AHC: Byzantine Survival

With a POD no earlier than 1450 have the Byzantine's survive the 15th century and possibly reconquer.
 
Impossible, post 1204 the Byzantine Empire is dead for all intents and purposes and you require ASB for them to recover. If the Turks are less successful someone else will finish them off, be that Bulgars or Serbs.
 
With a POD no earlier than 1450 have the Byzantine's survive the 15th century and possibly reconquer.
Not possible with a pod 1450.

Impossible, post 1204 the Byzantine Empire is dead for all intents and purposes and you require ASB for them to recover. If the Turks are less successful someone else will finish them off, be that Bulgars or Serbs.

I would have to disagree with you.

The Ottomans had a smaller base to go on in 1300 than the Romans had in 1265.

If we go by OTL meaning everything that happened to Romans happens like OTL, yes you are correct. But ATL does not work that way.

The OTL Ottomans who went from zero in 1300 to a world power in 2 centuries or the good/great leaders they had in those 200+ year span may even appear in ERE instead.

By your logic OTL Ottomans are ASB or your logic makes Ottomans the only nation that can do that in any timeline or multiverse that they can have successful 1204-1500s but the Romans cannot.
 
Not possible with a pod 1450.



I would have to disagree with you.

The Ottomans had a smaller base to go on in 1300 than the Romans had in 1265.

If we go by OTL meaning everything that happened to Romans happens like OTL, yes you are correct. But ATL does not work that way.

The OTL Ottomans who went from zero in 1300 to a world power in 2 centuries or the good/great leaders they had in those 200+ year span may even appear in ERE instead.

By your logic OTL Ottomans are ASB or your logic makes Ottomans the only nation that can do that in any timeline or multiverse that they can have successful 1204-1500s but the Romans cannot.
So maybe a more fatal defeat of the Ottomans by Tamerlane earlier ?
 
It could survive as a vassal of the Ottoman Empire. It has to accept its diminished status and avoid any scheming with the Christian kingdoms. Of course it's hard for a once-great empire to accept that, but it could.
 
The only way it would be possible is a crusade coming to their aid and that crusade winning an absolutely crushing victory, and then actually returning the land to the Byzantines rather than setting up their own crusader state. Not physically impossible but it would require literally everything going right. So very, very unlikely.
 
It could survive as a vassal of the Ottoman Empire. It has to accept its diminished status and avoid any scheming with the Christian kingdoms. Of course it's hard for a once-great empire to accept that, but it could.
I don't think that's in the cards for the empire in the long run honestly. Mehmed was obsessed with taking Constantinople from the moment he ascended to the throne, he would have jumped at any excuse to take it once he felt the Ottoman Beylik was ready. The Romans were surrounded on all sides by the Ottomans and their walls were becoming increasingly obsolete in the wake of cannon technology. Some Ottoman Sultan sooner or later, even if Mehmed somehow fails, is going to finish the empire off.
 
I don't think that's in the cards for the empire in the long run honestly. Mehmed was obsessed with taking Constantinople from the moment he ascended to the throne, he would have jumped at any excuse to take it once he felt the Ottoman Beylik was ready. The Romans were surrounded on all sides by the Ottomans and their walls were becoming increasingly obsolete in the wake of cannon technology. Some Ottoman Sultan sooner or later, even if Mehmed somehow fails, is going to finish the empire off.

This however, increases the chances of the Ottomans losing a war to a neighbor in the Islamic world. The Aq Qoyunlyu to the east are a possible foe as well as the Burji Mamluks to the south. Not to mention eventual development in the east that could always produce efficient foes to bring decimation to the Ottoman Asian holdings.
 
Impossible, post 1204 the Byzantine Empire is dead for all intents and purposes and you require ASB for them to recover. If the Turks are less successful someone else will finish them off, be that Bulgars or Serbs.

I don't think that's necessarily true. The Empire of Nicaea was doing well up to 1261. Imo the key is to prevent Nicaea over-stretching itself by fighting in the west. The recapture of Constantinople was a turning point for the worse, ironically.

Let's suppose Nicaea continues to exist in Anatolia and doesn't lose any land to the Turks. Best way to do that may be to ensure the focus remains on Anatolia. Let's say Michael VIII never happens.

The fate of Constantinople will need to be resolved. Let's say Epirus or Bulgaria captures it. This ensures western counter attacks, if they happen, will not affect Nicaea. Long story short, Byzantine successor states continue to exist in the region, possibly indefinitely. With Nicaea surviving unchanged, the Ottomans never happen.
 
This however, increases the chances of the Ottomans losing a war to a neighbor in the Islamic world. The Aq Qoyunlyu to the east are a possible foe as well as the Burji Mamluks to the south. Not to mention eventual development in the east that could always produce efficient foes to bring decimation to the Ottoman Asian holdings.
But the problem with that is that it doesn't guarantee Roman safety. They can hide behind their walls for a few decades more, but as cannons become cheaper and more efficent they're going to become obsolete. There's not really much they can do to defend themselves unless either some unlikely mega-Crusade happens that completely kicks the Ottomans out of Europe and all of this is if (this is a big if) Mehmed tries to take Constantinople and fails. The Romans at this point are surrounded by the Ottomans on all sides, they're located within the heartland of the Ottoman Beylik. They don't have much diplomatic or military flexibility anymore by 1450.

Furthermore I don't see how not taking Constantinople would weaken the Ottomans enough to have them become victim to these neighbours. Constantinople in 1453 was a depopulated ruin, if anything it was a net loss for the Ottomans in the short term because Mehmed had to spend alot of money rebuilding and repopulating it.
 
