AHC: Britain on the brink in 1944

Ryan

Donor
the trailer for the upcoming dad's army movie states that in 1944 Britain was on the brink of defeat. of course anyone who knows about ww2 can tell you that that is a load of hogwash and that if anything, it was the Germans who were on the brink.

so your challenge is to make the trailer true and create a situation where Britain appears to be on the brink of defeat in 1944.
 
OK let's see Hitler defeats the Soviet Union in 1941 or 1942. Hitler does not declare war on the US which never intervenes in Europe but does continue lend lease keeping the #UK fighting. By 1943 German armies wit the aid of the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem finish the conquest of the Middle aEast and threaten the borders of India frm their positions in Persia. Meanwhile Germany has invested in U Boats and modern German submrines are sinking convoys from the US in record numbers.

Meanwhile the US has concentrated on defeating Japan.

Following the loss of the Middle East Churchill's Government falls due to a No Confidence Motion on 1 November 1943. He is replaced by a government led by Lord Halifax.
 
Nice TL, one can also add hordes of He-177s (and other bomber types in the thousands) bombing british cities and causing great damage and loss of life - with no USSR front nearly all the german bomber force could concentrate on the UK. You would have reciprocal thousand bomber raids in this TL, and with no US daylight attacks and the damage they caused, the german are that much stronger (although probably laxer as far as production goes as they "won" against the USSR).
 
Yes, Britain was economically defeated by 1944.
Britain was exhausted after WW 1 and I doubt if she ever fully recovered. Consider the slow pace of re-armament during the late 1930s.
Only Lend-Lease kept Britain in the battle throughout WW2. It was only America's willingness to extend more and more loans that kept British soldiers armed and fed.
Mind you, Americans were not as generous as they seemed on the surface because the Bretton-Woods Agreements allowed American firms access to dozens of new markets in old British colonies. Eventually, American corporations out-competed British corporations and gained control of most of the British Commonwealth.
 
I have read a poignant phrase somewhere recently basically along the lines of when Britain had to ask and accept the US help (and conditions) to fight against Germany and bankrupting itself in the process, it gave up ever remaining a great power after the war, which is exactly what happened.

The only way they could have avoided this is having the UK and France managing to defeat Hitler in 1940. They DID had the capability, but history took another course (unfortunately).
 
OK let's see Hitler defeats the Soviet Union in 1941 or 1942. Hitler does not declare war on the US which never intervenes in Europe but does continue lend lease keeping the #UK fighting. By 1943 German armies wit the aid of the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem finish the conquest of the Middle aEast and threaten the borders of India frm their positions in Persia. Meanwhile Germany has invested in U Boats and modern German submrines are sinking convoys from the US in record numbers.
Hm, can't see it myself, If the US is at war with Japan it's going to end up at war with Germany sooner or later, so you really want to keep the US out altogether.
 
Sounds as bad as the book...and film...Resistance which following a disastrous Overlord, Germany invades the UK.

Changing it to 1944....what were the script writers on???
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Sounds as bad as the book...and film...Resistance which following a disastrous Overlord, Germany invades the UK.

Changing it to 1944....what were the script writers on???

Since it is a comedy, they seem to be on the right track.
 
the trailer for the upcoming dad's army movie states that in 1944 Britain was on the brink of defeat. of course anyone who knows about ww2 can tell you that that is a load of hogwash and that if anything, it was the Germans who were on the brink.

so your challenge is to make the trailer true and create a situation where Britain appears to be on the brink of defeat in 1944.

The Allied cryptanalysts re-break Enigma a few weeks earlier in 1940. (At this time it was a joint British/French/exiled-Polish effort.) The break is in time to alert the Allies to the intended German invasion of Norway, which the Allies crush.

This spectacular success leads to much semi-private bragging among Allied spooks, in particuiar by Colonel Bertrand, a key figure in the French-Polish end of things, who is entitled to much credit but takes even more.

Some of Polish analysts are highly disgruntled. One of them unburdens himself to a representative of the the Daily Zgoda, the Polish-language newspaper in Chicago. The Zgoda prints a story revealing the wonderful success of the Polish analysts, which they fatuously think will not be read by anyone except Poles. But it is also read by a German-American butcher who grew up in Posen/Poznan (a largely Polish area of Imperial Germany that went to Poland in 1918), and reads the Zgoda to check up on Polish-American competitors' ads.

