With a realistic POD, have William Jennings Bryan win the 1908 Presidential election.

Teddy goes back on his 1904 pledge not to run again in 1908, announcing late into his second term that, in the spirit of Populism, the People should judge weather or not the 2 term custom is something, like the indirect election of Senators, that should be kept or not. The electorate decides it ought to be, and reguardless of Teddy's personal popularity and winning the nomination rank and file Republicans are warry on voting him in on a matter of principal
 
An old soc.history.what-if post of mine, very slightly modified:

***

In January 1899, William Howard Taft received word (from his brother Henry Taft) that he was being considered for the presidency of Yale. He wrote a letter to Henry, declining the job, giving as one of his reasons his religion. Yale's strongest support was from "among those who believe in the creed of the orthodox evangelical churches," and with him as president, Yale might be deprived of that aid, because he did not share that creed:

"I am a Unitarian. I believe in God. I do not believe in the Divinity of Christ, and there are many other of the postulates of the orthodox creed to which I cannot subscribe. I am not, however, a scoffer at religion but on the contrary recognize, in the fullest manner, the elevating influence that it has had and always will have in the history of mankind." (Emphasis added)

Taft's biographer Henry Pringle thinks that "it was well that political enemies did not have access to his private files" because the phrase "I do not believe in the Divinity of Christ" if made public "would have been more than enough to send Bryan to the White House in 1908." The Life and Times of William Howard Taft, vol. 1 , p. 45. https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.164430/page/n59

Would it, though? Suppose in the heat of the campaign the letter had somehow been made public--let's say some shocked janitor in Henry Taft's office comes across the letter and decides he must make it public to save America from the curse of an un-Christian president. Remember that Taft made no secret of the fact that he was a Unitarian, and of course many people denounced him for that and said that they would not vote for him precisely because as a Unitarian he did not believe in the divinity of Christ. But there were also no doubt people who had only a fuzzy idea of what Unitarianism was--who thought it was just another Protestant denomination--but would have been shocked at the phrase "I do not believe in the Divinity of Christ" even if in fact it was implicit in his Unitarianism. So I do not doubt that Taft would have lost some votes (though there would also be some sympathy for him for the way in which a private letter of his was made public). But I doubt that it would have been enough to let Bryan win...
 
Teddy goes back on his 1904 pledge not to run again in 1908, announcing late into his second term that, in the spirit of Populism, the People should judge weather or not the 2 term custom is something, like the indirect election of Senators, that should be kept or not. The electorate decides it ought to be, and reguardless of Teddy's personal popularity and winning the nomination rank and file Republicans are warry on voting him in on a matter of principal

Rank and file Republicans would vote for the Devil--let alone a TR who was merely seeking a "second elective term"-- to keep Bryan out of the White House. In fact, everyone knew that TR could defeat Bryan; but some people were unsure that anyone else could, which was why even conservative Republicans who had serous policy differences with TR urged him to run again.
 
An old soc.history.what-if post of mine, very slightly modified:

***

In January 1899, William Howard Taft received word (from his brother Henry Taft) that he was being considered for the presidency of Yale. He wrote a letter to Henry, declining the job, giving as one of his reasons his religion. Yale's strongest support was from "among those who believe in the creed of the orthodox evangelical churches," and with him as president, Yale might be deprived of that aid, because he did not share that creed:

"I am a Unitarian. I believe in God. I do not believe in the Divinity of Christ, and there are many other of the postulates of the orthodox creed to which I cannot subscribe. I am not, however, a scoffer at religion but on the contrary recognize, in the fullest manner, the elevating influence that it has had and always will have in the history of mankind." (Emphasis added)

Taft's biographer Henry Pringle thinks that "it was well that political enemies did not have access to his private files" because the phrase "I do not believe in the Divinity of Christ" if made public "would have been more than enough to send Bryan to the White House in 1908." The Life and Times of William Howard Taft, vol. 1 , p. 45. https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.164430/page/n59

Would it, though? Suppose in the heat of the campaign the letter had somehow been made public--let's say some shocked janitor in Henry Taft's office comes across the letter and decides he must make it public to save America from the curse of an un-Christian president. Remember that Taft made no secret of the fact that he was a Unitarian, and of course many people denounced him for that and said that they would not vote for him precisely because as a Unitarian he did not believe in the divinity of Christ. But there were also no doubt people who had only a fuzzy idea of what Unitarianism was--who thought it was just another Protestant denomination--but would have been shocked at the phrase "I do not believe in the Divinity of Christ" even if in fact it was implicit in his Unitarianism. So I do not doubt that Taft would have lost some votes (though there would also be some sympathy for him for the way in which a private letter of his was made public). But I doubt that it would have been enough to let Bryan win...

It would've caused a scandal, but Taft could still (more narrowly) defeat Bryan by repudiating his earlier statement and bringing in TR to defend his religiosity. After all, Taft beat Bryan by a staggering 8 points in the popular vote. In fact 1908 was Bryan's worst performance in any of his three presidential defeats. (Although he did slighter better in the EC than in 1900).

Perhaps if the less popular Elihu Root had run instead of Taft, Bryan would've stood a better chance. But even then victory would be difficult.
 
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