AHC: Breckinridge in 1860

With a change during or after the conventions, and without changing the nomination of Abraham Lincoln, have Breckinridge win the 1860 election
 
Honestly, there probably was no way for Breckenridge to win outright. There was, however, the Fusion ticket in New York and Pennsylvania. The Democratic electors could have voted for Breckenridge had he been within striking distance of an electoral vote victory. Of course, Lincoln won outright, so you would need a divergence at some point.

After the convention, though... uh, yeah, too late. Republicans were pretty much fated to win in 1860. Most voters in the North were outraged by the Dred Scott decision in particular, and Lincoln was a good, moderate candidate which most people in the North accepted. Perhaps if Buchanan resigned right before the election, Breckenridge, who was Vice President, became President, and some Northern state seceded, it would really change things. Then maybe a rally 'round the flag effect would lead to some of the "swing states" voting Democratic. I sincerely doubt any Northern state would have seceded at all, though.
 
What I was thinking would be a unity ticket from the democrats, avoiding their north south split and butterflying away the constitutional unionists

The republican margin in states like California and Oregon was fairly narrow already, and perhaps a unity ticket could win illinois, putting Breckinridge only a few electoral votes from the presidency
 
There was no chance of an actual unified ticket with such a late divergence. The Northern and Southern Democrats were as almost as divided from each other as they each were from the Republicans. Honestly, I'm not so sure that you could bridge this conflict with a divergence in 1856, either. Popular sovereignty was a dead letter in the South, and among Republicans in the North, for opposite reasons.

Also, this should be in the pre-1900 section.
 
With a change during or after the conventions, and without changing the nomination of Abraham Lincoln, have Breckinridge win the 1860 election

It's not hard to have Breckinridge win if the race goes into the House, as I explain at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ns-the-election-of-1860.431939/#post-16151177 You just need a few southern Bell supporters to vote for him. But getting the race into the House--especially if Lincoln is the Republican nominee--is the problem. It's not too hard to see Lincoln losing CA, OR, IL, and the four electoral votes he won in NJ. But that would still leave him with 162 electoral votes--ten more than needed to win outright. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1860 And none of the remaining states was nearly as close as even Illinois (3.5 points). The next closest state is NY, where Lincoln defeated a fusion ticket by 7.4 points--not an easy margin to overcome. IN would be a possibility, but Jesse Bright hated Douglas so much that the state gave Breckinridge his highest percentage in the Old Northwest, leaving Lincoln 8.7 points ahead of Douglas in that state.
 
What I was thinking would be a unity ticket from the democrats, avoiding their north south split and butterflying away the constitutional unionists

The republican margin in states like California and Oregon was fairly narrow already, and perhaps a unity ticket could win illinois, putting Breckinridge only a few electoral votes from the presidency

Even if a unity ticket were possible with a POD during or after the conventions (IMO it wasn't) it would not choose Breckinridge as its standard-bearer. That would mean not a compromise but a complete surrender by the Douglasites. The usual candidate mentioned for a unity ticket was Horatio Seymour. But Jefferson Davis's account (that Breckinridge and Bell were willing to withdraw in favor of a compromise candidate but Douglas was not) is very questionable, as I indicate at https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/ahc-unify-the-democrats-in-1860.333109/#post-9888813

And yes, once again, this should be moved to pre-1900.
 
Even with having a Copperhead forcing out Stephen A. Douglas and with Breckinridge and Bell both willing to withdraw in favor for the compromise candidate of Horatio Seymour onto the ticket, this ticket still does not swing the votes in the main states of New York, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Pennsylvania, meaning you don't push Lincoln out of the white house. The end result is President Lincoln but with on the Electoral College on his side.
1860 worse result.png
 
It is conceivable that Seymour would do better in New York than the anti-Lincoln fusion ticket did in OTL, and just barely conceivable (though unlikely) that he would carry the state. This is partly because of his home state advantage, and partly because although fusion was meant to unite the opposition to Lincoln, there may have been some Douglasites who hated Breckinridge so much that they would not vote for a slate containing Breckinridge electors and some Buchanan-Breckinridge Democrats who felt the same way about a slate containing Douglasites. The fact that as late as 1859 those Democrats who were endorsed by the Americans mostly defeated the Republicans (very narrowly) in New York https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_state_election,_1859 does suggest that the fusion ticket did a little worse than a single Democratic candidate (especially if he were from New York) backed by Bell supporters would have done. But I agree that Lincoln would still probably carry the state.
 
It is conceivable that Seymour would do better in New York than the anti-Lincoln fusion ticket did in OTL, and just barely conceivable (though unlikely) that he would carry the state. This is partly because of his home state advantage, and partly because although fusion was meant to unite the opposition to Lincoln, there may have been some Douglasites who hated Breckinridge so much that they would not vote for a slate containing Breckinridge electors and some Buchanan-Breckinridge Democrats who felt the same way about a slate containing Douglasites. The fact that as late as 1859 those Democrats who were endorsed by the Americans mostly defeated the Republicans (very narrowly) in New York https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_state_election,_1859 does suggest that the fusion ticket did a little worse than a single Democratic candidate (especially if he were from New York) backed by Bell supporters would have done. But I agree that Lincoln would still probably carry the state.
I've just found this, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York,_1860
Republican Abraham Lincoln of Illinois Hannibal Hamlin of Maine 362,646 53.71%
Democratic Stephen A. Douglas of Herschel Vespasian Johnson of Georgia 312,510 46.29%

Which if you add Seymour's home state advantage as you said, we could swing this state and see Democratic 1860 win.
 
I've just found this, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York,_1860
Republican Abraham Lincoln of Illinois Hannibal Hamlin of Maine 362,646 53.71%
Democratic Stephen A. Douglas of Herschel Vespasian Johnson of Georgia 312,510 46.29%

Which if you add Seymour's home state advantage as you said, we could swing this state and see Democratic 1860 win.

Yes, the Fusion ticket in New York is often mistakenly referred to as a "Douglas" ticket. (Just as what is often mistakenly called the "Breckinridge" ticket in Pennsylvania was actually a Breckinridge-Douglas fusion ticket, but some hard core Douglasites refused to accept it and insisted on running a "straight" Douglas ticket, which did very poorly.) My own view is that Seymour might have done a little better than the Fusion ticket, but probably not well enough to carry the state.

And again, will someone please move this to pre-1860?
 
I notice that NJ has een given to Lincoln. Wouldn't Seymour take it in a straight fight?

Very likely. The map colors New Jersey red although it also has the 4-3 split of its electors as in OTL. But in fact Lincoln would probably get no electors from NJ. A few Douglas diehards refused in OTL to vote for the Breckinridge electors (an outgrowth of their hatred of Buchanan and of the southerners who they blamed for the party split) or those for Bell (who after all had been part of the Whig Party that they also disliked). I doubt that they would refuse to vote for Seymour, a Democrat to whom they had no particular objection, and who in this ATL would presumably have the endorsement of Douglas.

Not that it really matters--even if Seymour gets all the electoral votes of CA, OR, and NJ (the only three states where Lincoln got electoral votes without getting an outright majority of the popular vote) he will still lose unless he can somehow carry some state where Lincoln in OTL got more votes than all his opponents combined. That would require either NY or a combination of IL and IN. (The only rationale I can see for his carrying IL or IN is that the very fact that the opposition to Lincoln was divided may have discouraged some potential anti-Lincoln voters and lead them to stay home--or may have made them worry about "chaos" if the race went into the House.)
 
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