So the ULTRA secret is blown at the start. The defeat in Norway, and the revelation that German signals security is non-existent, forces a delay in FALL GELB, all the way to late July.

The war appears to be going much better for the Allies; Germany seems to be contained. FDR decides that he isn't needed to steer the country through the war crisis, and doesn't run for a third term. As in OTL, he discloses this decision at the Democratic National Convention, but does not arrange for "the voice from the sewer" to start a "draft".

The convention is thrown up for grabs. Neither of the two overt candidates, VP "Cactus Jack" Garner and ex-Postmaster Jim Farley, has much real support. Several other figures declare interest or are touted by one faction or another. One of these has prepared for the opportunity: Senator Burton K. Wheeler of Montana, who has already formed a campaign committee. Wheeler is a passionate New Dealer - he jumps to an early lead, and then makes a deal with Farley to be his running mate (OTL he actually suggested this before the convention). Wheeler is nominated.

The Republicans have already nominated businessman Wendell Willkie. Wheeler is some ways a very problematic candidate, and he's not Roosevelt. But also he's not breaking the third-term tradition, and Willkie is a first-time candidate who in the opinion of some OTL observers self-destructed.

So Wheeler is elected in November. And Wheeler is a fanatic isolationist.

Meanwhile, the Germans regroup: revamp their cipher systems and revise their plans for FALL GELB. They attack on 27 July. Despite the delays, the French army is still sclerotic, hidebound, mis-equipped, and mis-organized; France collapses in a month, and becomes a quasi-neutral German satellite. But Mussolini was unnerved by the Norway defeat, and stays out of the war.

The battle of France is followed by the blitz of Britain; there is no plan by Germany to invade, as it is too late in the year, but there is an intense bombing campaign. Hitler attempts to persuade Franco to join the Axis, but fails. However, Soviet agents get a transcript of the meeting.

They also reveal that Hitler is already thinking about attacking the USSR. Stalin has a cunning plan to divert and deter this. He offers Hitler all the oil and grain he needs to meet Franco's demands (and Mussolini's). He also has Soviet intelligence feed the Abwehr a true order of battle for the Red Army - which is much larger than the Abwehr's estimates.

Hitler decides he has to break Britain before taking on the Soviets, and for this he needs Spain and Italy more than he needs French neutrality. In February 1941, Italy and Spain declare war on Britain. Axis forces occupy French North Africa, neutralize Gibraltar, and invade Egypt. German and Italian naval forces based in Spain raid all across the Atlantic, along with U-boats. Britain is semi-blockaded.

In return for the goodies, Hitler agrees to Stalin's renewed conquest of Finland, which is carried out in April and May 1941.

Meanwhile - President Wheeler disclaims any U.S. interest in upholding colonial rule in Southeast Asia. Japan decides this is a green light, and seizes the British, French, and Dutch colonies, and also occupies the South Pacific. Australia and New Zealand are helpless to resist Japanese raids, and are forced to withdraw from the war. (The weak RN force sent to oppose the Japanese is annihilated.) Many Americans express outrage over Japanese actions such as the bombing of Sydney and the seizure of Fiji, but Wheeler stands firm - the U.S. has no business interfering 7,000 miles away.

The Japanese fleet also scours the Indian Ocean, cutting off India and the Middle East. With Japanese assistance, Indian nationalists led by Subhas Bose seize control from British colonial authorities; Axis forces sweep the unsupplied British out of the Middle East.

All this is complete by August 1941. Britain nonetheless hangs on. The sea route to Canada is still open - barely, and the Allies hold French West Africa. There is no fear of invasion. But there is no Lend-Lease, and half the Empire has been lost.

But Hitler decides that Britain is reduced to impotence, and with the British blockade of Europe broken, Germany doesn't need Soviet gifts. Also, Stalin is tightening the spigot, and demanding payment - which Hitler can't afford.

