AHC: Chicago wins bid for 2016 Olympics

With no PoDs prior to the day of voting, on October 2, 2009, how can Chicago be chosen to host the Olympics in 2016? All I know is that the city was dropped in the first round by just five votes...
 
Due to the fact that the IOC tends to not award Olympics to regions back to back, Madrid might be out just because London got the Games in '12. If that doesn't knock them out, an earlier reveal of Spain's debt problems might finish them off, stating that the country can't pay for the Games.

Rio de Janiero is a tough one, but something like a major criminal incident, hostage-taking perhaps, could solidify the perception of Rio as a place where the athletes, media, attendees, etc., would be unsafe.

Tokyo falls under the regional issue again, so the argument would be that since Beijing has the '08 Games, it is someone else's "turn."

A stronger U.S.-based ad campaign, especially if President Obama got involved a lot earlier, could also swing it to Chicago. The region issue also comes into play here, as it would have been 20 years since the U.S. last hosted the Summer Games.
 
Good ideas, though likely with an earlier the OP allows. Does anyone think Chicago stands a much better chance of winning just by coming in a close third in the first round?
 
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