Brazil would have left the independence war severely balkanised and under a republican regime and that's not good.
AHC: Brazil as powerful as the US
- Thread starter Johnrankins
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I'm not aware of non-Portuguese migrants to Brazil in colonial times of any expression but that's just plain ignorance of my part. Non-Portuguese Catholics were certainly not barred from the colonies as at least we have the Azorean example which was partially settled by Flemings (it helped that the Countess of Flanders at the time was a Portuguese-born princess though). As another example, there were loads of non-Portuguese Jesuit priests spread across the empire.
Cross-Atlantic migrations weren't exactly easy so I'm guessing there weren't many non-Portuguese spontaneous migrants to Brazil.
It wouldn't be impossible to give Brazil access to the Pacific. Perhaps they somehow conquer Peru?
The Andes is a mighty adversary...
I once suggested Brazil reaching the Pacific by buying out the areas disputed by Peru and Ecuador and some changes. I was warned that all South American Hispanic countries historically viewed Brazil with suspicion and they would never peacefully agree with its expansion, specially on their own turf.
usertron2020
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The problem with all this is, as others have said, geography. Pure and simple.
Even if the Papal Bull had granted ALL of the Western Hemisphere to Spain (which I don't see Ferdinand and Isabella agreeing to, as it could cost them more territories in Africa), the Spaniards would not have been able to explore, settle, and defend the whole of present day Latin America by themselves. If nothing else, the Spanish Reconquista of Portugal would probably mean that the Dutch will manage to keep Recife'.
Even if some kind of Brazilian Napoleon managed to conquer present day Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia, only Argentina would be a money paying operation. The rest of South America simply has too much Andes Mountains and Amazonian Jungle in the way for the Brazilians to reach, much less conquer and exploit.
What do the Brazilians get for taking the Andes, even if they can? Nothing on the other side except the Pacific Ocean. They get a West Coast, but it's in the South East Pacific. Not much down there. And then there is the little matter of navigating the Straits of Magellen, or Cape Horn!
It's not like crossing the Continental Divide in the Rocky Mountains, which for the US meant reaching and exploiting the riches of the Pacific Northwest and California. Not to mention the mineral treasures all over the Rockies.
One only has to imagine the difficulties of trying to live in a place like the Upper Amazoco Rain Forest compared to the plains of Nebraska.
Even if the Papal Bull had granted ALL of the Western Hemisphere to Spain (which I don't see Ferdinand and Isabella agreeing to, as it could cost them more territories in Africa), the Spaniards would not have been able to explore, settle, and defend the whole of present day Latin America by themselves. If nothing else, the Spanish Reconquista of Portugal would probably mean that the Dutch will manage to keep Recife'.
Even if some kind of Brazilian Napoleon managed to conquer present day Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia, only Argentina would be a money paying operation. The rest of South America simply has too much Andes Mountains and Amazonian Jungle in the way for the Brazilians to reach, much less conquer and exploit.
What do the Brazilians get for taking the Andes, even if they can? Nothing on the other side except the Pacific Ocean. They get a West Coast, but it's in the South East Pacific. Not much down there. And then there is the little matter of navigating the Straits of Magellen, or Cape Horn!
It's not like crossing the Continental Divide in the Rocky Mountains, which for the US meant reaching and exploiting the riches of the Pacific Northwest and California. Not to mention the mineral treasures all over the Rockies.
One only has to imagine the difficulties of trying to live in a place like the Upper Amazoco Rain Forest compared to the plains of Nebraska.
usertron2020
Donor
A good strong country, maybe on the level of France or the Old West Germany? Maybe the UK? (1) But they will still have to find a way to avoid the curse of militarized politics that has haunted Latin America all the way through it's history until recent decades.(2) I remember how anguished the Argentines were over losing the Falklands War, and how there was no excuse for it. After all, their country was rich with natural resources, and well educated. If they had had their act together politically, they would have had a society and a nation quite powerful enough to defeat the British in the Falklands. The downside being, they would have had to have been a democracy, so they never would have gone to war in the first place.
1) But the only way this is as strong as the USA is if the Union loses the ACW.
2) I know. SOME Latin American countries haven't had a dictatorship in many generations. Even in the last century.
The key to a powerful Brazil is Industrialization. Brazil can't become a great power, let alone as strong as the USA if it doesn't industrialize early. However to industrialize two things need to change.
In the Napoleonic wars Napoleon decides to not invade Russia until he has won in Iberia, which he does. Just before the fall of Lisbon the Royal Family and the government flee to Brazil. They are shortly after would followed by a wave of immigration from Portugal. Brazil supports the revolutionaries fighting against the Spanish puppet government, drawing some (Chile, Patagonia and Peru) into its sphere of influence. After the defeat of Napoleon the main branch of the royal family decides to stay in Brazil as it is now larger, richer and more powerful then Portugal.
