AHC - CCP wins Chinese Civil War without Soviet invasion of Manchuria

CCP could plausibly win even without Soviets in Manchuria!

  • Yes

    Votes: 10 76.9%
  • No

    Votes: 3 23.1%

  • Total voters
    13

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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The challenge is to have the Communists defeat the Nationalists for the control of the Chinese mainland, without, as in OTL, the Soviet declaration of war on Japan, the Soviet invasion of Manchuria and Korea, and without the USSR handing the Communists weapons captured from the Japanese.

Go...
 
This will require some mental gymnastics. But, then again, engaging in such eccentric exercises is what makes alternate history so much fun.

Let's make Henry Wallace the vice-presidential choice of the Democratic Party in 1944. Thus, when FDR goes on to his reward, Wallace becomes president.

Like Truman, Wallace views the atomic bomb as little more than a new kind of explosive. Thus, he authorizes its use against Hiroshima and Nagasaki. However, in the absence of a Soviet attack on Manchuria, Japanese military leaders in China denounce the surrender of their government and vow to continue the struggle.

Wallace refuses to deploy American forces against the Japanese hold-outs in China, but delivers copious amounts of aid to both the Nationalist and Communist forces. True to form, the Communists avoid all but the most perfunctory of operations against the Japanese, thereby accumulating large stocks of American arms and ammunition. When, in 1947 or so, the Nationalists finally defeat the Japanese hold-outs, they are exhausted.

Wallace calls for talks aimed at creating a coalition government. When the Nationalists refuse, Wallace cuts off aid.

The rest, as they say, is history.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
This will require some mental gymnastics. But, then again, engaging in such eccentric exercises is what makes alternate history so much fun.

Let's make Henry Wallace the vice-presidential choice of the Democratic Party in 1944. Thus, when FDR goes on to his reward, Wallace becomes president.

Like Truman, Wallace views the atomic bomb as little more than a new kind of explosive. Thus, he authorizes its use against Hiroshima and Nagasaki. However, in the absence of a Soviet attack on Manchuria, Japanese military leaders in China denounce the surrender of their government and vow to continue the struggle.

Wallace refuses to deploy American forces against the Japanese hold-outs in China, but delivers copious amounts of aid to both the Nationalist and Communist forces. True to form, the Communists avoid all but the most perfunctory of operations against the Japanese, thereby accumulating large stocks of American arms and ammunition. When, in 1947 or so, the Nationalists finally defeat the Japanese hold-outs, they are exhausted.

Wallace calls for talks aimed at creating a coalition government. When the Nationalists refuse, Wallace cuts off aid.

The rest, as they say, is history.

I like this idea, it is a creative solution. The trickiest part might be to having Wallace last in the White House long enough for his policy against the Chinese Nationalists to not be reversed. A collapse all occurring in 1947 and 1948 might be too fast for the ChiNats to fall and too fast for the ChiComs to get in position to take over the whole mainland. I strongly suspect Wallace's Republican challenger will win the 1948 election and take office in 1949 and back the ChiNats even with them refusing coalition government proposals.

If confronted with Japanese holdouts on mainland China, I can imagine US public opinion, and US administrations of any political stripe, from Wallace to Truman to Dewey to Taft, being pretty adamant about the Chinese contributing the great bulk of fighting forces and offensive energy to grind down the holdouts. US troops and taxpayers, whether fair or not, would think the Chinese should "sing for their supper". Of course the US would provide material aid, ammunition, air support and logistic support (airlift and sealift) at very generous levels.

One or both Chinese factions may bless off on the US using nukes against important Japanese held infrastructure or cities, despite the loss of Chinese lives in the process.

At a minimum the US (and British Commonwealth Allies) would contribute ranger and commando units to conduct operations to find and rescue western prisoners held on the mainland. I think the political demand for attempts to be made would be irresistible, even if there are few successes (like if all the prisoners are massacred at the point where the Japanese home islands surrenders.

What forces are used to clear the Japanese out of Korea?

Any other fresh responses to the OP?
 
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