By your logic OTL Ottomans are ASB or your logic makes Ottomans the only nation that can do that in any timeline or multiverse that they can have successful 1204-1500s but the Romans cannot.

I said Turks not Ottomans

The fate of Constantinople will need to be resolved. Let's say Epirus or Bulgaria captures it. This ensures western counter attacks, if they happen, will not affect Nicaea. Long story short, Byzantine successor states continue to exist in the region, possibly indefinitely. With Nicaea surviving unchanged, the Ottomans never happen.

Personally that doesn't leave the Byzantines alive, that leaves successor states, sure Nicaea, Epirus, Morea and Trebizond were still waddling along, but without Constantinople any claim to Empire was merely that just a claim. This is why the Nicaeans were so obsessed with getting it back, because of the prestige it had.
 
Personally that doesn't leave the Byzantines alive, that leaves successor states, sure Nicaea, Epirus, Morea and Trebizond were still waddling along, but without Constantinople any claim to Empire was merely that just a claim. This is why the Nicaeans were so obsessed with getting it back, because of the prestige it had.
Wouldn't Epirus count as a restored Empire? They did try to take the city before Nicaea historically and got quite close before the Bulgarians intervened, so it's not that implausible for them to take Constantinople.
 
Wouldn't Epirus count as a restored Empire? They did try to take the city before Nicaea historically and got quite close before the Bulgarians intervened, so it's not that implausible for them to take Constantinople.

In that case possibly. I do see your point, of if the Nicaeans hold off the Turks then things will go better.
 
Impossible, post 1204 the Byzantine Empire is dead for all intents and purposes and you require ASB for them to recover. If the Turks are less successful someone else will finish them off, be that Bulgars or Serbs.

I think the civil wars of the mid-XIV century were the true point of no return. Up through the reign of Andronikos III the empire still had a chance. After the fallout of the civil wars, it could only survive as a vassal of some stronger power.
 
I think the civil wars of the mid-XIV century were the true point of no return. Up through the reign of Andronikos III the empire still had a chance. After the fallout of the civil wars, it could only survive as a vassal of some stronger power.

I'm unsure about this. Places like Nicaea, Prusa, Smyrna, Philadelphia and others in western Anatolia were the very heartland of the Byzantine civilisation. By the time of Andronikos III, these had either already fallen or were besieged and about to surrender. The Ottomans were probably unstoppable, as the outcome of the battle of Bapheus showed.

Losing these areas is probably not an option for an empire with its capital at Constantinople. Even modern Turkey controls land on both sides of the Bospirus. And Anatolia is far larger in area and population than the Balkans is, meaning Byzantium, based on the European side, is weaker and less able to project its power across the water.

I think Byzantium needs to prevent the loss of the old Empire of Nicaea heartlands in western Asia Minor if it is to survive in the long run.
 
Not possible with a pod 1450.



I would have to disagree with you.

The Ottomans had a smaller base to go on in 1300 than the Romans had in 1265.

If we go by OTL meaning everything that happened to Romans happens like OTL, yes you are correct. But ATL does not work that way.

The OTL Ottomans who went from zero in 1300 to a world power in 2 centuries or the good/great leaders they had in those 200+ year span may even appear in ERE instead.

By your logic OTL Ottomans are ASB or your logic makes Ottomans the only nation that can do that in any timeline or multiverse that they can have successful 1204-1500s but the Romans cannot.

Yes, at that time the Ottomans had been unique and this had nothing to do with the ASBs.

The main strength of the early Ottomans was not in the size of their state or even in the unusually high military skills of their successive leaders but in their military system. Unlike all other nations/states in the region, they had a very high quality regular infantry, Janissary. This made them rather unique (AFAIK, no ASBs had been openly involved in creation of the Janissary corps :)) and this assured, short of some terrible offset, their ability to maintain conquests all the way to the XVII century.

European ATL victories 1st (1389) or 2nd (1448) battle of Kosovo, battle of Nicopolis (1396) or battle of Varna (1444) would not have much more than a delaying effect: the European armies in all these conflicts simply did not have capacity for pursuing the issue all the way to a complete destruction of the Ottomans.

OTOH, if any of the Byzantine neighbors were able to conquer what's left of the Empire, they'd do it.

So the only realistic POD is their complete destruction at Ankara (1402) and collapse of their state in the following civil war (in OTL ended by 1413) but the time would be prior to 1450. Or, as an option, it is not too difficult to imagine scenario with even earlier POD under which the Ottomans are not becoming a major power at all. For example, Sultanate of Rum is not disintegrating but instead maintains its existence as a relatively weak state with "traditional" military system.
 
So the only realistic POD is their complete destruction at Ankara (1402) and collapse of their state in the following civil war

Even this doesn't make any difference imo. After 1354 the Byzantines didn't have any significant territory left. By that point, whatever happens to the Ottomans doesn't even matter much. The Byzantines had become an irrelevance. The only players were the Turks, the Serbs, the Bulgarians and the western Europeans.
 
Even this doesn't make any difference imo. After 1354 the Byzantines didn't have any significant territory left. By that point, whatever happens to the Ottomans doesn't even matter much. The Byzantines had become an irrelevance. The only players were the Turks, the Serbs, the Bulgarians and the western Europeans.

In general, I agree, but they still can survive as a not too big Balkan state strategically located to benefit from the trade between Med and Black Seas: an earlier demise of the Ottomans means that Venice and/or Genoa are still in play.

The good thing for the Byzantines is that the Hungarians, Serbs and Bulgarians keep fighting each other and that at least Serbia and Bulgaria are regularly disintegrating into the sets of small states.
 
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