AHC: Britain In The Central Powers

Love these POD's, it's surprising how easy it (apparently) is to strangle the Entente Cordiale in the cradle.

Let's roll with Fashoda going, if not hot, than warmer than OTL, and Russia manages to pull off a draw in the Russo-Japanese War. In addition, let's say that when WW1 does kick off, Germany decides that, given Russia's apparent awakening/not getting its ass handed to it, means they need to go East first and fight France defensively. The UK sits on the sidelines, until France does what Germany did OTL and decides to go through Belgium to get to Germany. How does the rest of the war kick off?

Part of it depends on when exactly this happens, I would assume. If it's 1910, then the Central Powers might still look quite scary; in 1920 Britain is going to be throwing fits over the Franco-Russian alliance.

If France is violating Belgium's neutrality and Russia is being more threatening in Asia, but Germany looks poised to dominated to Europe, you might get continued neutrality with preferential trading to whoever Britain hates less.

If the Franco-Russian alliance looks poised to dominate Europe and Russia is being more threatening in Asia and there's greater colonial hostility between France and Britain, you might get the British diving in fully to support the Germans. At minimum you'll get British finance funding the Central Powers and whatever support they can get away with while not entering the war. A declaration that the Mediterranean is under British protection and none can impact the trade there, which just so happens to keep German trade from being interdicted. No French/German ships in the Channel either.

I'm also curious as to what the naval balance of forces between Germany and France are, since that could depend on the particulars that haven't quite been nailed down. France could have invested in a stronger navy if there's greater colonial competition with Britain, and what happened with the German naval program is completely up in the air. If France is capable of stepping up any kind of blockade on Germany, I imagine Britain would force a climbdown there much to French ire (for the second scenario).
 
This is a pre-1900 POD, but here it goes.

Things go sideways at Fashoda, but not enough to cause outright war. But Britain is still extra leery of France now. The Spanish-American War is delayed a few years so Japan makes a play for the Philippines instead of Korea, this ultimately kicks off the war.

America plays a little more bold in the Venezuelan Crisis, and even though the end result is largely OTL Britain and Germany close ranks when things get heated.

When the Moroccan Crisis breaks out Britain ends up backing Germany (mostly because they're still angry with the French). The Pact of Cartagena never happens, but France and Spain agree to help protect each other's interests in the western Mediterranean. France sends feelers out to Italy knowing Italy wants a piece of the action in Tripoli and offers to turn a blind eye to Italian interests in the region.

The next crisis will be the Bosnian Crisis. There hasn't been an Anglo-Russian Entente yet (both sides are dragging their heels, especially Britain). Britain gets ruffled feathers with over the issue of the straits and this causes more suspicion of Russia in the UK.

We have the Ottoman-Italian War which I outlined earlier.

In the far East during the Mongolian Revolution (1911), Russia makes a big play in China and grabs Mongolia, Dzungaria and parts of Manchuria making Port Arthur contiguous with Russia proper. Britain loses it and is terrified of Russian influences in Tibet and an invasion of India.

This might lead to a neutral but pro CP Britain if a war occurs. The naval race might be butterflied away if Britain can come to some sort of agreement with Germany, and Italy is probably way more pre-France than Germany after the Bosnian Crisis and the alt Ottoman-Italian War.

Thoughts?
 

BooNZ

Banned
Yeah. If you can avoid the German naval build-up which unnerved the UK, keep British relations with France and Russia cool - a Fashoda incident that doesn't quite break out into war and Russia squeaking a draw or slim victory against Japan for example, then you could see the British gravitate towards the Central Powers. Many observers including the Germans themselves were under the belief that with Russia's on-going industrial and military expansions by 1916 or so they would be too strong for Germany to defeat, if you can delay the war for a few years from our timeline then Russia and France become the perceived stronger powers on the continent that need to be counterbalanced. IIRC up until the Great War Britain had close cultural links and relations with both Germany and Austria-Hungary.

The Germans felt as threatened by the Russian Army as the British felt threatened by the German Navy - that is to say, not at all. A useful trick to talk up the opposition to improve respective budgets...

I understood UK/Russian relations were likely to come under pressure over Persia/Iran and the UK/German relation were starting to thaw, with the Germans having effectively lost the naval race. Also, the Anti German cabal (Churchill, Crowe, Grey etc) would not be in power forever...
 