So in August, the Axis invades the USSR. As in OTL, Stalin refuses to heed warnings, and the Axis attack is a great success. German planning was somewhat better informed than OTL; despite Hitler's manic optimism, the General Staff has allowed for greater Soviet reserves and the probability that the campaign will last through the winter. Also, the successful second Soviet campaign against Finland dispells part of the aura of incompetence created by the Winter War, so the Germans aren't as cocky going in. The 1941 campaign ends with the fall rains in late October; the Axis has taken Novgorod, Smolensk, Dnepropetrovsk, and the Crimea, and inflicted 4M losses.

When the Soviets counterattack in November, the Axis forces have been resting for a month after the offensive stopped. They take some hard knocks, but generally beat off the Soviets. Fighting pauses with the 1942 spring thaw.

Britain hangs grimly on. The Axis invasion of the USSR brought all the reluctant leftists over to the war side, but the endless bombing, the food rationing, and the tide of defeats has been demoralizing. Canada and South Africa are still supporting Britain, but both are balking at the seemingly limitless needs of the mother country.

In the rest of 1942: the Axis resumes the offensive. Axis forces take Leningrad and liberate Finland (at least that's how the Finns see it); British and Soviet force hold out in the Arctic from Norway to Murmansk. Axis forces drive on Moscow, but are stopped just short in a ferocious battle. Axis forces also sweep across Ukraine to the lower Volga and take over the isolated Caucasus from north and south.

Also in 1942: Spanish-German forces march on French West Africa, are repulsed. Italian-German forces retake Abyssinia and Somalia.

In 1943: Another round of Soviet winter counterattacks has limited success at heavy cost. The Axis summer offensive takes Moscow, but logistics and heavy casualties limit exploitation.

Food shortages, severe casualties, repeated defeats, and the strain of continual overtime war work demoralizes the Soviet people. Stalin's brutal repression of discontent causes further alienation. In October 1943, mutinies and local rebellions break out; rebels kill Stalin. A Vichy-style government surrenders in January 1944; Soviet Asia and the area east of Gorky remain unoccupied.

In Africa: Spanish-German forces remain stalled north of Senegal; their logistics make OTL Libya-Egypt look easy. But in east Africa, German-Italian forces take Kenya and Tanganyika. South African forces take heavy casualties. There is a quasi-revolution in South Africa by pro-Axis Afrikaners. South Africa leaves the war, and takes over Rhodesia, Bechuanaland, etc.

Since 1940: shipyards around Axis-occupied Europe have built several thousand Siebel ferries and similar shallow-draft motorized barges; an invasion of Britain is now physically possible. The Royal Navy has been severely ground down, while Axis shipyards have built many large "torpedo boats", destroyers, escorts, and light cruisers.The Axis battlefleet now includes 4 German, 7 Italian, and 3 salvaged French battleships.

With the end of the war in the East, Germany concentrates the whole Luftwaffe on the Channel in spring 1944, threatening to overwhelm the RAF. The ferries and barges are gathering in the Netherlands and Belgium.

It's 1944, and Britain is on the verge of defeat.
 
Hm, can't see it myself, If the US is at war with Japan it's going to end up at war with Germany sooner or later, so you really want to keep the US out altogether.

You would have to have an isolatimnist candidate win the 1940 Presidential election. Maybe someone like Wendell Wilkie, Maybe a Wilkie Presidency would still have helpd Britain figt (keeping them in the war) but without intervening. That said, sooner or late the US will, as you say eventually end up at war with Germany.

That makes the key issue the question of war with Japan. After Pearl Harbour does the US under President Wilkie conentrate on defeating japan first while th war in Europe takes second priririty. If the Germans have ovrrrun the Middle East and defeated Russia US troops re deployed to the UK only to help defefend against a Germman invasion. No offensive moves in the uropean theatre until after the defeat of Japan.
 
There is a big issue there, Japan will only invade if the west embargoes fuel and other imports, an embargo that OTL was led by the US. In addition, if they go for the Pacific colonies, they'll also go after the Philippines, which brings the US in. In addition, Japanese attacks won't see Australia or NZ backing down, not by a long shot.

As for the German attacks into the USSR, remember, Germany is lacking Norwegian iron ore, and is probably getting reduced quantities of Swedish ore, so their preparations will be affected, plus the late start means less territory taken before winter sets in (and that will have a major effect on the ability to resupply their troops, so the offensives still stop). All of this means that far less industry is either captured or needs to be evacuated, so the Soviets can rebuild much more quickly, and with better equipment. Also, with the war, Spain suddenly becomes a drag, able to offer some troops, but at a high cost in food and fuel.

