AHC: Brazil, the southern Great Power

[The God-Emperor]

The challenge is to have Brazil:
1)Remain a monarchy, or at least be a stable republic. That mean no coups, dictatorships or anything similar.
2)Don't screw the USA for the sake of making it easier, Brazil isn't supposed to be a superpower and the purpose of this challenge is for Brazil to be better, not for everyone else to be worse.
3)Absurd expansionism into the former Spanish America just isn't realistic for Brazil beyond a certain point, between the Andes, the lack of free "empty" land like the USA had, it just isn't feasible. All expansion must be justifiable.
4)The POD can be as far in the past as about 50 years before independence, but if you think you can do it later, be my guest.

Beyond these base rules, that I think are mostly reasonable, do whatever you want.

 

[Hades]

Perhaps the Mexican American War is a "wake up call" of sorts for the other powers of Latin America, and they decide to modernise themselves to avoid that sort of humiliation, whether by the USA or other powers.

 

[luis3007]

Brazil only easy path of expansion is to the south. Have Argentina destroy itself in a worse civil war between federalists and centralists while Brazil takes over Uruguay and the Argentinian provinces one by one.

Then have it use Chile's wars against Bolivia and Peru to take over most of Patagonia (just like Argentina did in OTL). Now you have plenty of land to lure European immigration. Keep the monarchy together and it flows from there.

 

[Dan1988]

^And Paraguay. Don't forget Paraguay.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Sorry, I can't honestly see Brazil expanding past the Parana River/Uruguay (the country, not the river). At some point, it would just be better to hold the remnants of Argentina as puppet states in a manner comparable to the US in Central America than to actively take over and control the land. To the north, maybe they could find a way to grab French Guiana and Suriname and split Guyana with Venezuela, but that would require European assistance, since no way even a Great Power Brazil would start a fight over that considering the uselessness of those lands and lack of any real claim on them.

But otherwise, Brazil has plenty of open land (including temperate/subtropical lands in the south where many Europeans immigrated) and plenty of potential (main issue being that most of Brazil's natural resources aside from rubber are mostly uneconomical to exploit in the 19th/early 20th century minus government subsidies). I don't see why Brazil couldn't at least be as good as early 20th century Argentina if things worked out right, and carry on to the modern day like that. Militarily, remember that Brazil at one point owned the strongest warship in the Western Hemisphere, although I think the money from the dreadnought race could've gone to better purposes than buying warships like that. Point being Brazil can build a strong military if needed.

 

[The God-Emperor]

I think the keys to it are: Army reform, especially when it comes to recruitment, and government logistic and infrastructure. The recruitment system composed of a network of patron-client relationships between the State, the plantation class, and the free poor. These well-established (and in general legitime, for the time) relationships, albeit often ineffective, survived the challenges of recruitment in times of war and prevented reformers from establishing a system of conscription that was regular and fair. Logistics and infrastructure were, and still are, two of Brazil's greatest weaknesses, there isn't much development in the Brazilian interior and the logistics were one of the main reasons we struggled in our wars.

And also, Dan1988, both Paraguay and the rebellious province of Cisplatina are rightful Brazilian clay.

 

[Rdffigueira]

And also, Dan1988, both Paraguay and the rebellious province of Cisplatina are rightful Brazilian clay.

28/08/1828, never forget

I agree with what you guys said above. Just like to point out that in Brazil there were earlier attempts at industrialization that didn't took off, in the late 19th Century, namely by the Barão of Mauá. If these efforts were more successful, while I doubt that Brazil's industrialization could reach the light-speed of Japan or Russia, it would provoke a serious change in economic production as we see a shift from the agrarian to industrial economy. Brazil surely has the untapped resources (like fossil fuels and manpower) to become a significant industrial power, which was delayed until the 1940s in our History due to the pervasive influence of the coffee economy.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

Brazil is going through a bad patch this year, but the place covers half of South America and it has industrialized.

I'm really not sure how they could have done better except at the margins.

Hold Uruguay? Take over the Portuguese holdings in Africa? Avoid the 1889 and 1964 (and 2016?) coups? A space program? OK they can get all of this and still wind up in a position not too far where they are at present.

OTOH, its actually pretty easy to do a Brazil screw. Have more states succeed, put in a worse imperial family, civil war over abolition of slavery or no abolition, the cafe con leite oligarchy remains in power up to the present day, they go full fascist and side with Hitler, a worse currency collapse, you could even figure out a way for them to lose to Paraguay. Any of these could make things much, much worse.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

OK, you could have the Portuguese actually have higher education institutions in Brazil. That potentially changes alot. But I'm not sure if there is much you can do post-independence.

 

[Rdffigueira]

Brazil is going through a bad patch this year, but the place covers half of South America and it has industrialized.

I'm really not sure how they could have done better except at the margins.

Hold Uruguay? Take over the Portuguese holdings in Africa? Avoid the 1889 and 1964 (and 2016?) coups? A space program? OK they can get all of this and still wind up in a position not too far where they are at present.

OTOH, its actually pretty easy to do a Brazil screw. Have more states succeed, put in a worse imperial family, civil war over abolition of slavery or no abolition, the cafe con leite oligarchy remains in power up to the present day, they go full fascist and side with Hitler, a worse currency collapse, you could even figure out a way for them to lose to Paraguay. Any of these could make things much, much worse.

Agreed. Brazil could have easily balkanized if the Braganças had failed to secure a unitary state after the Independence, and the "screws" you pointed out are really plausible.

 

[Simon]

Brazil's only easy path of expansion is to the south. Have Argentina destroy itself in a worse civil war between federalists and centralists while Brazil takes over Uruguay and the Argentinian provinces one by one.

