AHC: Can the USA enter WWI in 1915 or 1916, yet the Germans do not lose?

raharris1973

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I figure this is a hard challenge. Maybe impossible, maybe not, but surely interesting.
 
Germany makes a separate peace with Russia. The terms might be pretty harsh for Austria (partition) and the Balkan states (Russian annexation) but Germany would be in great shape versus the Western powers. Not having to fight Russia for a couple of years would more than balance out Americas contribution till 1918. Trade with Russia would really help with the blockade. No more choosing food or bombs. Build bombs and import food.
Germany should be able to last until 1920 at least. Good chance the allies are sick of war by then. Worse case a retreat to the Rhine. Doesn't work OTL because of the need for the Rhineland's iron and coal but with a secure East possible. the Russians might even help if the allies tried to cross the Rhine
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Sure ... if the US enter on the CP side :p

How ?

Maybe ... have the french and/or the brits sink some blockade breaker inbound for New Yorck or Baltimore with some really important stuff : chemicals, pharmaceuticals and the like, important to keep some industries running in the US (at that time the germans were still able to trade with the US, as well as all patents of german companies in the US were still valid).
Then ... the germans decide to reactivate the SS Vaterland (later IOTL SS Leviathan) and send it back to Germany with a load of cotton (NOT guncotten), some rubber and ... a lot of paying guests, also of the higher class, maybe a close relative of Henry Ford (IIRC he was more pro-german) and some other "names". Don't forget, the SS Vaterland was one of the fastest ships, that could at that time easily outrun every cruiser, sub and everythin bigger (26 knots).

Unfortunatly some french cruisers and maybe some T-boats (try to) chase her and instead a "Lusitanis"-incident there is a "Vaterland"-incident.

That might not (completly) turn the public opinion after Belgium, but ... now it's the Entente that has first killed american citizens. Also the american industrialists (at least the ones interested in german products and know-how) are asking much stronger to keep the sea-lines open for american trade (what - btw - the Brits did IOTL in some was : i.e. they deliberatly put NOT (US-)cotton on the contraband list until 1916 due to american protests after the decöaration of the blockade).

Now let the germans reflag their ships and/or purchase ships in the US by there under US-law set up shipping companies. Then its US-ships, that are chased by the french and brits. The brits might try to look the other way if such ships approach via Denmark-street, bit ... the french also ?

More now US-ships are chased and possibly sunk. On insitence of the industrialists the US starts to escort these ships ...
Then the documents, which proved VEERY close relations between the british and the belgian military are much better propagated in the US ...
Instead the "chinese" affairs with Japan and its "performance" there might be more highlightened, Japan, ally of Britain and France ... Japan wasn't "well" received in the US already then.
Then, maybe, there will be the first fight between Entente and US navy on escort ...
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I figure this is a hard challenge. Maybe impossible, maybe not, but surely interesting.
This might be possible if the U.S. endures so much casualties in trench warfare in WWI that a pro-peace candidate is elected to the U.S. Presidency in 1916 and makes a separate peace with Germany afterwards.
 
This might be possible if the U.S. endures so much casualties in trench warfare in WWI that a pro-peace candidate is elected to the U.S. Presidency in 1916 and makes a separate peace with Germany afterwards.

I dont think you can get that many troops to the front by then. It took a year for American combat troops to arrive in quantity. Assume the US enters after the Lusitania in 1915 and the first significant combat isnt until spring 1916. That's a pretty tight turnaround. And it would require significant ambivalence among the population at the time of declaration. I think you would need a different President, perhaps Teddy for this to occur. Teddy in Pres, gets us in, Wilson (or someone similar) beats him in 16.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I dont think you can get that many troops to the front by then. It took a year for American combat troops to arrive in quantity. Assume the US enters after the Lusitania in 1915 and the first significant combat isnt until spring 1916. That's a pretty tight turnaround. And it would require significant ambivalence among the population at the time of declaration. I think you would need a different President, perhaps Teddy for this to occur. Teddy in Pres, gets us in, Wilson (or someone similar) beats him in 16.
So, Taft declines to run in 1912 and TR wins the GOP nomination and the U.S. Presidency in that year?

Also, I am assuming that the U.S. President in this TL will try mobilizing an army and sending it over to France as soon as possible; true, it will take a while, but hopefully the U.S. engages in some bloody combat by the 1916 election so that this AHC can be fulfilled.
 

raharris1973

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This might be possible if the U.S. endures so much casualties in trench warfare in WWI that a pro-peace candidate is elected to the U.S. Presidency in 1916 and makes a separate peace with Germany afterwards.

So the USA and Russian Provisional Government demand peace now by 1917? And they make a separate peace leaving the British, French and Italians in a lurch?

I'm thinking U.S. withdrawal from the war could legitimize Russian withdrawal also.
 
Yes, though it would require some fairly clever diplomacy on the part of the Germans/Central Powers. Victory is out, but if they are able to achieve a white peace with Russia and remain on the defensive in order to hold out for a limited defeat on the Western front (lose colonies but nothing in Europe other than A-L). It is not impossible. Or at least, it is not strategically/militarily impossible. It is very unlikely that the OTL German leadership would be able to perceive the overall strategic balance, they certainly did not OTL, so it would require at the very least someone other than the dynamic duo of Hindenburg/Ludendorff in charge. Even then it is unlikely.

It is worth remembering that the ability of the Entente to do what it did in 1918 rested both on American resources and the extremely hard won lessons which made the British army so extraordinarily skilled in 1918. With American resources a 1917 major push is very likely, but if the Germans are no longer distracted in the East and of course in 1917 are in a better overall position in 1918 the outcome of such an offensive is likely to be a bloody overall failure. A clever German leadership would use the aftermath of this to sue for peace, offering A-L and the colonies. IMO this counts as a 'win' from an OTL perspective, though obviously not from TTL.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
So the USA and Russian Provisional Government demand peace now by 1917? And they make a separate peace leaving the British, French and Italians in a lurch?

Perhaps they all agree to try going for a comprehensive compromise peace?

I'm thinking U.S. withdrawal from the war could legitimize Russian withdrawal also.

Agreed.

However, the key challenge is having U.S. casualties be sufficiently high for a pro-peace candidate to be elected in 1916 (after all, U.S. casualties that come after November 1916 obviously won't affect that year's election). In turn, this might require not only a TR victory in 1912, but also a pro-war decision in this 1912 Imperial German War Council:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Imperial_War_Council_of_8_December_1912
 
If the USA joins the war that early how long does the war last? Could the USA lose enough men that it makes isolationist sentiment even larger come WW2?
 

raharris1973

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Of course, the type of scenario I'm trying to engineer has to thread the needle, "just so".

More likely than the war lasting long enough for the US to quit would be Germany surrendering/suing for peace before things get quite to that point.
 
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