ASB (well, not literally ABS, but you know what I mean) with that PoD; to even begin to try and take India China would first have to take the entire northern half of Indochina (you can't invade through the Himalayas), then it'd have to mount a huge, incredibly resource and manpower taxing slow war to gradually take chunks of India.
In short it's not geopolitically, economically, politically, militarily, strategically or demographically possible.
In short it's not geopolitically, economically, politically, militarily, strategically or demographically possible.
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SunDeep
Banned
Conquer how? Could it do so in a similar manner to Indochina and Korea IOTL, by turning native kingdoms into vassals? Cause that's the only way it'll be even remotely plausible.
Not possible. The British didn't lift a finger to try and actually control territory until Dupleix and the French beat an Indian force handily- only then was it game on.
China does not have a significant arms advantage where it can successfully transport its soldiers to attack India in a really meaningful way; at best you could see nominal clientage in the South, but that'll go away after a generation at the most.
Saphroneth
Banned
Assuming a Song version of the military revolution, and possibly an industrial revolution, it could be done. If the military revolution basically takes place in China, to the extent of getting Pike-and-Shot like formations before anyone else, then at least the military question is considerably simplified. Push further and you can possibly do the like-the-EIC route, though preventing those technological advances propogating will be tricky.
It will mean the Mongols get their heads beaten in, though, if the practical muskets and cannons come along early enough. Which is helpful.
Of course, getting the Song military and industrial revolution is the tricky part... and preventing it from spreading around Indochina and getting to India in time that the locals are themselves experimenting and inventing is about as hard.
SunDeep
Banned
Getting a Song Chinese military & industrial revolution, putting them in a position to conquer India, would be extremely difficult. Having the Han Chinese pull off this feat? Not gonna happen.
Saphroneth
Banned
Which is why I said "assuming"... it's certainly hard, but the Song is probably the most likely avenue for the Chinese to get enough of a military effectiveness differential, since they were the ones who had access to the Big Force Multiplying Technology and didn't develop it.
All that means is that it's vaguely plausible... compared to the other options.
By Han I believe he's meaning an ethnic Han ruled states, as opposed to the Mongol ruled Yuan Dynasty, not the actual Han Dynasty, which ceased to exist 780 years before by the time of the cutoff date.
Yes I was referring to ethnic Han, not the Han dynasty, mostly to keep people from using the Yuan Dynasty as an easy out.
I was thinking more along the lines of naval dominance, since the Ming appeared to be capable of shipping hundreds of thousands of soldiers throughout the Indian Ocean, although if you feel that most or all of Indochina needs to fall first that's fine, as unconquered Indochina isn't central to the challenge.
That, and I don't see why it need be incredibly slow and taxing, unless there is some reason why the Chineese should be unable to play the Indians off against one another for their own ultimate gain.
Vassalage is fine, but I would want it to be a vassalage with significant benefits for China (at the very least regular tribute and the ability to call on some forces from the region in times of war). Plenty of people swore loyalty to the emperor and gave gifts when confronted with Zeng He's fleet IOTL, but there weren't many lasting effects of these encounters once the fleet left.
Keeping China technologically ahead for a while can only be good for the cause. Looking further, how early do you think the Chineese could have developed a kind of industrial revolution, and what would it look like? It seems like the level of centralization and technological advancement China already enjoyed ought to have given them a leg up in the industrial game, but obviously that didn't happen IOTL. Was that just a consequence of weak emperors or the wrong government focus, or was it more deeply engrained in Chineese society than that?
Frankly, that's all you're going to get in this situation; India is simply too isolated from China to be able to implement actual vassalage.
Flocculencio
Donor
Another example of how people don't really understand the scale of the regions involved.
The sole reason Britain was able to conquer India like it did was because it got lucky, had India not imploded do to the collapse of the Mughals and Southern Indian states Britain would never have taken it.
Now I say the above because, like Britain would not have been, China would not be able to 'play states off each other'.
As to slow and taxing, well we're talking about an area that's atleast near China if not at the same level technologically (and in several cases with superior military tactics and such), but one that's home to hundreds of millions of people even at the time.