Basically, the original PODs are good, but after that it devolves into an impossible axiswank.

And then of course, Wendel Wilkie is defeated in the '44 election by a president who's not an isolationist, and suddenly the US is in anyway.

That makes the key issue the question of war with Japan. After Pearl Harbour does the US under President Wilkie conentrate on defeating japan first while th war in Europe takes second priririty. If the Germans have ovrrrun the Middle East and defeated Russia US troops re deployed to the UK only to help defefend against a Germman invasion. No offensive moves in the uropean theatre until after the defeat of Japan.
Except that as with Norway and France for the Germans, the Pacific and Europe are more-or-less mutually exclusive in requirements, the Pacific requires a lot of heavy surface ships, the Atlantic mostly only needs destroyers and maybe a few cruisers, plus maritime patrol aircraft, which aren't greatly useful in the Pacific, at least in the early stages, and they need prepared strips, they can't much from half-prepared coral atolls, and not at all from carriers.
 
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There is a big issue there, Japan will only invade if the west embargoes fuel and other imports, an embargo that OTL was led by the US.

Japanese nationalists always wanted the Southern Resource Area. France is broken, Britain is on the ropes, and the Netherlands is conquered, and the US has explicitly denied any thought of intervention...

In addition, if they go for the Pacific colonies, they'll also go after the Philippines...
Why? If the US is not going to intervene, why must Japan attack the Philippines or any other US territory? Are they affected by Mind Control Lasers?

In addition, Japanese attacks won't see Australia or NZ backing down, not by a long shot.
Uh huh. Even when left defenseless by Britain, even when subjected to repeated Japanese bombardments and strafing, Aussies and Kiwis would never give up their unconditional support of Mother Britain. But it doesn't matter, because Japan can destroy Melbourne, Sydney, Perth, Brisbane, Wellington, Auckland, and Christchurch, at which point Australia and New Zealand are out of the war anyway.[/QUOTE]
As for the German attacks into the USSR, remember, Germany is lacking Norwegian iron ore...
There isn't much.
... and is probably getting reduced quantities of Swedish ore...
There may be some reduction due to not having water transport in winter. However, Germany has the major iron ore field at Briey in France, so there isn't going to be a serious shortage.
... so their preparations will be affected, plus the late start means less territory taken before winter sets in (and that will have a major effect on the ability to resupply their troops, so the offensives still stop).
That was all in the TL. Didn't you read it?

All of this means that far less industry is either captured or needs to be evacuated, so the Soviets can rebuild much more quickly, and with better equipment.
If they last that long. No Lend-Lease, no Second Fronts.
Also, with the war, Spain suddenly becomes a drag, able to offer some troops, but at a high cost in food and fuel.
But also note there is no Balkan campaign, and the North African/Middle Eastern campaign is finished.

Basically, the original PODs are good, but after that it devolves into an impossible axiswank.
No Lend-Lease, no Second Fronts; it still takes the Axis over two years to break the USSR.

And then of course, Wendel Wilkie is defeated in the '44 election by a president who's not an isolationist, and suddenly the US is in anyway.
Can you read? The President elected in 1940 was Burton Wheeler.

And it doesn't matter what happens in 1945, because the challenge was to have Britain on the verge of defeat in 1944.
Except that as with Norway and France for the Germans, the Pacific and Europe are more-or-less mutually exclusive in requirements, the Pacific requires a lot of heavy surface ships, the Atlantic mostly only needs destroyers and maybe a few cruisers, plus maritime patrol aircraft, which aren't greatly useful in the Pacific, at least in the early stages, and they need prepared strips, they can't much from half-prepared coral atolls, and not at all from carriers.
The Allies needed lots of carriers in the Atlantic for ASW. ITTL, with Spain in the war and Axis battleship and cruiser groups raiding across much of the Atlantic, fleet carriers are needed to screen convoys and scout for Axis forces.

VLR aircraft were heavily used in the Pacific for searching and scouting. Many of these aircraft were seaplanes or amphibians (such as the PBY Catalina) and didn't need prepared airfields.
 
