With the Scottish independence referendum winding down with voters seemingly rejecting independence, it brings up an interesting question in regards to one of the most significant European independence referendums of the last 50 years: the Bosnian independence referendum of 1992.
As you all know, voters overwhelmingly voted for independence with over 99% of those voting opting for independence back in 1992. But turnout was only around 63% as Serbs boycotted the election. Most likely had there been a vote in the predominantly Serbian areas of the country, they in turn would have voted overwhelmingly against independence and we would have seen a 64-36 split in favor of independence. So this brings up my question: is there anyway to have Bosnia-Herzegovina reject independence in 1992?
I think there are a few possible scenarios where this could have happened:
Serbs take part in the election but prior to the election Yugoslavia launches something similar to Morocco's "Green March". A million unarmed Serbs march on Banja Luka as part of a mass demonstration and then "register to vote" at some point prior to the election. As the election was decided by around 2,000,000 votes for independence, this could have tilted the balance to the "no" side. Considering over a million Serbs marched on Kosovo Polje just three years prior I think it could have been done had the Serbs elected to go this route. And I don't think the West was particularly vested in Bosnian independence back in 1992. They might complain, but at the end of the day I don't see them raising that much of a stink over it.
Stuffed ballot boxes in Banja Luka. It would be clearly fraudulent, but if the referendum ended in a "no" vote, even with stuffed ballot boxes, I don't know if the Bosnians would have had enough international support to declare independence. The best I think they could do is demand a new vote with more international monitors.
Croatians do worse in the war. I think that Karadzic clearly didn't put anyone's mind at ease with his incendiary rhetoric leading up to the vote, which seemed to consist of cryptic threats leading up to the vote. But was it possible for this to have worked? If the Serbs were crushing the Croats in the months leading up to the war was it possible for the Bosnians to have said "I don't want that to happen here" and back down? The reason I bring this up is because of something a Bosniak friend of mine once told me. He said the saddest day of his life didn't come during the war, but came when Montenegro became independent. He said that he suddenly realized that "independence for Bosnia was inevitable", and that had they waited a few years they would have gotten it without all the bloodshed. Now I think that might be a by optimistic, but it raises an interesting point nonetheless. Could at least 500,000 Bosnians have decided that the time for independence was not yet upon them and decided to vote no, flipping the election results if the Serbs took part?
The final scenario is if the Croats showed their cards early. If they indicated that they were going to leave Bosnia once the nation voted for independence would it be possible that Bosniaks reject independence over fears of a joint Croatian-Serbian partition of their Republic? Particularly if Yugoslavia said something akin to "no territorial changes for the Republic if it stays."
I think all of these scenarios only delay independence for perhaps 10 years. But I wonder how feasible it is nonetheless. If it would be at all possible to convince a half a million Bosnians to vote for against independence in 1992. Or if this is just impossible?
As you all know, voters overwhelmingly voted for independence with over 99% of those voting opting for independence back in 1992. But turnout was only around 63% as Serbs boycotted the election. Most likely had there been a vote in the predominantly Serbian areas of the country, they in turn would have voted overwhelmingly against independence and we would have seen a 64-36 split in favor of independence. So this brings up my question: is there anyway to have Bosnia-Herzegovina reject independence in 1992?
I think there are a few possible scenarios where this could have happened:
Serbs take part in the election but prior to the election Yugoslavia launches something similar to Morocco's "Green March". A million unarmed Serbs march on Banja Luka as part of a mass demonstration and then "register to vote" at some point prior to the election. As the election was decided by around 2,000,000 votes for independence, this could have tilted the balance to the "no" side. Considering over a million Serbs marched on Kosovo Polje just three years prior I think it could have been done had the Serbs elected to go this route. And I don't think the West was particularly vested in Bosnian independence back in 1992. They might complain, but at the end of the day I don't see them raising that much of a stink over it.
Stuffed ballot boxes in Banja Luka. It would be clearly fraudulent, but if the referendum ended in a "no" vote, even with stuffed ballot boxes, I don't know if the Bosnians would have had enough international support to declare independence. The best I think they could do is demand a new vote with more international monitors.
Croatians do worse in the war. I think that Karadzic clearly didn't put anyone's mind at ease with his incendiary rhetoric leading up to the vote, which seemed to consist of cryptic threats leading up to the vote. But was it possible for this to have worked? If the Serbs were crushing the Croats in the months leading up to the war was it possible for the Bosnians to have said "I don't want that to happen here" and back down? The reason I bring this up is because of something a Bosniak friend of mine once told me. He said the saddest day of his life didn't come during the war, but came when Montenegro became independent. He said that he suddenly realized that "independence for Bosnia was inevitable", and that had they waited a few years they would have gotten it without all the bloodshed. Now I think that might be a by optimistic, but it raises an interesting point nonetheless. Could at least 500,000 Bosnians have decided that the time for independence was not yet upon them and decided to vote no, flipping the election results if the Serbs took part?
The final scenario is if the Croats showed their cards early. If they indicated that they were going to leave Bosnia once the nation voted for independence would it be possible that Bosniaks reject independence over fears of a joint Croatian-Serbian partition of their Republic? Particularly if Yugoslavia said something akin to "no territorial changes for the Republic if it stays."
I think all of these scenarios only delay independence for perhaps 10 years. But I wonder how feasible it is nonetheless. If it would be at all possible to convince a half a million Bosnians to vote for against independence in 1992. Or if this is just impossible?
