AHC Bismarck's speculative scenario occurred?

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
In a correspondence in the the 1880s (or possibly 1870s) with German-American political activist Carl Schurz, Schurz warned Bismarck about Germany ever coming into conflict with America, saying an angered/mobilized US would be a mighty enemy and surely ally with France against Germany. Bismarck's comeback was that Britain would surely ally with Germany against any Franco-American combination. Bismarck mentioned it then, and possibly on a couple other occasions.

So the challenge is come up with a scenario any time after 1871 and up through the 1st quarter of the 20th century where a Franco-American coalition fights an Anglo-German coalition.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
There's nothing to fight about and nowhere for

In a correspondence in the the 1880s (or possibly 1870s) with German-American political activist Carl Schurz, Schurz warned Bismarck about Germany ever coming into conflict with America, saying an angered/mobilized US would be a mighty enemy and surely ally with France against Germany. Bismarck's comeback was that Britain would surely ally with Germany against any Franco-American combination. Bismarck mentioned it then, and possibly on a couple other occasions.

So the challenge is come up with a scenario any time after 1871 and up through the 1st quarter of the 20th century where a Franco-American coalition fights an Anglo-German coalition.

There's nothing to fight about and nowhere for such a fight to occur.

Best,
 

Asami

Banned
In a theoretical war, the US would slam Britain's teeth in, and France would get it's teeth slammed in. America walks away with several more square miles of territory from the British Empire, Germany walks away with castrating France -- World War 2: Electric Boogaloo will happen eventually.
 
There's nothing to fight about and nowhere for such a fight to occur.

Best,

There could be reasons for an American-German conflict, given how the Germans acted in Samoa, attempting to gain the Phillipines (which was given up quickly), the marriage of German businessmen to Haitians (shocking at those themes for Americans, as you can imagine), the scouting out by Germans of a Venezuelan island to be used as a naval base (they found it would be awful), the attempts to support Colombia against the Americans and Panama(Apparently. Not that it would matter with getting Panama back to Colombia, as it required the Americans to keep the area Colombian in the past).
 
A differently handled "Venezuelan-Crisis" (1895) might be the spark for tensions between UK and the US. The follow up crisis (Germany Britain and Itallyfew others stomp on Venezuela 1902/03) worsens relations further.

At the same time Germany is "rational" about British security issues (primary fleet size). This leads to NO British French or British Russian understanding in colonial matters.

So basically you get the "Anglo-German-Austrian" Triple-Alliance (with minor partners Japan, Italy and the OE) versus the American/French/Russian "Entente".

Based on OTLs WWI the Triple Alliance will win in Europe. The Land War in the Americas might turn to either side. Depending on how much the US will arm and how fast the British can reinforce Canada.

In theory Germany can defeat France (in this scenario I assume Britain puts pressure on Belgium to allow the Germans pass their land) within a few months and then turn its almost unlimited attention to the Russians.

The Brits can focus on colonial campaigns vs the Entente and Canada.

Assuem France is knocked out within 3 months and Russia within a year. If the US manages to occupy Canada it might get a good negotiated peace, If the Alliance troops hold out until Russia as (mostly) gone it will be able to put pressure on the US from several directions (maybe even "zimmerman" Mexico to join the experience ;))

Comonial warfare might include the Phillipines (Japan + UK).

IF the US make good progress might the Canadians cut ties with Britain and get a separate peace with the US (Independence but alliance with the US?).
 
Just thought of something. Forty-Niners went everywhere. California, Colorado, Nevada, Alaska, the Yukon, Australia, Japan... Maybe some or their heirs are still around and try sneaking into the disputed area between the British and Venzualans?
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Bolger Herwig called his study of German military

There could be reasons for an American-German conflict, given how the Germans acted in Samoa, attempting to gain the Phillipines (which was given up quickly), the marriage of German businessmen to Haitians (shocking at those themes for Americans, as you can imagine), the scouting out by Germans of a Venezuelan island to be used as a naval base (they found it would be awful), the attempts to support Colombia against the Americans and Panama(Apparently. Not that it would matter with getting Panama back to Colombia, as it required the Americans to keep the area Colombian in the past).

