AHC Challenge: Poland survives "The Deluge" intact

For those of you not familiar with the history of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, it was largest, and one of the most prosperous European nations by around 1648. The Deluge changed that. The Deluge involved a Dnieper Cossack rebellion, along with invasions from Sweden to the North, Prussia from the West, and Muscovy to the East, all while facing numerous internal revolts. These wars between 1648 and 1660 cost the Commonwealth about a third of its population, and it never fully recovered its former strength.

So, with a POD no later than 1648, is there any way that the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth emerges from the Deluge with its borders intact, and possibly great internal unity/strength?
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Poland was admittedly large but I'm not entirely convinced "one of the most prosperous" fits... Anyway, that nitpick aside, you'd likely need to find a way to get rid of a) serfdom and b) the Liberum Veto; these two ensure that the people doesn't give a damn about Poland and that the nobles can make it even worse.
 
Poland was admittedly large but I'm not entirely convinced "one of the most prosperous" fits... Anyway, that nitpick aside, you'd likely need to find a way to get rid of a) serfdom and b) the Liberum Veto; these two ensure that the people doesn't give a damn about Poland and that the nobles can make it even worse.

This have little to do with the challenge thought, i.e. avoiding Deluge.
 
It would butterfly the wars of OTL, but their causes are still there: the Cossack problem remains, the Vasas are still on the Polish throne, and the power of the king is still weak. You butterfly away THE Deluge, but a disaster of this kind is waiting to happen unless you can solve the Cossack problem and do something with the political system. That other war may be less devastating though.

Poland was admittedly large but I'm not entirely convinced "one of the most prosperous" fits... Anyway, that nitpick aside, you'd likely need to find a way to get rid of a) serfdom and b) the Liberum Veto; these two ensure that the people doesn't give a damn about Poland and that the nobles can make it even worse.

Liberum veto was first used to break the Sejm after the Deluge, or according to some, in 1652 by a client of the Deluge traitor Radziwiłł. So, yeah...
 
King Władysław IV lives longer. He doesn't die in 1648. Since he is alive, when Khmelnitsky's Uprising starts he manages to negiotiate a deal with Cossacks (he was actually quite popular among them). The register of Cossacks is augmented, some of the Cossack leaders are nobilitated, king promises to protect Cossacks rights and privileges. Polish-Lithuanian-Ruthenian magnates are unhappy with that, and one of the, Jeremi Wisniowiecki, makes a terrible mistake and starts an open rebelion. Since the Sejm hasn't yet debated about treaty with Cossacks, most of the noblemen consider Wisniowiecki's action illegal and unnecessary - if he was against the deal, he would have an opportunity to talk about it in the Sejm. Charismatic Wiśniowiecki gathers around him thousands of most unruly noblemen and marches onto Warsaw. King Władysław calls Cossacks for help.
In the battle of Lvov, Wiśniowiecki defeats first royal army, commanded by the grand hetman of the Crown, Mikołaj Potocki. Unfortunately, some noblemen from WIsniowiecki's army start a destructive raid to west and, mostly by accident and lack of discipline, destroy a few villages belonging to powerful Zamoyski family, killing one of of their less importatn cousins. Important or not, Zamoyskis' honor demands blood and powerful magnates give the king their full support. Some of other powerful families do the same, not because of their love for the king, but because they worry about Wisniowiecki's ambition. Other magnates remain neutral, but their partisants do not interfere in Sejm with king's actions. Wisniowiecki is forced to besive heavily fortified Zamośc and Lvov, since he can not leave two powerful and hostile fortresses behind his back.
Władysław IV is ill, but still has some energy left. In early 1649 he personally leads a second army against Wiśniowiecki. In the battle of Zamośc rebel army is destroyed, Wiśniowiecki himself is killed, and his enormous fortune confiscated. Victory was possible by a timely arrival of Cossack army led by Khmelnitsky.
Victorious king Władysław retuns to Warsaw with an army. His position is now much stronger, but he knows he can not count on gaining an absolute power. Nevertheless, he manages to make the Sejm accept the deal with the Cossacks. Grand hetman Potocki resings his position and in turn is nominated as a special commissioner to protect Cossack rights.
A year later Tatar army invades Ukraine. Now Cossack ask their king for help and they are not disappointed. Royal army arrives in time and together with Cossacks defeats the invaders. But this is too much for the ill king. Cossacks are devastated when two days later their "father the king dies.
During the election freshly nobilitated Cossacks give all their support to Hohn Casimir, Władysław's brother. Meanwhile, Muscovian army invades Lithuania. Lithuanian army led by Janusz Radziwiłł (Radivla) and magnates' private forces fight desperately but they are outnumbered and forced to retreat. Polish and Cossack armies join forces and with quick march surprise the Russians. The war ends with full victory for the Commonwealth.
When Swedis King Charles X Gustav looks for some loot for his army, strong and united Commonwealth, with relatively big and experienced army does not seem like a good candidate. Prussia, OTOH....

