AHC: Carter saves the U.S. Steel Industry

[GeographyDude]

. . . Maybe emphasize that the American people own the steel industry now, and give every citizen some dividend returning stock to make their ownership a direct benefit and something they can relate to.

. . . The other problem with the US government nationalizing the steel industry is that it now owns it. I have little doubt it would add 5 layers of bureaucracy, . . .

Okay, run it indirectly. Look, the transition from manufacturing to post-manufacturing is not going well. We have more than 40 years of slow shrinkage of the American middle class which, in the long-term, is cataclysmic. The middle class is still 50% of American adults, but we are moving in the wrong direction.

I'm a believer in the youtube video, "Humans Need Not Appy" by CGP Grey. and think the best solution is an ownership version of Universal Income, like Alaska or Saudi Arabia, just going bigger. As far as the ownership version, at age 16 and 18 and 21 and at each increase thereafter, for first six months you get your monthly income as an S&P 500 mutual fund, and thereafter you can choose from about a dozen ways to receive your money.

A college textbook on natural disasters said people are often at their best during floods, and often at their worse during droughts precisely because it's a slow-motion crisis. And which sounds more like the crisis of automation?

But all the same, people very much want to believe in a meritocracy and just-world hypothesis, so although I ask you to consider and even push for Universal Income, I don't want us to be a one-note choir. So, we've got to be also asking,

What's second-best and what else can we be doing at the same time?

 

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

The other problem with the US government nationalizing the steel industry is that it now owns it. I have little doubt it would add 5 layers of bureaucracy, pad the rolls enormously, drive down efficiency and have its subsidies go up every year.

You'd have to put someone like Deming in charge; but since it's not WWII and we don't need to outproduce the Axis, nobody wants people like him spoiling their personal empires.

 

[GeographyDude]

http://theconversation.com/lessons-from-the-steel-crisis-of-the-1980s-57751

' . . . Between 1979 and 1982 more than 150,000 steelworkers were made redundant [this was in the United States, and the U.S. term is layoffs] . . . '

smell of betrayal in the air



Why am I putting up a picture of CPR & AED?

To illustrate that it's one thing to lose a friend or family member, but to find out that the people at the scene really tried their best, the paramedics really tried, and the professional staff at the emergency room really tried. It's quite another thing to lose a friend or family member and then be told, well, we knew it wouldn't work, so we didn't try anything. And that's essentially the situation steelworkers faced.

* please note that child and adult CPR is somewhat different

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Why was there an upsurge of conservative anger around 1990?

In spite of the success of Reagan, and Bush being elected to continue the Reagan policies.

And I think it's because they didn't deliver the economic goods. And thus, conservatives thrashed around looking for sabotage and betrayal. They focused on liberals, on environmentalists who supposedly at base really hate capitalism. The fact that Bush went back on a pledge of "Read my lips, No new taxes," even though he got a budget deal with a Democratic Congress that was probably worth it. And we focused on an worse-than-average dictator Saddam Hussein as if he was uniquely bad, and enthusiastically went along with a Persian Gulf War, and continued economic sanctions even after the war (which actually caused more fatalities than the war itself).

That what was supposed to be working wasn't, so we went in search of enemies both internal and external.

 

[Johnrankins]

smell of betrayal in the air



Why am I putting up a picture of CPR & AED?

To illustrate that it's one thing to lose a friend or family member, but to find out that the people at the scene really tried their best, the paramedics really tried, and the professional staff at the emergency room really tried. It's quite another thing to lose a friend or family member and then be told, well, we knew it wouldn't work, so we didn't try anything. And that's essentially the situation steelworkers faced.

* please note that child and adult CPR is somewhat different

-----------------------

Why was there an upsurge of conservative anger around 1990?

In spite of the success of Reagan, and Bush being elected to continue the Reagan policies.

And I think it's because they didn't deliver the economic goods. And thus, conservatives thrashed around looking for sabotage and betrayal. They focused on liberals, on environmentalists who supposedly at base really hate capitalism. The fact that Bush went back on a pledge of "Read my lips, No new taxes," even though he got a budget deal with a Democratic Congress that was probably worth it. And we focused on an worse-than-average dictator Saddam Hussein as if he was uniquely bad, and enthusiastically went along with a Persian Gulf War, and continued economic sanctions even after the war (which actually caused more fatalities than the war itself).

That what was supposed to be working wasn't, so we went in search of enemies both internal and external.

More likely because Bill Clinton got elected. The Liberals had an upsurge in anger when Bush and Trump got elected.

 

[GeographyDude]

More likely because Bill Clinton got elected. . .

No.

Anger on the part of U.S. conservatives was building even before the Iraq invasion of Kuwait on Aug. 2, 1990.

 

[Johnrankins]

No.

Anger on the part of U.S. conservatives was building even before the Iraq invasion of Kuwait on Aug. 2, 1990.

Anger is always there with both Liberals and Conservatives. They are huge groups and there are a lot of angry people out there. The big surge was when Clinton was elected, as you would expect.