Planning against the U.S. The Politics of Frustration for a reason; geography alone dooms any German attempt at gaining a political end via military means in the Western Hemisphere... The simple realities of great power rivalries in Europe meant that none of the European powers could afford to deploy substantial military power in the Western Hemisphere for any length of time, as the French and Spanish learned as late as the 1860s in Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and off Chile and Peru.

The Germans could not hold their colonies in Africa and the Pacific in 1914; there was no way the could sustain any more significant levels of military strength in the Western Hemisphere in the late Nineteenth Century, either.

Best,

Best,
 
Anglo german

So he could have at least some chance the United States should have the political will and material means to project power, credible,:cool: way across the Atlantic.
Almost impossible without a deep change in the mindset of the American ruling class; very unlikely unless they felt threatened the nation or its 'vital interests'.

Should feel threatened by an alliance of European powers (Anglo-German?) And will need to enter the system of European alliances for safety.
Getting involved in the affairs and European issues, also the will to demand that their opinions are respected and taken into account their interests to the point of going to war to defend their interests (colonial, perhaps in the Caribbean or the Pacific, or perhaps by being a participant '' colonial division of Africa '').

In France in 1880 was just recovering from the collapse of the second 'Empire' Napoleonic and the Commune (after its defeat in the Franco-Prussian War), not to mention the economic impact of the War reparations paid by France in record time.

Prussia is concentrated on consolidating the German national unity, in addition to developing its industrial base.
 
Planning against the U.S. The Politics of Frustration for a reason; geography alone dooms any German attempt at gaining a political end via military means in the Western Hemisphere... The simple realities of great power rivalries in Europe meant that none of the European powers could afford to deploy substantial military power in the Western Hemisphere for any length of time, as the French and Spanish learned as late as the 1860s in Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and off Chile and Peru.

The Germans could not hold their colonies in Africa and the Pacific in 1914; there was no way the could sustain any more significant levels of military strength in the Western Hemisphere in the late Nineteenth Century, either.

Best,

Best,
Still, it is like a mother's day present. It's the thought that counts.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Yeah but with the French to the west, and the

Still, it is like a mother's day present. It's the thought that counts.

Russians to the east, and various potential allies and enemies to the south, it's not like German expansionists didn't have plenty on their plates...

Even the most ambitious were focused on eastern and Southern Europe, with a fringe element considering Southwest Asia and/or Central Asia as within the German "sphere"... The Berlin to Baghdad railway was one thing; Berlin to Baltimore was another..

And the British and German alliance idea never seems like it would happen, given Britain's interest has been to prevent a Continental hegemony since the 1700s.

Best,
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Holger Herwig called his Planning against the U.S. The Politics of Frustration for a reason;

Great book, by the way, along with his "Luxury Fleet". I loved the map showing the German fleet stop at Bar Harbor, where my Dad lives.


geography alone dooms any German attempt at gaining a political end via military means in the Western Hemisphere...

dooms any attempt that is opposed by power(s) of any size. Germany can and did get minor "satisfaction" or recompense for damages expedited through gunboat diplomacy in the western hemisphere.


The simple realities of great power rivalries in Europe meant that none of the European powers could afford to deploy substantial military power in the Western Hemisphere for any length of time

Where does the south (Samoa) and southwest Pacific (Philippines) fit into this hemispheric scheme though. It's as remote from the USA as from Germany.

Herwig illustrates your point about the effect of great power rivalries in Europe well. The German's only could contemplate overseas warfare during a period (roughly 1894-1904) when it's European neighbors were comparatively low-threat in Europe, and themselves focused outside of Europe. When tension returned to Europe, Germany stopped revising the America warplans.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
If the Americans were a little brighter and really saw through the implications of the Anglo-Japanese treaty- that the Japanese wanted protection not only from the Russians but also wanted to drive the Americans out of the Philippines, then a Franco-Russian-American alliance against Britain-Japan and Germany if she joined the fight is possible

Up until the Anglo-American reconciliation after the Spanish War and Guyana crises made the British accept American hegemony in the Western Hemisphere, the traditional allies of America were the French and, especially, the Russians
 
Top