AHC: Bob Dole wins in ‘96

Bomster

Banned
If Bill Clinton got into a scandal earlier, could he have lost the election in 1996? How could Bob Dole win that election?
 
Honestly, depending on how early a Scandal Broke, Bob Dole may not even be the nominee. A stronger candidate might've emerged on the Republican side to take down Clinton. Dole was sort of the Mondale of his time, even though he didn't lose that badly. With that said, a Lewinsky Scandal coming out in late summer or early fall of 1996 (the affair started in 1995) and being worse than OTL (Bill gets her pregnant perhaps), that could narrowly put Dole in the White House.
 
If Bill Clinton got into a scandal earlier, could he have lost the election in 1996? How could Bob Dole win that election?

It depends up in what kind of scandal. If it were a sex scandal, then as the whole Lewinsky affair showed the public actually rallied behind Clinton when he came under attack from the GOP. In fact his approval rating was 73% after the impeachment.

In order for a scandal to take down Clinton, it would have to be a Watergate/Iran-Contra type of affair where the President deliberately broke federal law and violated his oath to the Constitution. Even then, the scandal would have to break out every quickly in order for Clinton to lose - Nixon won in 1972 after the Watergate break in.

My general point here is that Clinton was hard to beat in 1996. Not because he was extremely popular at this time (he wasn't), but he's called "Slick Willie" for a reason. It's difficult to attack him and make it stick because he was great at pivoting and deflecting in order to survive politically. Also he was great at positioning himself as a positive contrast with Gingrich and the right wing Congress. The only Republican who lead Clinton in public polling was Colin Powell, but since the thread calls for a Dole Presidency I will try to make this work:

Somehow, Dole beats Clinton and on January 20, 1997 he is inaugurated as the nation's 43rd President. Dole would slash taxes and cut federal spending. He would probably intervene in Kosovo. If he runs in 2000, his age would be an issue but I expect he is reelected on the good economy. 9/11 would probably still happen, but it's possible that Dole's response would be more level-headed than Bush's. (So perhaps a less wide reaching Patriot Act closer to what Orin Hatch originally proposed). Afghanistan is invaded, there might still be an Iraq intervention but with Dole it could be less likely. The GOP wins in 2004, but come 2008 Iraq is a mess and the economy crashes on schedule.
 
. . . 9/11 would probably still happen, . . .
Yes, I agree that is what’s most likely.

Still, in a somewhat different world, someone might do a better job of putting two and two together, someone else probably at the FBI or CIA might decide it’s worth following up on, and . . . we just might get lucky! That is, I will be happy to take a reroll.
 
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Lewinsky got transferred out of the White House to the Pentagon in the Spring of 96, but still had some sort of a relationship with Clinton (phone sex only as she no longer had access to the White House?) into 97.

A tape getting made of one of their steamier phone calls falling into the right hands in the Summer of 96 and Clinton goes down.

Initial public reaction was strongly anti-Clinton. It was only after many, many months and much work through surrogates to delegitimize the Starr investigation as a witch hunt just about two people having sex (however that is defined), that public opinion swayed back to Clinton.
 
Perhaps if Hillary decided enough was enough and filed for divorce months before the election?

Either that or you have to go for worse situation- pregnant Monica claims she was forced into an abortion?
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
Maybe if he had done the Viagra adds earlier, he would have gotten an image as an ordinary guy.
 
I wonder what effects a Dole victory, especially if Dole is inaugurated before the Lewinsky scandal breaks, would have on the religious right's strength and on public interest in sexual harrasment.

I also wonder if "Dole-Gingrich" would abolish the Department of Education, preventing No Child Left Behind from ever happening.
 
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The economy being so good in the mid-1990s makes this tough.

A) Republicans don't overreach following the 1994 Revolution (prevent Gingrich from becoming speaker somehow)
B) Clinton has a series of foreign policy disasters
C) Dole convinces Powell to be his running mate
D) Campaign on issues unrelated to morality'

Maybe the tensions in Korea in the 90s go hot and the country goes sour on Clinton.
 
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