 

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

[Workplace Safety Sign]

2 6 posts without current politics

 

[GeographyDude]

https://beltmag.com/40th-anniversary-youngstowns-black-monday-oral-history/

My thesis is that this ^ led to simmering anger which manifested itself as displaced anger in various ways.

 

[Johnrankins]

https://beltmag.com/40th-anniversary-youngstowns-black-monday-oral-history/

My thesis is that this ^ led to simmering anger which manifested itself as displaced anger in various ways.

That it is your thesis doesn't make it correct. I can make a thesis that it was winged unicorns. That doesn't make it correct.

What the hell did the country owe steelworkers? They were paid for their job, they weren't guaranteed a job for life in a steel mill. The most I could see doing is to give some loans at 1/2% over the 30-year treasury rate, fire every executive and grab all the cash except for one-year expenses from the steel union.

If they want to be bailed out they must pay a price so industries and unions aren't encouraged to make bone-headed decisions expecting Uncle Sugar to bail them out. When we bailed out the banks I would have split all of the banks we bailed out into 50 pieces, one for each state. They sink or swim from there.

 

[GeographyDude]

. . . The big surge was when Clinton was elected, . . .

I agree that Brother Clinton blew it. I've even done whole threads:

Pres. Clinton more successful on middle-class economics his first 100 days?
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...le-class-economics-his-first-100-days.408852/

a different 1993, Clinton doesn’t piss away early momentum on healthcare reform?
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-different-1993-clinton-doesn’t-piss-away-early-momentum-on-healthcare-reform.464334/

His three biggest mistakes:

1) didn't follow through on a middle-class tax cut, instead let economists talk him into deficit-reduction (!) (!) (!)

2) too much political capital on healthcare, and

3) being all in favor of his talented and personable wife Hillary being in the thick of things on healthcare, rather than nongovernmental ways to improve the country like most previous First Ladies.​

Bonus points: If someone can explain why Eleanor Roosevelt was much more popular than Hillary Clinton, even though Eleanor was arguably more gender nonconforming.

This is why Clinton was elected (five commercials, 30 seconds).

:49 "We're going to ask the rich to pay their fair share, so the rest of American can finally get a break."

1:37 "They've [Clinton and Gore] called for an end for welfare as we know it." [So this part should not have been a surprise]

2:00 see esp. this last commercial which argues whether Bush or Clinton will be better for a middle-class tax cut.

---------------------------

But even with all this, there was a lot of political anger in 1990, and maybe earlier. I mean, more than normal.

 

[GeographyDude]

. . . What the hell did the country owe steelworkers? . . .

I anticipate much happy discussion and disputation (!) (!) between a conservative viewpoint which talks about the value of community even at the expense of GDP, and a more libertarian all-out free enterprise perspective.

not to mention a variety of traditional liberal viewpoints,

not to mention my own ideas about an ownership society version of Universal Income (and my idea to use the capitals )

 

[Johnrankins]

I anticipate much happy discussion and disputation (!) (!) between a conservative viewpoint which talks about the value of community even at the expense of GDP, and a more libertarian all-out free enterprise perspective.

not to mention a variety of traditional liberal viewpoints,

not to mention my own ideas about an ownership society version of Universal Income (and my idea to use the capitals )

A pure Libertarian would take away their UR, SSI and every other social program out there which I wouldn't do. The thing is the country didn't owe the steelworkers (or anyone else) a guarantee they would have that job for life. There are at least 2 main worries 1) You would throw good money after bad and they would lose their jobs in a couple of years anyways 2) You set a precedent that an industry can make stupid mistakes and get bailed out, which encourages more stupid mistakes.

If it is bailed out it still has to hurt. It both teaches the people responsible that they can't do things like let their tech get behind and serves as a warning to others.

 

[History Learner]

Another article:

When Europe and Japan began rebuilding, they constructed mills using new and innovative technology. These “basic-oxygen” furnaces and continuous casting methods proved far more efficient and less expensive than steel produced by the open-hearth integrated mills in America. Rather than adopt the new process, executives at firms such as U.S. Steel, Bethlehem Steel and Republic Steel stubbornly stuck with their outmoded methods. Not until the 1960s did a few basic-oxygen plants open in the United States.

Another misstep was using their riches for financial games rather than investing in productivity and innovation. For example, Armco, whose Middletown, Ohio, mill features in the book Hillbilly Elegy, tried to turn itself into a conglomerate in the early 1980s. It bought an insurance company. Many of the majors failed to adequately fund their pension programs when times were good, which would prove catastrophic later.

Finally, Ken Iverson’s Nucor (which has an operation in Seattle) revolutionized steel production with its electric arc minimills. By the 1980s, more steel was being made from scrap than from the traditional base of mined iron ore. The minimills were ideally suited to this. Nucor so wanted to reinvent steelmaking that it preferred to train rookies than hire experienced steelworkers.

