AHC: Brokered Convention for GOP in 2012

Your challenge, with a PoD after 2010, is to have a brokered convention for the Republicans in 2012. Preferably without deaths, comas, etc. By a brokered convention, I mean it makes more than 1 ballot for the GOP to select a nominee at their convention. Go ahead!
 
Having Romney stay out for some reason (scandal, health, etc...) could do the trick. Pawlenty and Huntsman would split the establishment, and the rest of the OTL circus of candidates would rise and fall as it did OTL. My guess is Pawlenty, Huntsman, Santorum, Gingrich, maybe Perry (Unless the oops gaffe still happens TTL) go to the convention and it is brokered with one of those candidates emerging as the victor. Unless Huntsman is the nominee, Obama wins by a bigger margin than OTL, especially if one of the later three end up with the nomination.
 
I heard that Gingrich's plan was for a brokered convention after he lost Florida. Maybe if Romney made a major mistake after Super Tuesday, such as moving to the center but doing so too early, he might be unable to seal the deal.

Then there's Santorum. I did some calculations once about if Santorum had won Michigan, and this is a big momentum booster for him, but not enough to outright eliminate Romney's lead. The race after Super Tuesday is a back and forth of wins between Romney and Santorum, and while Romney has a slight lead it's not nearly enough to get a majority and Santorum can't knock Romney out. After the final primaries both candidates are hundreds of delegates from a majority, leading to utter chaos. Maybe Paul Ryan could be the white-knight, just like in 2016:D:p
 
I kinda like Romney, but frankly he was a terribly weak candidate, at least in the primary. The problem was his opponents were far weaker. The Bachmann/Perry/Cain/Gingrich/Santorum surges (during all of which Romney's support was fairly steady) all showed that their was a seemingly strong demand for an "Anybody But Romney" candidate, but nobody was strong enough to mount a serious challenge.

So I guess the easiest way to get a brokered convention is to have a stronger challenger enter the race. Huckabee or Palin might be able to do the trick. Both would probably be able to get more support than Santorum/Gingrich etc. were able to manage, partially thanks to their presence in 2008 and their greater popularity among conservatives. Plus, since both are still fairly controversial and since Romney's seemed to have a significant amount of loyal support, the race between Romney and Palin or Huckabee would likely be a close one. Close enough to possibly lead to a brokered convention, at least.

As to what the result of that convention would be, my guess is Romney would still manage to come out on top after the first ballot.
 
especially since Huckabee's an economic populist, and Romney's anything but.

Huckabee running is a possibility. The question is though, might Huckabee do well enough to secure a majority, especially since he's a stronger anti-Romney. Huckabee vs Romney could work. Santroum doing better, winning Michigan and keeping the race going might work too. Could Paul Ryan, or even John Kasich, get nominated at a brokered convention?
 
Huckabee running is a possibility. The question is though, might Huckabee do well enough to secure a majority, especially since he's a stronger anti-Romney. Huckabee vs Romney could work. Santroum doing better, winning Michigan and keeping the race going might work too. Could Paul Ryan, or even John Kasich, get nominated at a brokered convention?

I tend to think that Romney had a strong enough base of support (for instance, from what I recall his support hardly budged during the various Bachmann/Perry/Cain/Gingrich/Santorum surges) to prevent it from being an easy victory for a stronger anti-Romney candidate.

I think 2012 is too early for Paul or Kasich, even in terms of winning a brokered convention. If it is a brokered convention and somebody gets drafted (which I think is unlikely to begin with - I think Romney would still manage to win even in a contested convention), I could see the party drafting (or at least trying to draft) Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, or even Jeb Bush, who could have an advantage in terms of the fact that the convention would be in Florida.
 
I tend to think that Romney had a strong enough base of support (for instance, from what I recall his support hardly budged during the various Bachmann/Perry/Cain/Gingrich/Santorum surges) to prevent it from being an easy victory for a stronger anti-Romney candidate.

I think 2012 is too early for Paul or Kasich, even in terms of winning a brokered convention. If it is a brokered convention and somebody gets drafted (which I think is unlikely to begin with - I think Romney would still manage to win even in a contested convention), I could see the party drafting (or at least trying to draft) Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, or even Jeb Bush, who could have an advantage in terms of the fact that the convention would be in Florida.

OK. Huckabee does have a limited appeal, so he could cause a brokered convention.

Romney might win a brokered convention. Coming to think of it drafting someone is unlikely because most of the discussion now about drafting someone is the establishment trying to find a savior, when TTL it will be establishment(Romney) vs anti-establishment/Tea Party(Huckabee).
 
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