AHC: Bring World War Two to South America

Honestly just have one of the many regional conflicts boil over. Argentina and Chile over the Beagle islands, Chile Peru and Bolivia over Chiles northern provinces. Ecaudor and Peru over their border. There are a hundred and one conflicts that are taken pretty seriously in the region. Just one of them boiling over and you could pretty easily get a domino effect. Especially the ones involving Chile...
 
DValdron's rather excellent Axis of Andes timeline is worth checking out. His premise, and I think it's correct, is that rather than spreading WWII to South America it's more plausible for South American conflicts to come to WWII- in this case, Ecuador's border conflicts become embroiled in the larger war in much the same way as the Italian side wars and the Sino-Japanese conflict.
 

guinazacity

Banned
DValdron's rather excellent Axis of Andes timeline is worth checking out. His premise, and I think it's correct, is that rather than spreading WWII to South America it's more plausible for South American conflicts to come to WWII- in this case, Ecuador's border conflicts become embroiled in the larger war in much the same way as the Italian side wars and the Sino-Japanese conflict.

That was a great timeline.
 
If a few indigenous fascist movements get established before fascism per se is seen as a threat to US interests, then you could get some sympathetic pro-ish Axis South American governments. But there will be plenty of economic and political pressure brought to bear no later than the Fall of France and the Battle of Britain. Any remaining sympathies will have to be buried by the end of 1941 or actual armed conflict will be, at the very least, openly on the table.

As much as I tire of replies to any US reaction in an ATL WWII scenario defaulting to "the mighty awakened giant will unleash unlimited righteous unpleasantness on any country foolish enough to do ___", I cannot but feel that the US government won't treat any South American government's pro Axis activities post December '41 as the 1940's equivalent of giving the US Marine Corps an all-access backstage pass. The US has had no problem with authoritarian regimes, but every problem with uncooperative ones, and every South American would have known this.
 
Argentina is heavily Italian, more so than it is Spanish actually, as evidenced by Pope Francis though Argentinian born is of Italian ancestry only and no Spanish blood. And we all know Argentina was also pro-Axis. Paraguay was also pro-Axis, and has had German immigration of significant influence notable in that a German descendant- Alfredo Stroessner, became president soon after WWII. There's a reason South America was a popular destination for Nazis fleeing from war crime tribunals, plots were plenty to turn Paraguay in particular into a Fourth Reich. Peru has a significant Japanese immigrant population to boot. Argentina and Japan had their first embassies established in 1940... that's in the middle of the war! Ties weren't severed until 1944. With all the wars and border conflicts throughout South America it is not unlikely or ASB to see one or more decide that it would be a good time for revanchism. Paraguay, Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia all had scores to settle. Being "scared of the US" is more an ASB a reason to NOT join the Axis than it is a realistic reason as to why the South American nations did not in OTL. As Argentina in the 1980s can tell you- they aren't scared of wars that might piss off the US.

President Roca brought German advisors to modernize the Argentine Army by the start of the 20th Century, which cause a Pro-German tendency among the army.
The economy, however, was geared towards exporting food to Britain, to the point that, during the early 1930s and the protectionist policies brought worldwide because of the crisis, the Argentine Foreign Affairs minister defended a trade treaty with the UK by saying "Economically speaking, for all intends and purposes, Argentina is a part of the British Empire"... as a good thing.
In 1939, after the sinking of the Graf Spee in the River Plate, the Argentine government consulted with the UK and the USA about passing a resolution which, while short of a declaration of war against Germany, would declare Argentina as a pro-Allied neutral. The American government told the Argentine government not to do it and then caused a diplomatic incident the next year by leaking that.
That's your "Pro-Axis" government.
But you will tell me "Hey, but Peron was an antisemite who received two (yes, two) Nazi war criminals who entered the country with fake IDs!"
First, not only Peron came into power in 1946, but Argentina also received some 8,000 jews after WWII (on top of the hundreds of thousands who had immigrated in the decades before). That's 4,000 surviving jews per Nazi criminal. Peron also had warm relationships with the State of Israel and the local Jewish community. You can read more here
http://www.clarin.com/sociedad/Raanan-Rein-Peron-catapulto-argentina_0_1418858444.html

And, BTW, I miss the part in which Japan was at war with the Allied powers during 1940
 
True, but in order to have an US air bridge from Brazil to Senegal, you would need to have an air bridge from the US too Brazil. At best, this requires flyover/refueljng rights from Coba, the Dominican Republic and Venezuela.

No, it doesn't. Florida-Bahamas-Puerto Rico-Guadeloupe-Trinidad-British Guiana-French Guiana-Brazil works just fine.
 
The friendly neutrality the Germans got under Farrell and Peron was all they reasonably could expect to get. Argentina was too dependent on food exports to Great Britain to actually join the Axis. Moreover, to actually join the war on the German side would be suicidal because it would invite attack from authoritarian but pro-Allied Brazil: "By this time, the United States considered the option of supporting Brazil in an attack against Argentina, rather than attacking Argentina themselves. The Brazilian ambassador in Washington pointed out that Buenos Aires could be completely destroyed by the Brazilian air force. This would have allowed Argentina to be dominated without the open intervention of the United States, who would support Brazil by providing ships and bombs." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentina_during_World_War_II
 
If a few indigenous fascist movements get established before fascism per se is seen as a threat to US interests, then you could get some sympathetic pro-ish Axis South American governments. But there will be plenty of economic and political pressure brought to bear no later than the Fall of France and the Battle of Britain. Any remaining sympathies will have to be buried by the end of 1941 or actual armed conflict will be, at the very least, openly on the table.

As much as I tire of replies to any US reaction in an ATL WWII scenario defaulting to "the mighty awakened giant will unleash unlimited righteous unpleasantness on any country foolish enough to do ___", I cannot but feel that the US government won't treat any South American government's pro Axis activities post December '41 as the 1940's equivalent of giving the US Marine Corps an all-access backstage pass. The US has had no problem with authoritarian regimes, but every problem with uncooperative ones, and every South American would have known this.

I think I basically agree here, so lets try a thought example within the not completely joining the axis limits.
Events happens in Brazil and they really like the axis, maybe also some nice toys (and a bit of lignite coal:D). They want to help, but for good reasons they don't dare declaring war on Britain and so forth. How much can they do to help?
Refueling German ships and subs
Repairing German ships and subs
Providing intel (eg. real juicy British tanker heading that direction)

From this scenario you could on the one hand imagine a bit of pro-German support, but on the other hand also a miscalculation. Maybe then you'll see Brazil (or another country) a war. Not intended, but in war nevertheless.
 
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