AHC: Better management of the Italian armistice in 1943

The Italian armistice in WW2 was an appalling sequence of disasters, that lead in a couple of days to the disgregation of the Italian armed forces, the capture of a large chunk of them by the Germans and the fall in German hands of most of the Italian Peninsula, leading to a long and bloodt campaign to liberate it (and civil war between pro-German RSI troops and pro-allied Italian Partigiani).

The Italian army was underequipped and the Germans already controlled many ey points in Italy, but I think they were still outnumbered and would be rather easy to cut off from their supply lines, especially if the Italians manage to coordinate with the Allies at least a bit. It is really absurd that there was no plan for a defence of Italy and the army was left to its own devices, without coherent orders, while the King escaoed to Brindisi with the government...


Could this be avoided by a better management and preparations in the weeks just before the armistice? What would be the consequences? Could the war in the European theatre be shortened, without the impasse on the Gothic line?

Internal consequences for Italy? Possibly less destructions, better international standing, a lowered influence for the Communist partisans and an increased confidence in the Army and King, possibly leading to a continuation of the monarchy?

The problem is that we have to work with the utter incompetence of people like Badoglio...
 
The fault lies with the abysmal leadership of the Italians in general. Better leadership should have allowed everything south of Rome to be taken by the Allies much sooner. The Germans would still likely hold northern Italy, but we can assume the Allies reach the Gothic Line by December 1943 instead of August 1944. So we've speeded things up by 9 months or so.

This would present some different opportunities in regards to Overlord. Allies will probably a launch an attack in northern Italy several weeks prior to Overlord. There will likely be a different Dragoon.

Without the approach of fall and winter weather, the Allies likely will break out of the mountains by August 1944 and quickly approach the Alps and Ljublana Gap. This provides the Western Allies an opportunity to enter northern Yugoslavia and Hungary just as the Red Army reaches there. This might allow a more successful Hungary defection to the Allies and Hungary itself to be divided into two occupation zones - one for the Western Allies west of the Danube, and one for the Red Army east of it. It would also make Austria a Western Allied only zone. So we'll see a different political situation in Central Europe.

As for internal changes in Italy, I don't know if this improves things. One reason the Communists were so popular was that the fascist bureaucrats (cops, judges, whatever) were still in place and still treated dissidents like crap. So the anti-Mussolini people were still not in a good position. I think for anything to change, the king needed to resign and a thorough housecleaning done in the Italian government, which this POD does not accomplish.

However, it is possible that maybe the monarchy might survive if enough votes in Tuscany, Umbria, and Ancona switch because of the change in initial front lines, and the earlier establishment of control in northern Italy. If this somehow leads King Victor to abdicate sooner, then the changes are very good the monarchy will survive.
 
... but we can assume the Allies reach the Gothic Line by December 1943 instead of August 1944. So we've speeded things up by 9 months or so.

....

This can also aggravate a problem for the Allies. That is more cargo ships must be diverted to sending food and coal to Italy. there are claims that keeping the south Italian population fed and with coal though the winters of 1944 & 45 turned out to be a unexpected and substantial burden. Since those are not accompanied by sources or numbers I cant calculate the actual cost, but it could be a larger problem with a faster Allied advance.
 
I think that the monarchy will likely survive in this scenario: the referendum was a rather close run thing IOTL and the monarchy generally won in areas that had been more stable in 43-45, so witout Anzio and Cassino, with a King that stays in Rome or comes back quickly there I think the monarchy will win (assuming that Vittorio Emanuele abdicates, obviously).

The communists earned much of their credibility in northern Italy due to their partisan activities (besides the reasons that you have exposed) so with a shorter war and a more organized italian co-belligerant army they will maybe play a lesser role, but they will still be a factor in post war Italian politics.

Possibly this slightly wanked co-belligerant Italy will get to keep something more on the eastern border, but probably nothing significant apart from Trieste: the expulsion of Italians from Istria and Dalmatia will likely still happen.

On the food situation you may have a point, but I don't think it would really be impossible to cope with: shortening the war in Europe by some months and possibly denying Soviet overlordship over Hungary and Czechoslovakia must be worth it!

How to do this however? It is almost unbelievable that no real plans were made for this contingency, but, alas, the Italian leadership really was utterly despicable at the time.
 
Could this be avoided by a better management and preparations in the weeks just before the armistice? What would be the consequences? Could the war in the European theatre be shortened, without the impasse on the Gothic line?


Possibly. There are many consequences, not all of them for Italy. If the Italian capitulation is better managed by them and the Allies are more daring... the Allies could gain a strong foothold in the Balkans rather easily.

For instance if Allies had been better prepared and the Italians less feckless, the Allies might have gained control of some or all of the Dodecanese islands. From there, the Cyclades, Chios, and Lesbos are all exposed and literally isolated, setting up a potential Allied thrust toward Bulgaria which the Germans must defend against, while also defending mainland Greece. Corfu is another possibility, threatening Greece and Albania from the west. The Germans either have to reinforce heavily or withdraw.

Also, if the initial Allied rush into mainland Italy reaches the Gothic Line at the edge of the Po Valley in 1943, then the Allies might break through into the Po Valley in early 1944, possibly obviating the DRAGOON landings in Southern France, or bringing them forward to June 1944. That has knock-ons for OVERLORD - if the Allies are already moving into southern France at the time of COBRA, even Hitler won't order the Mortain-Avranches counterattack, there will be no Falaise Pocket, and the Allied rush across France and Belgium may not go as far.
 
A quicker capitulation would have eliminated the need to fight the length of the Italian Penninsula, leaving most Italian farms intact, ergo less need to import food.
Even access to one port, well up the west coast would have vastly reduced damage to Italian infrastructure: Anzio or Livorno?
Quicker Allied occupation of one aitalian port would have isolated the few German soldiers in Southern Italy.
 
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