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Seeing as there's no way any Chinese ruler would deliberately try something like this, I would say the only way this can happen is accidentally.
Say the Chinese embrace and dominate the Indian Ocean trade networks. They would come to control ports on the Indian coast. Eventually warlords of Chinese descent would establish themselves in India, perhaps through a combination of force, bribery, and marriage into the local power structure. Over time their off-springs become the new ruling caste.
Meanwhile a particularly energetic emperor come to the throne, perhaps with a new dynasty. The new regime brings the Indo-Chinese fiefdoms under nominal rule of the emperor and allow him to arbitrate conflicts while having autonomy in practice. Not too dissimilar to the Chinese states during the Spring and Autumn period.
Say the Chinese embrace and dominate the Indian Ocean trade networks. They would come to control ports on the Indian coast. Eventually warlords of Chinese descent would establish themselves in India, perhaps through a combination of force, bribery, and marriage into the local power structure. Over time their off-springs become the new ruling caste.
Meanwhile a particularly energetic emperor come to the throne, perhaps with a new dynasty. The new regime brings the Indo-Chinese fiefdoms under nominal rule of the emperor and allow him to arbitrate conflicts while having autonomy in practice. Not too dissimilar to the Chinese states during the Spring and Autumn period.
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If China were experiencing an industrial revolution, they would face one problem worse than the English ever did - economies of scale. One reason Chinese regimes "failed" to promote commerce abroad was that the Chinese internal market simply dwarfed any conceivable external one. If the regime had to focus on one security concern, one source of income, et cetera, they would wisely choose the empire's own economy. An industrial revolution entails a rapid expansion of production, but it also requires that someone buy all those newly manufactured goods. To start this was simple for England, positioned next to and tiny compared with Europe, but eventually they turned to the expedient of deindustrializing India in order to increase the market for their goods.
China in the same circumstances would basically have to turn to this expedient (assuming an IR that as OTL begins in cloth manufacturing). There were already enough clothes produced to clothe the Chinese. If you can do it cheap, people may buy extra sets of clothing, but that's a finite reservoir to draw on. In fact, almost any one place in the world would be a negligible addition to the home market.... Except India.
I won't comment on the general plausibility of the scenario to begin with, but in the event that there was an industrializing China for which international trade was a priority, eliminating native manufacturing in captive markets would obviously be policy. That is the one scenario under which I could envision China conquering or attempting to conquer India.
China in the same circumstances would basically have to turn to this expedient (assuming an IR that as OTL begins in cloth manufacturing). There were already enough clothes produced to clothe the Chinese. If you can do it cheap, people may buy extra sets of clothing, but that's a finite reservoir to draw on. In fact, almost any one place in the world would be a negligible addition to the home market.... Except India.
I won't comment on the general plausibility of the scenario to begin with, but in the event that there was an industrializing China for which international trade was a priority, eliminating native manufacturing in captive markets would obviously be policy. That is the one scenario under which I could envision China conquering or attempting to conquer India.
There would also be the incentive of buying Indian cotton to supply the Chinese textile industry. In the 19th century the motto was "Cotton is King" as it was the biggest money making industry there was. Before pesticides China would not be able to grow enough of it without reducing food production, so perhaps they off shore the production.
Don't troll.
Firstly, Britain (or the EIC, if you'd prefer it be more specific) benefited hugely from Indian disunity, and did play factions off against one another, so I'm not getting your point with the second line of this post.
And secondly, what prevents an alternate China from potentially getting lucky in a similar way to Britain? Offhand, I would say that China's inward and landward focus stand in the way, but Zeng He was proof that, at least as early as the Ming Dynasty, it was possible for that trend to be reversed. If a long term Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean were established
An interesting idea. Didn't the Chineese become a major political force in the pre-Spanish Philippines in a similar manner? Sheer population numbers could probably see a trade oriented China establishing significant Chineese minorities all over the Indian Ocean, which could in theory be used to project some degree of power in the right hands.
Flocculencio
Donor
I'm not. China, a massive country with a huge internal population to control and administer isn't really going to be able to do the same to a similarly large external population. The Brits managed it for roughly 150 years through a relatively decentralised system backed by strong national and economic institutions with almost everything working out perfectly for them.