Japanese nationalists always wanted the Southern Resource Area. France is broken, Britain is on the ropes, and the Netherlands is conquered, and the US has explicitly denied any thought of intervention...
And Japan can just buy the stuff. Oh not for much longer, sure, but Britain's in no position to make demands

Why? If the US is not going to intervene, why must Japan attack the Philippines or any other US territory? Are they affected by Mind Control Lasers?
PI lies uncomfortably close to the Japanese lines of communication with the SRA, and they can't risk the president doing a turn-around.

Uh huh. Even when left defenseless by Britain, even when subjected to repeated Japanese bombardments and strafing, Aussies and Kiwis would never give up their unconditional support of Mother Britain. But it doesn't matter, because Japan can destroy Melbourne, Sydney, Perth, Brisbane, Wellington, Auckland, and Christchurch, at which point Australia and New Zealand are out of the war anyway.
Bull, they can do damage, but that's nothing compared to what Britain faced in the Blitz.

That was all in the TL. Didn't you read it?
You have only so much fuel available, and less time, so you can cover less distance. Simple maths. Also, I find it doubtful that Stalin would make the same stupid mistake if Britain was effective neutered.

If they last that long. No Lend-Lease, no Second Fronts.
But also note there is no Balkan campaign, and the North African/Middle Eastern campaign is finished.
And that still means squat, because you've shortened the time you have to advance in.

No Lend-Lease, no Second Fronts; it still takes the Axis over two years to break the USSR.
And the Axis acts smarter and more aggressive while everybody makes the same mistakes as OTL.

Can you read? The President elected in 1940 was Burton Wheeler.
Which means quite possibly a revisal of cash-and-carry.

The Allies needed lots of carriers in the Atlantic for ASW. ITTL, with Spain in the war and Axis battleship and cruiser groups raiding across much of the Atlantic, fleet carriers are needed to screen convoys and scout for Axis forces.
Spain in the war isn't a help to the Axis, it's a hindrance, they need either a ton of shipping support, or a ton of resources, depending on whether cash-and-carry is still in place or not.

VLR aircraft were heavily used in the Pacific for searching and scouting. Many of these aircraft were seaplanes or amphibians (such as the PBY Catalina) and didn't need prepared airfields.
Whereas the ones in the Atlantic were mostly 4-engine jobs flying from prepared airfields.
 
PI lies uncomfortably close to the Japanese lines of communication with the SRA, and they can't risk the president doing a turn-around.

"A Day that will live in fame forever" - the US strike from the PI which caught the IJN entirely by surprise. Just a pity the DoW was delayed by the US ambassador in Tokyo's late start on Sunday:)
 
<The Philippines> lies uncomfortably close to the Japanese lines of communication with the SRA, and they can't risk the president doing a turn-around.

In OTL: the US President was a notable interventionist, who stationed the Pacific Fleet in Hawaii as a deterrent to Japan, provided arms to China under Lend-Lease, encouraged US military pilots to form the AVG, and was building up US forces in the Philippines. So Japan expected US intervention against any "Southern Operation", and moved to pre-empt it.

In ATL: the US President is a notable isolationist, opposed to any US involvement in Old World conflicts, and explicitly opposed to the US assisting in the defense of European colonies; the Pacific Fleet remains in Californnia, there is no Lend-Lease aid to China, no AVG, and very likely a much smaller build-up in the Philippines, without B-17s or other long-range weapons. It is highly unlikely President Wheeler would order US intervention against the "Southern Operation", and there are no forces in the Philippines to do it.

But Wheeler might change his mind at some future date, and the US might build up forces in the Philippines - so Japan still attacks the Philippines, thereby guaranteeing US war against Japan immediately.

"everybody makes the same mistakes as OTL..."

Bull, they can do damage, but that's nothing compared to what Britain faced in the Blitz.
They can bomb, strafe, and bombard at will, with effectively no opposition. Granted that carrier strikes will deliver far less weight of bombs; but they can attack by day, as if conducting target practice. Japanese warships can steam into Sydney Harbor and blast away.

If they must have land bases, they can occupy Tasmania, or just Flinders Island, and then send a stream of Bettys against Melbourne. Fraser Island would do for Brisbane. Perth... A beachhead at Sharks Bay would be close enough for bombing, and remote enough that Australian ground attack would be impractical.

