AHC: Better prepared Imperial Russia in WW1

This AHC has been prompted by a couple of threads in recent months, particularly this one and, also re reading my copy of the Guns of August.

With a POD after 1912, what changes can Imperial Russia make to improve their performance in WW1, presuming that WW 1 starts as per otl?

One idea that I have been toying with is for the Army to conduct their equivalent of the Louisiana Maneuvers, perhaps prompted by the Balkan War or to show their French allies the extent of their military progress. My suspicion is that things will go haywire as they did during the opening stages of WW 1 and, this will allow some kinks to be ironed out.

One that jumps out is the introduction of an Army group command, which may have reduced the likelihood of the Battle of Tannenberg unfolding as it did. This is before we consider the potential improvements in the General Staff and, in the broader economy. Not declaring prohibition and cutting off a third of state revenue at the outbreak of the war, might be a good start as well.

Over to your...
 
Maybe wait until they're fully mobilized for starters. And for God's sake, reform their radio communications. They were literally telling the enemy what they were doing allowing them to formulate countermeasures.
 
I think 1912 is too late. I'll give you 1906, whereby they learn some lessons after the Russo-Japanese War and perhaps made better reforms after Bloody Sunday. But they had so many points of ineptness that I think it would take more than 2 years to make a meaningful difference.
 
Starting in 1912 is early enough to turn any of the powers, even Austria, into something almost unstoppable. Just look at the British army of 1916 compared to 1914

A power has to be subtle, less their enemies make corrections. The Russians could solve all their supply problems by buying weapons and raw materials abroad rather than make them at home. Best estimate is that they were overpaying for supplies to the tune of 80 million rubles The Germans should notice this and react so we need little things that can make a big difference.

Radios are mentioned. Helpful and all powers were short on radios but the Russians need recon more than better radios. Zhilinsky had 11 divisions completely out of place in the north unable to participate in the battle. He also didn't pick up the 8th army's move. If Rennenkampf had pushed through the cavalry screen, the 8th army is likely destroyed. A force of 300 aircraft would do.

Alternately, we can tweak their strategy and make huge gains. In 1912, the French General Staff ran a war game where they concluded that in the event of an Austro-Serbian war, the best time to intervene would be after the Austrians had committed B-staffel to the Serbian front. This would prevent its arrival in Galicia. Couple this with adopting Alexseev's southern strategy.
This would shift 17 divisions from the Prussian campaign to the Austrian front. There's little hope for Conrad and his band at this point. Vienna and Silesia are in serious danger and the Germans are sending two armies instead of two corps East.

The Germans will also send 8th Army south. It will cross awful terrain over horrid roads and run smack into the Russian fortresses. By waiting for the German attack, the Russians would buy about two weeks to complete their mobilization in the north and be able to use their own secure civilian telephone system. The Russians send them back with heavy losses as happened in all of 8th Army's efforts to attack Russia in 1914 OTL

The above would have the Russians avoid Tannenberg and the Masurian lakes and about 400,000 casualties. The Austrians are going to have little left and I would doubt the Germans have enough to deal with the Russians in the East and the French in the West.

Ultimately, WWI is a war for allies. How well you do on the battlefield determines the likelihood of winning allies. The Ottomans, Italians, Bulgarians and Romanians really want to know who's going to win before they join. Avoiding the East Prussian campaign offers so many advantages that they will sit up and notice
 
Alternately, if you want to build up the Russian army between 1912 and 1914

They need to reduce the size of their army and spend more on weapons. The army was just too big to move. Instead of having so many men, they should have increased the artillery in the units they had. The large manpower would have been used as replacements for the casualties they suffered

The shell reserve should have been doubled. They kicked around the idea. It would have cost about 45,000,000 rubles for the 75's

Increased the number of NCO's. Russia had trained them they just needed better pay.

