AHC bring large scale fighting to the American theaters during WW2

The issue was raised recently on this board of Argentina deciding to make a grab for the Falklands in 1940. Some poster provided a good deal of information about how anglophilic both the Argentine public and leaders were at the time, and about how the "get back the Malvinas" thing was really created after the war by cynical governments trying to distract from their own considerable failings in domestic policy.
I was that poster, and let me tell you again how unlikely it would be, not only for Argentina, but for ANY South American country to join the Axis.

Aside from the domestic considerations I outlined in the other thread, most South American countries at this time traded very little with each other, most of their trade was composed of commodity exports sold to European nations (in the case of Argentina and Brazil) and to the USA (in the case of Central America and the North Andean countries), meaning all of South America was dependent on the good graces of the Royal Navy and the US Navy to keep the sea lanes open in the Atlantic.

Unless Germany can prove that it can dominate the seas as well as the continent, and become a proper safeguard to South American shipping, they are gonna have a hard time convincing any South American country to join their side, since no South American leader no matter how stupid is gonna torpedo his own economy only to be left at the mercy of the US.

Since in OTL, Germans proved effective at sinking foreign shipping but not at protecting it, I don't see any South American country joining the Axis, even in the scenario of Germany winning the war I don't see any South American country defying the US so brazenly, not even proud, wealthy, distant 1940s Argentina.

Neutralism is as close to Germany as it gets.

However, Italy joining the Axis in June 1940 made absolutely no sense too.
Italy was the birthplace of fascism, so that already gives it a common cause with Nazi Germany, it also conducted most of its trade through inland routes and had a sizeable population and internal market to withstand trade shocks, it also had a large war industry and it was an impoverished country that saw little to gain in the 1930s international system. Neither of these factors applies to Argentina, and not actually studying the leaders of the period seems intellectually lazy. In any case, German U-boats are not going to stop US Marines from landing in La Plata.

The US would not allow Brazil to take Argentine provinces either, you are probably just going to see some limited border clashes in Misiones if Brazil is Allied, and US Marine amphibious landings near Buenos Aires, though going on a long shot these might not be necessary, it may be that all the US needs to do is a boring blockade of all shipping on the Rio de la Plata until the Argentine government falls.

Brazil joining the Axis is another long-shot possibility. The scenario would be that the fascists take over Brazil in the 1930s and join the Axis before the war has broken out. They then declare war on Britain and France in June 1940 for the same reason Mussolini did, the war is going to be over soon anyway and they might as well get French Guinea and some Atlantic islands out of the deal. Big mistake. That has a bigger effect. Brazil is too big for the British to really take on, but once the United States come in, instead of Torch you will have an expedition to seize Pernambuco and eliminate the u-boat bases there. This develops into a full scale campaign, that basically replaces the Tunisian and Italian campaigns IOTL.
Again extremely unlikely, Getúlio Vargas' Estado Novo already had important ties to Portuguese integralism and fascism, but again economic and geopolitical interests took precedent over ideology, and the Brazilians sent a expeditionary force to Southern Italy despite Vargas being in many respects almost a fascist sympathizer himself at the beginning of his rule.
 
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If Germany had purchased Cuba from Spain befor Spain and the United States went to war,and somehow managed to keep it after the treaty of Versailles,(finding a black woman in Woodrow Wilson's family tree would do the trick)

Would that be a breach of the Monroe Doctrine?
 
IMHO the USA would not tolerate German bases in the Western Hemisphere. While this or that South American country becoming fascist and "friendly" to Germany could be lived with, and even some occasional ships used to refuel/rearm U-boats ignored or treated with nasty diplomatic notes, full fledged German presence would not be tolerated, even by the most isolationist elements in the US. I will exclude the Deutsches-Amerikaner Volksbund and the America First movements from this. Most South American countries were heavily reliant on trade with the USA, and Germany simply could not fill this void - especially after the start of WWII when essentially all trade between South America and Germany cut off.

For serious fighting in the Western Hemisphere, you need several PODs much earlier. Intra-Latin fighting not directly attached to either side will be ignored. A suicide raid by the Japanese on the Panama Canal is possible with a great deal of luck and the willingness to lose 100% of attacking force. The Panama Canal was pretty well defended and the odds of a successful raid doing serious damage were pretty slim - and you'll need several very valuable tankers to allow the warships to get there even one way.
 
IMHO the USA would not tolerate German bases in the Western Hemisphere. While this or that South American country becoming fascist and "friendly" to Germany could be lived with, and even some occasional ships used to refuel/rearm U-boats ignored or treated with nasty diplomatic notes, full fledged German presence would not be tolerated
Indeed, people forget that Argentina in OTL in 1944-45 was subject to US economic sanctions and was not allowed to join the UN until it declared war on Germany, which it did a month before their surrender. Argentina's biggest trade partner was the UK at the time so the US sanctions weren't so crippling, but for the countries in North South America and Central America the effects would have been even worse.

All of that for being neutral, the US would not tolerate any South American country joining the Axis, it would be suicide for that country's leadership.
 
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