And Australia is naked. No combat aircraft except a few obsolete types that would be quickly destroyed. No AA except a few small guns and machine guns. No tanks. No warships. It's one thing to hang on under fire when your own forces are shooting back. It's quite another to be helpless. Australia's troops have all gone to fight for Britain in the Middle East and East Africa and SE Asia. Now lots of them are prisoners, and Britain can't do anything to protect Australia.

I find it doubtful that Stalin would make the same stupid mistake if Britain was effective neutered.
OTL, everyone thought Britain was "effectively neutered" in 1941. And Stalin made that mistake.

And that still means squat, because you've shortened the time you have to advance in.
And the effect is, basically, to cancel the Vyazma battle and TAIFUN. Substantially fewer Soviet casualties, but - the Axis do not overreach, and have some time to prepare for the Soviet counterattack.

And the Axis acts smarter and more aggressive while everybody makes the same mistakes as OTL.
Well, no. The US makes a completely different set of mistakes.

Which means quite possibly a revisal of cash-and-carry.

"Revision" or "revival"? Wheeler would be opposed even to continuation of "cash and carry"; which in any case would do Britain little good, as by 1941 Britain was out of "cash".

Spain in the war isn't a help to the Axis, it's a hindrance...
Spain in the war, and the Axis takeover of French North Africa, effectively breaks the British strategic blockade of Germany. That's a big advantage for the Axis. It also largely severs British SLoCs to anywhere but North America. That's another advantage.

Yes, Spain would also be a burden to the Axis in other respects, but a net hindrance? The Allies didn't think so at the time; they worked very hard to keep Spain neutral.

Whereas the ones in the Atlantic were mostly 4-engine jobs flying from prepared airfields.
Allied VLR aircraft in the Atlantic included PBY Catalinas, such as the one that found Bismarck in 1941 (with an American co-pilot), and Dan Gallery's squadron in Iceland in 1942. RAF Coastal Command included large numbers of Short Sunderland flying boats.

VLR patrols in the Pacific included many B-24s, including the specialized PBY4-2 Privateer, which had a single vertical tailplane. Two Privateer squadrons conducted patrol ops from the Marianas and the Philippines in 1945.

So really, there is no evidence that the aircraft needs of the Pacific and Atlantic theaters were disjoint.
 
Take Wikings three fish TL were Churchill is killed and Halifax negotiates a peace. Then let the Soviets be defeated in 1942/43 and in 1944 Tabun loaded V1's a rains down over southern England with bombers doing the work further north.
 
They can bomb, strafe, and bombard at will, with effectively no opposition. Granted that carrier strikes will deliver far less weight of bombs; but they can attack by day, as if conducting target practice. Japanese warships can steam into Sydney Harbor and blast away.
You say 'with no opposition', but the Japanese didn't like the idea of AA

If they must have land bases, they can occupy Tasmania, or just Flinders Island, and then send a stream of Bettys against Melbourne. Fraser Island would do for Brisbane. Perth... A beachhead at Sharks Bay would be close enough for bombing, and remote enough that Australian ground attack would be impractical.
Now watch ship after ship sink because the Japanese have no ASW doctrine.

And Australia is naked. No combat aircraft except a few obsolete types that would be quickly destroyed. No AA except a few small guns and machine guns. No tanks. No warships. It's one thing to hang on under fire when your own forces are shooting back. It's quite another to be helpless. Australia's troops have all gone to fight for Britain in the Middle East and East Africa and SE Asia. Now lots of them are prisoners, and Britain can't do anything to protect Australia.
You may want to read up on the Commonwealth Aircraft Corporation, because those guys would have been nationalised to ensure this was not the case.

OTL, everyone thought Britain was "effectively neutered" in 1941. And Stalin made that mistake.
Uh, no, in 1941 Britain was struggling, but far from 'neutered', they were holding well on most fronts.

And the effect is, basically, to cancel the Vyazma battle and TAIFUN. Substantially fewer Soviet casualties, but - the Axis do not overreach, and have some time to prepare for the Soviet counterattack.
If the Germans don't get as far as OTL, the Soviets retain several factories in place, rather than having to tear them up and transport them wholesale back to the Urals.

