AHC: Bio Weapons replace Nuclear Weapons

How can we get a world where there are either no or small numbers of nuclear weapons, but large and developed bio weapons are employed by countries as the main WMD? I put this in After 1900 but you can use a POD pre-1900.
 
The easiest POD is mass use of Anthrax in Operation Vegetarian, especially as an area denial weapon against a distant foe.

In tropical areas, I could see development of nastier strains of certain diseases like malaria used, and I could see regimes like North Korea (madman) or Israel/Taiwan (backed into a corner) build up weaponized rinderpest or hoof and mouth disease as a Pale Horse of the Apocalypse threat. In turn, the big powers all have resistant smallpox and other lovelies.

Also, have Japan surrender later (calling the US bluff re: more atomic bombs) only giving in when an American-introduced rice blight ravages their crops.
 
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There are a number of problems with bioweapons, as opposed to blast weapons (of which nukes are just bigger and better). Bioweapons take time to work, they are difficult to use/get them to where they need to be. There is always the risk of them spreading to affect your troops or civilian population. Realistically speaking it would be the mid-1950s before you could get bacterial agents that were useful - with bacteria you would want to make them resistant to usual antibiotics, of course that means you need to have something that works. Immunizations vary in effectiveness depending on disease, and even if effective need to be repeated in most cases.

Nowadays gene manipulation allows you to have a shot are manipulating bacteria, rickettsia, and viruses for weaponization. The risks remain, and as HIV (and the common cold) show, producing effective vaccines or treatments can be quite challenging. Making "superbugs" of any of the infectious agents listed is very risky as if they are difficult for you enemy to control, expect the same for you if they get loose.

Vegetarian was a strategic weapon that was designed to "poison" farmland, the number of actual anthrax cases in humans you would have seen was pretty low. Unit 731 basically worked on finding the most effective EXISTING strains of diseases, and ways to disperse them. Their efforts were successful against the civilian population where used in China with crowding, poor sanitation etc. It is not clear they had much direct effect on any military units, though of course an epidemic is disruptive.

If you are using bioweapons against a civilian population (which is fixed and not mobile like a military unit), especially at some distance from your own territory, these things can be a strategic weapon. Against military targets they are less effective. Measures against epidemic disease such as surveillance, quarantine, etc are easier to do in a military unit than in a civilian population.
 
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