I'd argue against any expansion beyond its our timeline borders - wars are expensive as hell and the occupying of restive conquered nations afterwards not much cheaper, that's all money which would be better spent on investing in education, good governance, and infrastructure.

 

[ByzantineCaesar]

Brazil was slowly getting industrialized in the 1880's, then the republic came and cut all incentives.

 

[Gonzaga]

Brazil was slowly getting industrialized in the 1880's, then the republic came and cut all incentives.

You know, I never really found any historical stats about that. In fact, all the data I could find regarding industrialization shows that there wasn't much difference in the medium rate of industrialization in the late Empire and the Early Republic. One the few reliable indicators I could find (from a collection of economical texts - Economia Brasileira: da Colônia ao Governo Lula, Editora Saraiva) shows the volume of imports of capital (production) goods, that generally are machines used exactly by industries (they aren't finished consumer goods, they indicate that companies are buying equipments in order to produce consumer goods). In 1880, it amounted £ 263.003. In 1885, 456.237 pounds sterling. In 1890, it jumps to 819.011. In 1895, it goes to 985.722. Finally, in 1900 it decreases to 535.693. Of course, we need to count changes in inflation and rate exchanges (that actually didn't change that much between 1880 and 1890), but the numbers hint that the change of the regime didn't decrease the growing demand for industrial machines.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

I think the keys to it are: Army reform, especially when it comes to recruitment, and government logistic and infrastructure. The recruitment system composed of a network of patron-client relationships between the State, the plantation class, and the free poor. These well-established (and in general legitime, for the time) relationships, albeit often ineffective, survived the challenges of recruitment in times of war and prevented reformers from establishing a system of conscription that was regular and fair. Logistics and infrastructure were, and still are, two of Brazil's greatest weaknesses, there isn't much development in the Brazilian interior and the logistics were one of the main reasons we struggled in our wars.

And also, Dan1988, both Paraguay and the rebellious province of Cisplatina are rightful Brazilian clay.

Wasn't the Brazilian Army already the regional champion? They did play the leading role in the war against Paraguay after all. What they need is education and industrialization.

 

[Dain]

Expansion is not really needed for this scenario. Diverting their limited leadership potential to military conquests could just as well prove detrimental. Brazil is easily large enough and has enough population and resources to be able to advance towards the stated aim peacefully.
In any event, domestic hurdles are way more important to overcome. No amount of glorious military adventures can make a country a great power if it remains crippled due to failing or underdeveloped government institutions. Combat corruption, develop the right political culture, take more measures to decrease poverty and grow the middle class, massive investments into the education system, etc...

 

[Faeelin]

You know, I never really found any historical stats about that. In fact, all the data I could find regarding industrialization shows that there wasn't much difference in the medium rate of industrialization in the late Empire and the Early Republic. One the few reliable indicators I could find (from a collection of economical texts - Economia Brasileira: da Colônia ao Governo Lula, Editora Saraiva) shows the volume of imports of capital (production) goods, that generally are machines used exactly by industries (they aren't finished consumer goods, they indicate that companies are buying equipments in order to produce consumer goods). In 1880, it amounted £ 263.003. In 1885, 456.237 pounds sterling. In 1890, it jumps to 819.011. In 1895, it goes to 985.722. Finally, in 1900 it decreases to 535.693. Of course, we need to count changes in inflation and rate exchanges (that actually didn't change that much between 1880 and 1890), but the numbers hint that the change of the regime didn't decrease the growing demand for industrial machines.

It's never made much sense to me either. Why would the Republican elite not want to industrialize?

 

[Moikan Yoloko]

It's never made much sense to me either. Why would the Republican elite not want to industrialize?

The republican lite? In the first republic the elite was composed of Oligarchs, and these people ruled their farms as quasi-feudal lords, it would be very unlikely for them to want to industrialize and lose their benefits, Brazil only started an true industrialization program under Vargas, when he took the power from the Oligarchies.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Take over the Portuguese holdings in Africa? Avoid the 1889 and 1964 (and 2016?) coups? A space program? OK they can get all of this and still wind up in a position not too far where they are at present.

That would all be cool. (Conquering Uruguay, a Hispanophone country, seems a little too much to me.) I wanna see a "things get better and then falls back to Earth exactly the same" timeline. I want to see how Brazilian Angola gets affected.

 

[Gonzaga]

The republican lite? In the first republic the elite was composed of Oligarchs, and these people ruled their farms as quasi-feudal lords, it would be very unlikely for them to want to industrialize and lose their benefits, Brazil only started an true industrialization program under Vargas, when he took the power from the Oligarchies.

But that was exactly what they tried to do in the first great economical plan of the Republic, the "Encilhamento". Of course, it ended in a bubble and economical crisis, but many industries were indeed created due to the bubble. The fact is that it shows that the early Republican government was interested in fomenting industries.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

(Conquering Uruguay, a Hispanophone country, seems a little too much to me.)

I'm no expert on Uruguaian history, but the Portuguese and the Spanish moved into there at about the same time. I've visited the Portuguese settlement, Colonia. There weren't that many people there in the 1820s, so if Pedro I had succeeded in his attempts to hold onto the place, it probably would have wound up as Lusophone.

However, everywhere else in South America, the boundaries Brazil wound up with were pretty much the best they could have gotten. Agree absorbing large Spanish speaking populations or population centers located across large stretches of wilderness is problematic.

You could get Brazil the African colonies by having the Braganzas transfer them to Brazilian jurisdiction during the union of Brazil and Portugal. The problem is that there isn't really any reason to do this, and one reason not too, the lack of capable Brazilian administrators at the time, a consequence of the lack of higher educational institutions in Brazil.