"Revision" or "revival"? Wheeler would be opposed even to continuation of "cash and carry"; which in any case would do Britain little good, as by 1941 Britain was out of "cash".
Okay then, reversal. of course, this also stops all their exports to Japan, which depending on what the Allies can offer up, may set them against the Americans anyway.

Spain in the war, and the Axis takeover of French North Africa, effectively breaks the British strategic blockade of Germany. That's a big advantage for the Axis. It also largely severs British SLoCs to anywhere but North America. That's another advantage.
Except who are the Germans going to trade with?

Yes, Spain would also be a burden to the Axis in other respects, but a net hindrance? The Allies didn't think so at the time; they worked very hard to keep Spain neutral.
How much food were they after, how much coal, how much oil? Italy was enough of a drag strategically, and she could produce most of her own stuff, whereas there's no way in hell Spain could. The transport infrastructure was in a bad way too, so that needs money.

Allied VLR aircraft in the Atlantic included PBY Catalinas, such as the one that found Bismarck in 1941 (with an American co-pilot), and Dan Gallery's squadron in Iceland in 1942. RAF Coastal Command included large numbers of Short Sunderland flying boats.
How many PBYs? Won't count Sunderlands as they're British, and I'm debating strictly American.

So really, there is no evidence that the aircraft needs of the Pacific and Atlantic theaters were disjoint.
Okay then. Of course, not getting involved in Europe is dependant of Hitler being smart and not declaring war, by no means guaranteed.
 
You would need a hindsight sorta of POD such as the Germans knowing not to get the US into the war at any cost instead of building up their navy invest in bombers and sow Britain's ports with mines. If the USSR is knocked out of the war or humbled significantly, and Britain is going bankrupt, Britain can be nearing defeat economically.
 
You say 'with no opposition', but the Japanese didn't like the idea of AA

Now watch ship after ship sink because the Japanese have no ASW doctrine.
Sunk by what submarines?

You may want to read up on the Commonwealth Aircraft Corporation, because those guys would have been nationalised to ensure this was not the case.

We're talking about Japanese attack in mid-1941. In 1939-1941, CAC built two models of aircraft.

One was the Wirraway trainer, which had a top speed of 220 mph. The RAAF converted some Wirraways to makeshift ground attack planes, and they served in New Guinea. One of them managed to shoot down one Japanese aircraft.

The other was the Wackett trainer, top speed 185 mph, which the RAAF never used for combat.

Somehow, I think that against Zeros, either type would be clay pigeons.

In 1942, CAC produced the Boomerang "emergency" fighter, which was deployed for defense against Japanese bombers, but never managed to close with one, and in fact never shot down even one Japanese plane.

I think it's safe to say that in 1941, Japanese air attacks on Australia wouldn't encounter significant resistance.

Uh, no, in 1941 Britain was struggling, but far from 'neutered', they were holding well on most fronts.
Well, aside from the disastrous losses of shipping in the Atlantic, the blitz of London, the total defeat in Greece and Crete, and the rout across eastern Libya... OK, the British defeated the Italians in East Africa, and the French in Syria, and Iraq... But Stalin thought they were so bad off that they were desperately trying get the USSR involved by tricks.

If the Germans don't get as far as OTL, the Soviets retain several factories in place, rather than having to tear them up and transport them wholesale back to the Urals.
Is that supposed to be a decisive factor? Really?

Except who are the Germans going to trade with?
Latin America. It may shock you, but even if Britain (or even the U.S.) wants Latin America to boycott the Axis, there are several countries thate won't just go along.

How many PBYs?
I don't know, and I'm not going to spend hours researching it. I know that there were substantial numbers of amphibians and seaplanes, and substantial numbers of land-based planes, used as VLR patrol aircraft in both theaters.

Okay then. Of course, not getting involved in Europe is dependant of Hitler being smart and not declaring war, by no means guaranteed.
Why on earth would Hitler declare war on the US when the US is not

  • Giving vast amounts of military and economic aid to Germany's foes.
  • Patrolling most of the Atlantic against U-boats
  • Explicitly pledged to "the destruction of Nazi tyranny"
  • At war with a German ally
and when the US President has explicitly and repeatedly declared his unbending opposition to US involvement in the European war? Orbital Mind Control Lasers?
 
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