AHC Central Powers fight on into 1920s despite US declaration

austria-hungary is a no-go pretty much no matter what you do. It simply ceases to exist as a coherent nation by 1918 due to increasing seperatist nationalist sentiment and increased leftist political forces.
 
Germany was close to exhaustion and Austria-Hungary was on the brink of collapse.

The Royal Navy blockade and the military leadership's economic mismanagement were strangling Germany.

Throw a fresh US into the mix and it's hard to see Germany fighting for that long without a Russia-style civil unrest and revolution and complete disintegration of the economy.

If it did it would be occupied by the Allies and suffer unconditional surrender like in WWII, but that would probably be well before the 1920s.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Is this possible?

My main thought is that Germany and Austria needed more FOOD.

Mostly what it says on the tin

1919 is easy to get into. Several ways to get a enough more food that Germany collapses in the Spring/Summer of 1919. But to your challenge, we need to deal with food. And we have to deal with running out of reserves. So we probably need a series of POD's.

  • Romania entering the war cost them a million tons of cereal a year. We could just do a direct POD, but they probably go with CP if winning.
  • To deal with the reserves of infantry issue, is it critical that the USA enter the war on time. The easiest POD is for the USW to cause the USA to enter later. Say Germany does a more muddle USW declaration in late 1917. But this is probably not what you are looking for.
  • I can achieve the Romania part with A-H doing a lot better in 1914 and early 1915. But Italy does not enter the war. If you like this POD, and you tinker with the USA entering at the right time, it can go until 1920.
Ok, but you want a POD that keeps it look as much as possible as OTL war. And to do this, you need to avoid major butterflies early in the war. We at least need to get everyone but Romania in the war roughly on time. For this your best choice is to have Russia make peace just a bit before the USA joins the war. Off the top of my head, I would go with.

  • A-H cancels the Italian offensive in 1916. (POD) Keeps troops in east to plan to major attack on Russia.
  • Brusilov offensive is indecisive.
  • Falkenhayn stays in GHQ because Romania does not enter the war.
  • Verdun continues to bleed France and Germany, but not decisively. France falls back from Verdun to better lines.
  • German Victory causes Romania to join CP.
  • Tsar falls a bit earlier. Peace offer is on table, like OTL. Basically, new borders are cease fire lines.
  • Whites accept. (January 1917?)
  • Falkenhayn gets overruled and USW starts roughly on time.
  • USA enters war.
  • Well planned Spring offensive in 1917 splits the British and French lines. British might even have to withdraw from Calais.
  • 1918 is USA reinforcements rushed to battle to stabilize the lines.
  • 1918, Italy and CP fall into de facto or actual cease fire.
  • Here, if and only if, there is enough food; there will be enough food and men for a 1919, 1920, and maybe 1921 campaign. The French will be non capable of offensive operations. The USA will have to take the 2-3 year process of building an army capable of breaking the Germans plus 3-4 A-H armies. Ottomans last longer, because as 1916 deteriorates for the UK, offensive operations against the Ottomans are largely stopped.
 
I think you would need a TL where the Russians pull out early -say in 1916 and the Ottomans remain a pro-German neutral. Mind you, if the Russians pulled out early Britain and France would have less reason to object to the German and Austrian peace overtures of that year. If Russia were to make peace while its infrastructure and economy were still in half reasonable shape and was anxious to resume trade, the Central Powers could go on indefinitely.
 
WI Italy supports Central Powers and they offer reasonable terms to Russia in the Spring of 1917?
Italy pro CP the German simply wins the war by themself by 1917, Italy neutral means Serbia is fucked in 1915, Bulgaria gets in, Greece stay firmly neutral, Romania get in the CP wagon, Russia fold in 1916 by peace or in 1917 for the revolution, no need for USW, because Neutral Italy makes the Brithish blockade way less efficient and after Russia peace out France is simply crushed, probably you have also an Itlain Dow to get tunisia, nizza and corsica.
 
Didn't Field Marshall Haig say the last word on this?

On 3 October 1917 he received a memo from Winston Churchill arguing for the conservation of resources for a decisive struggle in 1920. Haig wrote on his copy “What rubbish: Who will last until 1920. Only America?”
 
You could extend the war some, but the soldiers may have revolted if they had to fight into the 1920s. Frankly by 1914 everyone was pretty sick of trench warfare, and while the Yanks didn’t help a whole lot, they certainly tipped the scales for the Allies, and the CP are going to continue thinking, “How are we going to beat ALL these guys?”

Continuing to fight would succeed in nothin but wearing down and pissing off more people.
 
America might declare war but never actually send an expeditionary force to Europe, confining itself to a naval war in the Atlantic to vindicate America's maritime rights (whose violation after all was the immediate occasion of the DoW). In fact, many people actually expected that in 1917.
 
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