They were short about 4,000 locomotives and 80,000 railway cars. That would have cut four days off the mobilization

Fewer cavalry would also help. Aircraft for recon, cavalry for raiding. Horses clogged up the supply lines

Give me until morning and I'll dig up a bunch more
 
I would say any POD prior to 1900 is a bit out of luck. The rot was in. This isn't Austria or England, this is Russia - the graveyard of ministers with bright ideas. There were certainly enough goods ideas around and eager government officials to implement them, but the whole system was so obscurantist that it is almost preferable to believe conspiracy theories of reactionaries stopping progress via cabals and assassinations than to admit it was that incompetent. You need to get Sergei Witte in earlier, and you need to give him Rasputin like powers of persuasion over Nicholas II and even then I'd bet against Russia having a clue.
 
I would say any POD prior to 1900 is a bit out of luck. The rot was in. This isn't Austria or England, this is Russia - the graveyard of ministers with bright ideas. There were certainly enough goods ideas around and eager government officials to implement them, but the whole system was so obscurantist that it is almost preferable to believe conspiracy theories of reactionaries stopping progress via cabals and assassinations than to admit it was that incompetent. You need to get Sergei Witte in earlier, and you need to give him Rasputin like powers of persuasion over Nicholas II and even then I'd bet against Russia having a clue.

And yet Conrad would describe the reforms after 1905 as being "so extensive and so widespread as to be scarcely imaginable in any other country"

Russia overhauls everything- the army, the navy, land tenure, labor laws, domestic government, state industries, railroad administration even the Orthodox Church and religious life in the country. There is little doubt that Russia's might is growing rapidly after 1908 and that really accelerates after 1910

Austria is the doomed nation that couldn't reform. Stuck in a bizarre relationship between the German speakers and Magyar nobility with the masses given short shift A government that pretended to still be a great power and sent its army off with bronze guns
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trajen777

Banned
I think it is a very difficult task because :
1. Russia industrialization could not have progressed at a faster rate. It was very rapid and i dont see how it could have been faster
2. Russian leadership from the top down would have had to change so drastically as to not be Russia. The call up of troops was so widely ignored (or exempted) as to make for insane inefficiency
3. Funds -- you either industrialize or spend on military --- Russia worked on industrialization first (correct) and build military 2nd (to be completed by 1917 / 18). The war came to fast for them.
The best thing they could do is NOT GET INTO THE WAR.
 

BooNZ

Banned
The best thing they could do is NOT GET INTO THE WAR.
The key weaknesses of the Russian military resulted from societal and systemic problems, being low literacy and widespread and endemic corruption. The outcome to this was suboptimal decision making at a strategic and tactical level being almost routine. This not only impacted on Russian military performance, but also the resilience of the Russian economy and industry and its ability to support the war effectively.

There were no quick fixes - Russian mid-long term military performance in 1917-1918 would have been no better than 1914. However, Imperial Russia had projected an almost 100% participation in childhood education by 1917-18, which would have really started to pay dividends from the 1930s...
 

CaliGuy

Banned
There were no quick fixes - Russian mid-long term military performance in 1917-1918 would have been no better than 1914.

Couldn't more railroads have helped with the food and supply issues in Russian cities during the war, though?

However, Imperial Russia had projected an almost 100% participation in childhood education by 1917-18, which would have really started to pay dividends from the 1930s...

So, if Russia loses WWI and Germany has a compromise peace in the West, Russia would be ready for a rematch around 1940?
 

BooNZ

Banned
Couldn't more railroads have helped with the food and supply issues in Russian cities during the war, though?
That would have been a case of re-arranging deckchairs - the frailty of the Russian rail network was as much a deficiency in skilled labour as material infrastructure. The Russian rail network had been a consistent priority and feature of Russian industrial/ economic development for decades.

