AHC: Break Up Canada

[jerseyguy]

What PODs after 1900 could've produced a "velvet revolution of the north" leading to an end to the Canadian Federation?
A violent civil war is unlikely, but Quebec came very close to leaving.

Once Quebec leaves, it would set a precedent for the remaining English speaking provinces to leave as well to avoid being dominated by Ontario.

British Columbia, for instance, has enough large cities and access to the Sea to form a viable republic of Cascadia or something.

 

[Zwinglian]

The premier of Saskatchewan considered western secession if Yes won in Quebec. I think the best POD is 1995. Yes wins the referendum, Western nationalism significantly rises, and the Atlantic provinces would be entirely cut off from the rest of Canada. I think this could cause the total breakup of Canada

 

[Hades]

The premier of Saskatchewan considered western secession if Yes won in Quebec. I think the best POD is 1995. Yes wins the referendum, Western nationalism significantly rises, and the Atlantic provinces would be entirely cut off from the rest of Canada. I think this could cause the total breakup of Canada

The US would probably want to keep out of it until the 1996 election is settled at the absolute earliest. The last thing Clinton needs is the republicans gaining anschluss eyes.

 

[Psmith]

A thing to note is that in 1995 the Canadian Govt were secretly ready to outright ignore the Quebec Referendum if a "Yes" vote went ahead. There would be some unrest if this happened, sure, but a "Yes" vote would probably be narrow enough that said unrest would be limited. I don't think 95 is when to start if you want to partition Canada, you probably have to go a while earlier. Perhaps if WW2 collapses into a Cold War between the Commonwealth and Germany, and Quebec gets fed up with the animosity against Vichy France. That could start a chain reaction, especially if combined with Japanese agitation in British Columbia.

 

[Zwinglian]

A thing to note is that in 1995 the Canadian Govt were secretly ready to outright ignore the Quebec Referendum if a "Yes" vote went ahead. There would be some unrest if this happened, sure, but a "Yes" vote would probably be narrow enough that said unrest would be limited. I don't think 95 is when to start if you want to partition Canada, you probably have to go a while earlier.

The government ignoring the results of the referendum would cause a gigantic mess. The liberals would get wiped out in Quebec in 97 and there would be no feasible government. Having the West entirely dominated by reform, Ontario entirely dominated by the Liberals, and Quebec entirely dominated by the Bloc is going to significantly increase sectionalism and support for secession.

 

[Lafayette_]

I think 'when' it breaks up is crucial. A Canadian national identity is already there by the year 1900, and I'd wager there's little to no chance at all for a full velvet split (and by that I mean 'any other region other than Quebec') to happen after the World Wars.

A rather catastrophic split could happen with a combination of of harsher treatment of Saskatchewan natives by Ottawa and not conceding any autonomy whatsoever to the Quebecois. If both of those regions revolt, I think Columbia follows suit.