In the early 19th century industrialization starts. At first this is based on processing agricultural products and manufacturing goods which it is not economical to import from Europe. As Brazil's industry grows it imports raw materials from the rest of South America, latter from southern Africa as well, manufacturers them into finished good for internal consumption or export to Europe. This rapidly grow economy encourages more immigration from Europe.
Thus by the beginning of the 20th century Brazil is a great power with a large developed economy and a sphere of influence stretching across South America and southern Africa.
What to you all think, Plausible?
- A large middle class, to manage the industrial economy and to buy the manufactured products, will have to exist. This will most likely have come from European migration as it will take a very long time to develop a native one.
- Slavery needs to end. For industrialization to be successful both the Government and the wealthy elite need to back it. That won't happen so long as both are dominated by the interests of slave-holding planters.
In the Napoleonic wars Napoleon decides to not invade Russia until he has won in Iberia, which he does. Just before the fall of Lisbon the Royal Family and the government flee to Brazil. They are shortly after would followed by a wave of immigration from Portugal. Brazil supports the revolutionaries fighting against the Spanish puppet government, drawing some (Chile, Patagonia and Peru) into its sphere of influence. After the defeat of Napoleon the main branch of the royal family decides to stay in Brazil as it is now larger, richer and more powerful then Portugal.
In the early 19th century industrialization starts. At first this is based on processing agricultural products and manufacturing goods which it is not economical to import from Europe. As Brazil's industry grows it imports raw materials from the rest of South America, latter from southern Africa as well, manufacturers them into finished good for internal consumption or export to Europe. This rapidly grow economy encourages more immigration from Europe.
Thus by the beginning of the 20th century Brazil is a great power with a large developed economy and a sphere of influence stretching across South America and southern Africa.
What to you all think, Plausible?
usertron2020
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Lt.Gen 767
A very reasoned argument. Now, just move Brazil out of the tropics, get it south of the Tropic of Capricorn, and give them air conditioning in the mid-19th century. Remember, Brazil is hot-HOT-HOT! I know the people are used to that heat, but put them in a 19th manufacturing center? A good reason why industrialization didn't work out so well for the Southern USA prior to a/c either.
A very reasoned argument. Now, just move Brazil out of the tropics, get it south of the Tropic of Capricorn, and give them air conditioning in the mid-19th century. Remember, Brazil is hot-HOT-HOT! I know the people are used to that heat, but put them in a 19th manufacturing center?
A good reason why industrialization didn't work out so well for the Southern USA prior to a/c either.Lt.Gen 767
A very reasoned argument. Now, just move Brazil out of the tropics, get it south of the Tropic of Capricorn, and give them air conditioning in the mid-19th century. Remember, Brazil is hot-HOT-HOT! I know the people are used to that heat, but put them in a 19th manufacturing center?
In OTL a/c wasn't invented until late in the 19th century (1880-1900ish) but early prototypes existed in the 1820s so with increased demand it should be possible by the 1850s. That increased demand could come from the industrialization of southern Brazil.
Also if Brazil does get a lot of industrial workers form Europe they would be very unhappy about working in 30+ degree heat. Hell, demand for a/c might lead to the start of Unionization in Brazil.
pearsonwright
Banned
How about we just weaken America to the point where it is just as Powerful as Brazil?
Maybe no Louisiana Purchase, or a Crushing British Victory in the War of 1812 could work.
Maybe no Louisiana Purchase, or a Crushing British Victory in the War of 1812 could work.
usertron2020
Donor
Napoleon needed that $15,000,000 to finance his wars. It went a long way for him. And Britain was a little busy to engage in a Crushing Victory. When you have an exhausted post-Napoleonic Wars Britain being told by the incoming Prime Minister Duke of Wellington that to conquer America he would need at his disposal the entire Royal Navy (OK), an army of 1,000,000 men
, and ten years to do it in... Yeah, the British weren't interested.This would need a British Intervention in the ACW if anything, which unleashes all kinds of butterflies around the world.
usertron2020
Donor
How far south are you talking about? Rio is pretty far south, and AIUI, pretty hot.
The inland of Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Rio and the other three southern states.
But they already had slaves to work on plantations, which is directly out in the sun. And humid because it's Brazil.Lt.Gen 767
A very reasoned argument. Now, just move Brazil out of the tropics, get it south of the Tropic of Capricorn, and give them air conditioning in the mid-19th century. Remember, Brazil is hot-HOT-HOT! I know the people are used to that heat, but put them in a 19th manufacturing center?
And even though it would be hot and humid in a 19th century hypothetical Brazilian manufacturing center, it wouldn't be any worse than working out in the plantations outside as a slave in OTL Brazil.
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