Okay, so Britain sides with the CP. In Europe I suspect the war will be short, France will quickly be cut off from all Atlantic shipping (British surface warships working together with German U-boats would a be a hell of a barrier), meaning she can only draw troops and resources from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, and maybe not even that if Italy can be persuaded to cooperate with the CP, in exchange for getting Tunisia and Algeria at the end of the war. That's unless she can really pull one over on Germany in double-time.
 
It's hard after 1900. I think you could get Britain in pretty easily if Friedrich III and Alexander II survive. The far more liberal Friedrich would likely seem much more approachable and friendly to Britain than Wilhelm, and would be much less likely to unnecessarily piss them off. Meanwhile, having a competent reformer like Alexander II on the throne of Russia will likely make it seem far more dangerous to Britain than the reactionary, stagnating and nearly collapsing Russia of OTL.
 

Redbeard

Banned
It's hard after 1900. I think you could get Britain in pretty easily if Friedrich III and Alexander II survive. The far more liberal Friedrich would likely seem much more approachable and friendly to Britain than Wilhelm, and would be much less likely to unnecessarily piss them off. Meanwhile, having a competent reformer like Alexander II on the throne of Russia will likely make it seem far more dangerous to Britain than the reactionary, stagnating and nearly collapsing Russia of OTL.

Yeah, Friederich III surviving would be a good starting point. Not just because the cordial feelings of Friederich and his Queen towards GB but because Germany is much less likely to throw herself into seriously challenging GB's naval supremacy.

Without that challenge the French and Russian colonial ambitions will stand out and Germany be the natural ally on the continent to keep the Russians and French from dominating/splitting the continent.

We are used to seeing Germany until 1945 as this very aggressive player, which it indeed was - declaring war on most of the world two times inside 25 years - but beneath this Germany actually was in a very vulnerable and squeezed position - ie. the typical British ally on the continent.

The determination with which Germany after Bismarck "fucked up" her strategic position is quite stunning. Never has such technological, tactical, operational and economical excellency been so effectively outbalanced by such levels of strategic stupidity!
 
I almost entirely agree with you.

Except on one decisive point which I already mentioned elsewhere. From 1815 on, France will never ever again go to war against Britain, unless It has previously built an alliance dominating continental Europe.

Britain's strategic policy always was, at least from 1688 on, to ally with coalitions in ordre to prevent any power becoming dominant on the european continent.

It sent against France as long as France was dominant (1688-1815), then It worked to contain Russia (1815-1856), then It want against Germany (from 1890 on).
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Why France? People were under the belief that Russia was the new potential giant-in-waiting that would be able to match Germany on the field of battle, plus thanks to conflicts in Central Asia and fears over India Russia had been the main British bogey-man for decades previously which can be tapped back into.


It has to be France because you can invade Britain from France but not from Russia.

Russia is going to be obscenely powerful if the Entente wins in 1914 which they expected to do. The British were willing to risk it rather than have the Germans dominate the Normandy coast

In Europe, the British may be able to form an Triple Alliance with France and Italy after the war to stop Russia. Might not but at least there's hope
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Gosh there are so many-

Maybe have the Italians win at Adowa and Crispi stay in power

Either the Russians win the Japanese war or even more interesting, the Russians and the Japanese decide to partition China and cut everyone else out

The Spanish join the Franco-Russian alliance after Britain burns them in the Spanish-American War

The British are more reasonable and don't follow the provocative policies toward Germany in the 1890's

The Americans don't fight the Spanish War and still view getting the British out of the Western Hemisphere to be their manifest destiny. To achieve this, the Americans join the French and the Russians in a grand entente of their own


This is fun- there are just so many possibilities
 
A note aside

Imperial German Foreign policy is IMHO weird - Imagine I have a neighbour who has an enemy (1:1), who my neighbour intimidates and sometimes beats them up. My neighbour's enemy naturally looks for a friend for support. My neighbour now has two enemies (1:2). Then my neighbour starts threatening his best friend across the street . . . forcing his best friend to become my neighbour's enemy (1:3). My neighbour then attacks his neighbour causing the opposed and aforesaid Three-Party's to intervene (1:4) and a fight breaks out.
While the fight is going on some street traders are attacked by my neighbour, causing their massive family join the fight (1:5).


Imperial German Foreign policy - Peace: Make enemies. Make more enemies. Get into War: Make enemies. Make more enemies. Lose.
 

Fenlander

Banned
Another factor might be removing the very francophile Edward VII from the equation, either by death or scandal.
 
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