or more likely, no one gets to 270 and the house votes trump in if he's at 30% of the votes or so
honestly though, I doubt kasich would win any states, maybe not even ohio tbh, the electorate is polarized enough I have trouble seeing him going above 5-10%
There are three real possibilities. One is that Kasich bleeds votes away from Hillary and Trump at about the same clip and Trump wins since Kasich didn’t take enough votes to claim any states (or claimed his home state of Ohio and maybe Utah, which balked at voting for Trump at first but did anyway and Trump still wins.) If Trump claims Ohio and Utah, however, it will take a mere 13 faithless electors to push this to the House, where Trump probably won’t win.
The next possibility is that Trump splits the Republicans, setting up a 1912-style 3-way race. Kasich wins enough votes across the board to flip the election to Hillary.
The final possibility is what I proposed - Kasich flips votes on both sides and performs quite well, winning enough EVs to send it to the House. I really don’t think Trump wins if it goes to the House.