AHC: Bush Sr. pulls off a Cleveland

Challenge: Have George Bush Sr. become the Republican nominee in 1996, and then have George Bush Sr. win the 1996 presidential election.

Best option? Somalia gets mishandled even worse than in OTL, and in 1994, Bush gives a speech in which he admits he blew it in 1990 with the budget deal, and blasts Clinton over Somalia and the mishandling of foreign policy.

Then, in 1995, during the budget battle, the Monica Lewinsky scandal erupts.
 
Best option? Somalia gets mishandled even worse than in OTL, and in 1994, Bush gives a speech in which he admits he blew it in 1990 with the budget deal, and blasts Clinton over Somalia and the mishandling of foreign policy.

Then, in 1995, during the budget battle, the Monica Lewinsky scandal erupts.

Do that and then have Ross Perot either die, decline to run or endorse Bush in the 1996 election.
 
Bush Sr's approval ratings shot up after he lost the election. Have him start foreshadowing/implying another run shortly after he's already left office - not too soon, because it'll make him look like he's in it for revenge. If he sets the groundwork early, but doesn't go too public, it can happen. Have him either apologize for the budget compromise in 1990, or try to claim his actions were those that saved the economy, not Clinton. Point out Clinton's domestic failures, and maybe take some cues from his son's (in OTL) future campaigns.

He doesn't have a massive chance, but I'd say George H. W. Bush has a stronger chance of winning a non-consecutive term than any recent one-term president, save Ford's half-term.
 
I was going to say that George HW Bush was too old to win the nomination in 1996.tThen I looked it up. hHe was a year younger than bBob Dole.
 
In early 1995, the general consensus was that Clinton's Presidency was all but over, to the point where he actually had to insist on his own relevance. Clinton managed to regain his popularity largely because of the economy, but also because of the way in which he looked better next to Speaker Gingrich. So let us say that Gingrich loses in 1990 ad nearly happened, and a much more reasonable individual becomes Speaker. There is no government shutdown, no grand confrontations, and Clinton never loses the appearance of incompetence he had in 1993 and 1994. Though the economy is improving Clinton is not the shoe in he was in the actual 1996 election. Combine that with some sort of international crisis early enough for Bush to enter and somehow remove Dole from the equation, Bush might stand a slight chance of making a comeback.

Or you could have the Clinton administration go down in flames after losimg a few key votes in 1993.
 
Didn't Perot actually "steal" more votes from Clinton than Dole in 1996?

Yep, Perot voters second choice was Clinton by 54% to 38% according to the polls. Wonder if the rest of them would have turned out at all.

In early 1995, the general consensus was that Clinton's Presidency was all but over, to the point where he actually had to insist on his own relevance. Clinton managed to regain his popularity largely because of the economy, but also because of the way in which he looked better next to Speaker Gingrich. So let us say that Gingrich loses in 1990 ad nearly happened, and a much more reasonable individual becomes Speaker. There is no government shutdown, no grand confrontations, and Clinton never loses the appearance of incompetence he had in 1993 and 1994. Though the economy is improving Clinton is not the shoe in he was in the actual 1996 election. Combine that with some sort of international crisis early enough for Bush to enter and somehow remove Dole from the equation, Bush might stand a slight chance of making a comeback.

Or you could have the Clinton administration go down in flames after losimg a few key votes in 1993.

Without Gingrich, there likely isn't a Republican Revolution to begin with, though.
 
Yep, Perot voters second choice was Clinton by 54% to 38% according to the polls. Wonder if the rest of them would have turned out at all.



Without Gingrich, there likely isn't a Republican Revolution to begin with, though.

Well, arguably there were structural reasons for the Republican takeover in 1994 that went beyond Gingrich. But even without that takeover, Clinton still is going to have a harder time regaining his popularity. You could make the case that the economy trumps everything, but Clinton's fights with Gingrich did help him shake off the appearance of incompetence he had had up to that point. If you avoid those fights, Clinton will have a worse reputation in 1995 and 1996. Indeed preserving the Democratic hold on the House might actually be worse for Clinton politically as he will still look like a President who cannot control Congress despite his party holding a majority. And he would not be ablecto compare himself to the Republicans in the House. Additionally, Republican anger against Clinton would have been denied expression in 1994 so that anger might find more expression in 1996.
Now my sense is that the economy is Clinton's trump card and that despite all of this he would still have waltzed to victory, having him lose is just that difficult.
 
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How about a sex scandal in October 1996? gGHW Bush has been in good health. aAfter his probable reelection in 2000. I think his likely Vice President Jack Kemp uses 9-11 and marriage to win in 2004. In the time of economic collapse he loses in 2008. Is there in an Iraq War?
 
How about a sex scandal in October 1996? gGHW Bush has been in good health. aAfter his probable reelection in 2000. I think his likely Vice President Jack Kemp uses 9-11 and marriage to win in 2004. In the time of economic collapse he loses in 2008. Is there in an Iraq War?
HW Bush couldn't run again in 2000 and 9/11, if a similar event occurs at all, will not be as we know it.
 
Without Gingrich, there likely isn't a Republican Revolution to begin with, though.

Go back further. Have John Tower be successfully chosen as Bush' SecDef. Come 1994, it'd be Dick Cheney in charge of the Republican Revolution...
 
GHW Bush couldn't run again in 2000

Sorry I spaced the 22nd Amendment. I think Vice President Jack Kemp wins the 2000 election. I think due to 9/11 he is reelected in 2004. In 2008, the Republican candidate who could very well be George W. Bush is defeated.
Does Kemp start a war in Iraq? He definitely goes to war in Afghanistan.
 
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