With a change during or after the conventions, and without changing the nomination of Abraham Lincoln, have Breckinridge win the 1860 election
With a change during or after the conventions, and without changing the nomination of Abraham Lincoln, have Breckinridge win the 1860 election
What I was thinking would be a unity ticket from the democrats, avoiding their north south split and butterflying away the constitutional unionists
The republican margin in states like California and Oregon was fairly narrow already, and perhaps a unity ticket could win illinois, putting Breckinridge only a few electoral votes from the presidency
I've just found this, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York,_1860It is conceivable that Seymour would do better in New York than the anti-Lincoln fusion ticket did in OTL, and just barely conceivable (though unlikely) that he would carry the state. This is partly because of his home state advantage, and partly because although fusion was meant to unite the opposition to Lincoln, there may have been some Douglasites who hated Breckinridge so much that they would not vote for a slate containing Breckinridge electors and some Buchanan-Breckinridge Democrats who felt the same way about a slate containing Douglasites. The fact that as late as 1859 those Democrats who were endorsed by the Americans mostly defeated the Republicans (very narrowly) in New York https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_state_election,_1859 does suggest that the fusion ticket did a little worse than a single Democratic candidate (especially if he were from New York) backed by Bell supporters would have done. But I agree that Lincoln would still probably carry the state.
I've just found this, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York,_1860
Republican Abraham Lincoln of Illinois Hannibal Hamlin of Maine 362,646 53.71%
Democratic Stephen A. Douglas of Herschel Vespasian Johnson of Georgia 312,510 46.29%
Which if you add Seymour's home state advantage as you said, we could swing this state and see Democratic 1860 win.
I notice that NJ has een given to Lincoln. Wouldn't Seymour take it in a straight fight?