Today, among the once mighty Big Steel companies, only U.S. Steel still survives. Nucor has entered the establishment by supporting the Trump tariffs, something Iverson (who died in 2002) scorned. The imports that gobsmacked complacent American steelmakers starting in the 1970s didn’t come from sweatshops. Rather, they were produced by well-paid workers in Europe and Japan. It was executive blunders here that left the domestic industry vulnerable to collapse.

 

[History Learner]

Some degree of job loss in Steel was inevitable most likely given that this was the trend around the developed world:

Interestingly, the British collapse was also tied, at least in part, in a similar failure to invest in the new methods. However, had the modernization been carried out in the industry, the employment losses probably would've been much less than the 60% of OTL; perhaps close to the 30-45% seen in places like Japan or Germany. Indeed, that consumption from about 1990 onwards has been higher than production supports this notion:

 

[kholieken]

Conservative anger is NOT because of Steel Workers, if nothing else Labour still support Democrats for many decades, it only got slowly reduced over time until Trump finally win Rust Belt. The anger come from loss of Reagan, HW Bush tax betrayals, Bill Clinton and his friendship with Black, etc. Conservative is not same as former steel workers. In fact, conservative since Reagan time had been opposed to Big Labor, helping Youngstown would anger them more,it would be seen as Socialism.

 

[GeographyDude]

You'd have to put someone like Deming in charge; but since it's not WWII and we don't need to outproduce the Axis, nobody wants people like him spoiling their personal empires.

. . . When we bailed out the banks I would have split all of the banks we bailed out into 50 pieces, one for each state. They sink or swim from there.

. . If it is bailed out it still has to hurt. .

The 2008 near-meltdown and bailout of major financial institutions is a HUGELY important chapter in recent U.S. history. There may be a feeling among those in banking and insurance (such as AIG) that they may not get near so lucky the next time. [The U.S. House voted down the bailout the first time in Sept. '08.] The next time these executives may end up majorly, publicly embarrassed. May even end up in jail. I hope so.

I suspect we still don't have the transparency, reserves, solid accounting practices, which a lot of people think we have. So, what we can do 10+ years later is to push for these, and on some of these issues we might actually win.

We can also push to break up the big boy banks using Sherman Anti-Trust and similar. Now, on this one we face longer odds, but . . . if we give real, honest facts, have real conversations, not try to fool anyone, just talk with people, we as citizens will probably be able to move quicker at the time of the next crisis.

--------------------

And as Mad Bad Rabbit points out, this thing is not perfectly rational like an economics textbook. There's ego, there's trying to build fiefdoms and personal empires, and probably at least a dozen other things as well!

AIG = American International Group

 

[GeographyDude]

What Did We Learn from the Financial Crisis,
the Great Recession, and the Pathetic Recovery?

Alan Blinder (economist at Princeton), 2014

https://wws.princeton.edu/system/fi...Great_Recession_and_the_Pathetic_Recovery.pdf​

Lesson # 5: Fraud and near-fraud can rise to attain macroeconomic significance.

" . . . epidemic of deception in the home mortgage market, especially in the subprime part, helped fuel the housing bubble, as disgracefully bad mortgages pumped up the demand for, especially, low- and medium-priced houses. Wall Street then turned these awful mortgages into horrible securities (MBS, CDOs,...), many of which were then blessed with triple-A ratings by the rating agencies. Derivative bets on these dodgy securities, some of which were apparently designed to be shorted, added to the unsavory mix. . . "

Now, a lot of this is written for Alan's fellow economists, and I freely admit there are parts I don't understand.

But some of the parts I do understand, are damn good.

 

[GeographyDude]

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/may/tigers-tiger-cubs-economic-growth

I thought we could perhaps use a jolt of good news!

The East Asia Miracle continued solidly from around 1960 to the '90s. And if we add in China and India, and the "Tiger Cubs" of Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines, the miracle continues to this day.

And in terms of raising the quality of life for large numbers of human beings, quite literally one of the greatest things in the history of the world.

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Now, there's a lot of lessons to draw, but I think a big one is that these governments really tried not to let the financial market tail wag the overall economy dog.

 

[Barry Bull]

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/may/tigers-tiger-cubs-economic-growth

I thought we could perhaps use a jolt of good news!

The East Asia Miracle continued solidly from around 1960 to the '90s. And if we add in China and India, and the "Tiger Cubs" of Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines, the miracle continues to this day.

And in terms of raising the quality of life for large numbers of human beings, quite literally one of the greatest things in the history of the world.

------------------------

Now, there's a lot of lessons to draw, but I think a big one is that these governments really tried not to let the financial market tail wag the overall economy dog.

And all of these locations have changed to service industry as the leading sector for growth. I, as a HKer, have not seen any employee's from the manufacturing sector since late 80s.

 

[GeographyDude]

. . . I, as a HKer, have not seen any employee's from the manufacturing sector since late 80s.

And since the graph only shows overall GDP . . .

It’s possible that Hong Kong is having the same problem as the United States with middle-class jobs being slowly eroded, some of them becoming lower-income and some becoming higher-income.

In the U.S., 50% of adults currently have a middle-class income. So, I say, it remains an eminently winnable situation, but we are moving in the wrong direction.