AHC: Carlos II of Spain names Archduke Karl his successor?

So, can we count on Louis being smart and avoiding antagonizing the Maritime Powers? Instead he could direct his campaigns against Habsburgs' Italian possessions and Austria. But it wouldn't be the first time he tries to take more than he really can and once he becomes too threatening an alliance is bound to be cobbled up against him.

As for the Southern Netherlands I'm not so sure the Spanish or Vienna would allow it to be handed over to Bavaria and least of all Savoy. If the French move against the Netherlands the Dutch and British will definitely join the war. Louis could possibly get some territories along the border and Luxembourg at most (like he did in 1684) but he should direct his campaign to Italy if he wants to avoid British involvement while being able to easily defeat the the Austrians

Louis will avoid too much antagonization as he focuses his efforts on the Austrians.

The Spanish Netherlands would probably have to forcibly taken. Of course, a French invasion would spark concern in the Netherlands and in England. However, the Bavarians alone could not take the Southern Netherlands. Perhaps, Louis can convince the Dutch to hand it over to the Bavarians, the Dutch did indeed trust Max Emanuel (William, in fact, is responsible for Max's appointment to Governor of the Spanish Netherlands). Or Louis's invasion of the Spanish Netherlands could be accompanied by an explicit proclamation that the invasion was in the interests of the claims of Max Emanuel.
 
In the second partition treaty, Louis agreed that Spanish Netherlands would remain with Spain under Charles. While he was also double dealing in attempting to get Charles II to leave it all to Phillip, here he is not successful as in OTL. In TTL, Louis is either fighting for it all (queue up OTL War, except Phillip doesn't have a leg up at the beginning) or fighting for part of it. The decision to go for it all, OTL, could have gone either way, so this change in scenario could easily have swung the pendulum in the other direction. Let's go with the partition TL. Since Louis knows going for Netherlands brings a high likelihood of bringing Britain/Dutch into the war against him, and he, ostensibly, was ok with the SN being under Charles III, it's likely he leaves SN alone. IMO, OTL Louis knew that his action of accepting the Will leaving everything to Phillip was going to result in a war with Britain/Dutch, so he preemptively went for SN. Here, with a partition war against Austria, it is not guaranteed that B/D are going to oppose him, especially since they signed the second partition treaty. No matter which half of the spanish empire Louis is fighting for, he has already indicated SN under Charles III is acceptable. in 1700, just as no one could foresee Phillip being a heartbeat away from the French Throne, no one could foresee Charles being a heartbeat away from the Austrian Throne (although I think he was a little higher on the chain than Phillip was).

Long story short: don't assume France automatically goes for SN
 
Top