Totally improvised TL, feel free to tear it apart.
 
A successful war between the Commonwealth and the Tatars in the 1640s. The Cossacks very much favored a war, and such a conflict would keep them occupied, and content with any plunder they get. Would also have the benefit of potentially destroying an Ottoman client state.

Weaken Sweden. Have the 30 Years War be longer, bloodier, and make it drain the Swedish treasury to the point where they cannot sustain a war against Poland. Have Brandenburg-Prussia so destroyed by the war that it cannot oppose the Polish formal annexation of East Prussia (something the kings wanted to do, but never got around to).

This way, you remove the Cossack threat and the Swedes. The Russians should take care of themselves at this point (they got into the war in support of the Cossacks).
 
Didn't Wladyslaw IV die right after the first major battle (Zolte Wody)? Somehow I see any peace treaty he tries to work out if he lives even a year after that battle, having trouble, due to the fact that the Cossacks just won a battle against the Polish army, and the fact that Potocki's son was killed by the Cossacks.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
This have little to do with the challenge thought, i.e. avoiding Deluge.

The problem is the Deluge will still happen if the structural weaknesses of the polish crown remain. The grand duchy of Lithuania is still angry, the ukrainian cossacks are still angry, and the peasants still don't give a fuck about being poles. Not in the 1650s, but it will happen.
I'll admit my mistake on liberum veto, I thought it predated the 30 years' war. The most obvious alternate option would probably require somehow having Poland succeeding at remaining neutral in the period, but it's pretty much absolute ASB so long as a) royal houses related to other european crowns remain on the throne (fat chance avoiding that) and b) Poland is still catholic with protestant minorities and vassals who also happen to be imperial princes.
 
The problem is the Deluge will still happen if the structural weaknesses of the polish crown remain. The grand duchy of Lithuania is still angry, the ukrainian cossacks are still angry, and the peasants still don't give a fuck about being poles. Not in the 1650s, but it will happen.
I'll admit my mistake on liberum veto, I thought it predated the 30 years' war. The most obvious alternate option would probably require somehow having Poland succeeding at remaining neutral in the period, but it's pretty much absolute ASB so long as a) royal houses related to other european crowns remain on the throne (fat chance avoiding that) and b) Poland is still catholic with protestant minorities and vassals who also happen to be imperial princes.

While the deficiencies of Polish political institutions are going to become more and more apparent with time and will likely led to something bad happening to the PLC at some point, I don't think you can equate that with Deluge, which was caused by a pretty specific sequence of events.
I don't really understand the second part of your post; are young saying that the 30 YW and Polish stance during it is somehow connected with Deluge? :confused:
 
First, while the PLC did not possess a dynamic middle class comparable to the Dutch Republic or England, it did have a an extremely wealthy aristocracy, probably comparable with the richer French Dukes and Spanish Grandees.

Second, great impromptu TL by seraphim74, nice positive feedback loop in favor of the PLC after Wisniowiecki's initial success.

Finally, Poland mostly stayed out of the Thirty Years War. Other than being at War with Sweden during the early part of that conflict, they really did not play an important part in the War, the Ottomans probably played a larger role in that conflict. If anything, Poland could have taken advantage of the War to go to war with Sweden again, which would have benefited the Commonwealth an minimal risk.
 
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