So, if Russia loses WWI and Germany has a compromise peace in the West, Russia would be ready for a rematch around 1940?
I think Russian could have avoided war altogether, but yes, by 1940 I think Russia would have closed the gap in skilled manpower with Germany and A-H, while surpassing Italy, Spain and the Balkan minors. Even with its tradition of inept leadership, a Russia that avoids war results in an epic wank.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
That would have been a case of re-arranging deckchairs - the frailty of the Russian rail network was as much a deficiency in skilled labour as material infrastructure. The Russian rail network had been a consistent priority and feature of Russian industrial/ economic development for decades.

Yes, but my point here is that even a delay of war of a few years would give Russia more railroads and thus more of a chance to get food and supplies into its large cities. However, you don't think that several years would have made that much of a difference in regards to this, correct?

I think Russian could have avoided war altogether, but yes, by 1940 I think Russia would have closed the gap in skilled manpower with Germany and A-H, while surpassing Italy, Spain and the Balkan minors. Even with its tradition of inept leadership, a Russia that avoids war results in an epic wank.

Agreed,

However, would this still be true if, after losing WWI, Russia lost Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic states?
 

BooNZ

Banned
Yes, but my point here is that even a delay of war of a few years would give Russia more railroads and thus more of a chance to get food and supplies into its large cities. However, you don't think that several years would have made that much of a difference in regards to this, correct?
OTL Railway construction had actually been the engine room for Russian industrial development for decades i.e. the majority of Russian industial capacity was used to extend railway capacity. A few extra years may have helped some, but I suspect under German management the same/ existing Russian railway network would have performed miracles.

Agreed,

However, would this still be true if, after losing WWI, Russia lost Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic states?
The loss of the Ukraine would have castrated Imperial Russia, but keeping the Ukraine outside the Russian orbit would have likely been an ongoing struggle for Germany/ A-H.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
OTL Railway construction had actually been the engine room for Russian industrial development for decades i.e. the majority of Russian industial capacity was used to extend railway capacity. A few extra years may have helped some, but I suspect under German management the same/ existing Russian railway network would have performed miracles.

OK.

Also, do you think that a few extra years would have been enough to prevent Russia from descending into revolution if WWI would have broken out (but several years later than in our TL)?

The loss of the Ukraine would have castrated Imperial Russia, but keeping the Ukraine outside the Russian orbit would have likely been an ongoing struggle for Germany/ A-H.

Would it have been too much of a challenge for Germany and Austria-Hungary once Ukraine would have begun rapidly industrializing, though? After all, wouldn't an industrialized Ukraine plus Germany and Austria-Hungary be more than enough to handle Russia?
 
Couldn't more railroads have helped with the food and supply issues in Russian cities during the war, though?



So, if Russia loses WWI and Germany has a compromise peace in the West, Russia would be ready for a rematch around 1940?

Yes they could have. Russia was short about 4,000 locomotives and 80,000 railway cars for their mobilization plan. The food supply situation is caused mostly from the rampant inflation that starts to grip Russia in late 1916. The peasants have the grain but nothing to buy so they won't sell

As for quick fixes, they abound. Russia's military is not the incompetent failure that is being depicted and the failures are more of the French- and by 1915 a lot of France's problems will go away

The three year law is dead and the French will be moving to a defensive strategy with that change (Joffre will be replaced as well) The increased use of the reserves, which would save France larges sums better spent elsewhere, means a three day lag in the French mobilization. No idiotic offensive possible

Russia could also have adopted Alexseev's southern strategy. Ignore East Prussia, crush the Austrians and sweep into Silesia. Its the strategy they use in WWII to great effect. The horrid terrrain of East Prussia and the need for a rapid attack doomed those efforts. A Southern Strategy would have spared the Russians at least 400,000 casualties and made the German effort in the West hopeless

The change in Romanian regimes would also be a massive "quick fix". Russia deployed six divisions to watch their Romanian frontie. If Romnia flips, than not only are those six freed but Austria must send six of her own. Its a twelve division swing or a fourth of Austria's army

The Russia's would also have done wonders if they had imported more weapons Russia paid very high prices for domestic goods- three times the world price for iron and steel. It was costing them about 80 million rubles a year. More than enough to transform the Russian army
 
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