AHC: Berlin-Addis Ababa-Tokyo Axis

As OurSacredWar can tell y'all, this happens in my non-fascist Pan-African/Ethiopia wins the Second Italo-Ethiopian War TL. Basically the maximum aid that the Liberian government, African Americans and UNIA factions in British colonies gives amounts to:

  • A Liberian based arms manufacturer under the umbrella of UNIA's Negro Factories Corporation establishing a domestic rifle industry in Ethiopia in 1930 producing slightly-inferior copes of the Krag rifle, the Gehwehr 98 and the Browning Automatic Rifles, all chambered in 7.92x57mm Mauser for logistic reasons and modified slightly for African conditions. This company is established in response to Liberia's mounting campaign against raiding interior tribes.
  • UNIA's paramilitary units, the Universal African Legions gain experience fighting the interior tribes in Liberia, and about 4000 of them, supplemented by 15,000 UNIA volunteers from other countries in the African diaspora end up joining the Ethiopians. However, the advantage of these volunteers is a bit overstated, with the exception a handful of former colonial troops & American Buffalo Soldiers none of them except the African Legions has any military experience. And the African Legions in my TL only have practical experience in fighting native peoples with spears, swords and pre-WWI rifles and muskets.
  • A railroad company under the Negro Factories corporation expanding Ethiopia's existing ITOL railroad to Jimma by 1934.
  • A decent sized (~30,000) group of technically trained "Back to Africa" Caribbean Blacks and African Americans who start up cottage industries and small factories in Ethiopia.
Anything more than that might be excessive.

As said by others, there is the question of money, all that cost and Abyssinia was not really rich in any way and the only one that can give loan are the Anglo-French, unfortunely the economic and political dealing of the British, French and Italians with the Abyssinian were regulated by a series of treaty and do this will create a diplomatic fuss.
Plus, well i said, the presence of foreign black people trying to help the local modernize will not really win many fans as they poaching in their economic interest...and i don't even talk about the paramilitary units.
Not considering the social changes that all that will cause...in a nation famous for resolving this with violence, really Abyssinia was more 'A Game of Throne' Land than a modern nation, Selassiè tried very hard to modernize during his time but not only there are limit at one can achieve in a limited period but also what the system can take and a bunch of foreigner (because the UNIA member will be seen as foreigner more or less like an italian or a British) telling them what to do will really not help
 
Ethiopia also has Jews IIRC. Maybe the natives accuse the jews of collaborating with Italy, whether or not they actually are. Would Hitler be able to get over his dislike of blacks if it was framed as jew-vs-gentile conflict? I'm sure Goebbels would love to use this for propaganda, as it makes their narrative look universally true, across cultures and continents.
During OTL's Italian occupation of Ethiopia, the Italians went out of their way to integrate the Ethiopian Jews - if we see a Jewish Ethiopian-Eritrean formation with Italy, that could work.
 
That wasn't for lack of effort on the part of the monarchs' parts, Tewodros II, Yohannes IV, Menelik II, Zewditu and Haile Selassie all banned the slave trade, and *meant it* (there's this revisionist line of argument that originated from fascist historians that these were token laws, but that's crap.) Menelik was particularly against it, punishing slave traders with amputations and execution.

Factually incorrect, they were all French-built meter-gauge track made by the same company.

That's because that's the model Ethiopian intellectuals and modernizers saw as the most suited for their country. Heruy Welde Sellase, theForeign Minister of Haile Selassie said, after his visit to Japan, comparing the two counries:

...where do you get that conclusion from? That characterization is quite unorthodox, and does not represent the mainstream view at all. It also to be quite honest doesn't make much sense, as one does not run a country as fractious (by your own admission) as Imperial Ethiopia for 58 years and suppress literally dozens of rebellions without being a canny political operator.

Firstly on the slavery issues, yes they had all agreed to ban slavery, but the fact was that there were still millions of slaves and indentured servants by the 1930's. Yes the Emperors had previously made attempts to abolish it, but they always made exceptions and allowed for caveats eg. conceding that POW's to still be slaves, resulting in inter-tribal slave conflicts and continued border raids.

My point about slavery is to highlight the position the country was in. It wasn't industrialized and segments of the elite were resistant to that fact changing. Rebellion was common and required a strong authority to bring the rebelling land lords into line.

I want to make one point clear, I don't think Ethiopia is beyond any modernization attempts, but 1933 (when Hitler came to power) is too late. Japan took decades and had a better starting position with a central authority that was recognized across the country, there was a wealthy merchant class, the country was easily connected by sea (making it easy to spread modernization efforts) the ex-Samurai administrators were experienced and could transition into power more easily and there was higher degrees of literacy across the Home Islands. Ethiopia is large and central authority was tenuous at best, illiteracy was rampant (the current literacy rate only just matches Meiji Japan), much of the country is rural and disconnected by the distance and terrain. Not insurmountable, but there are stark differences that put the country at a disadvantage.

Remember the point of this thread is to ask if Ethiopia could be a modernized partner to the Axis. Hitler came to power in 1933 but would still take a a few years to really entrench himself and would drag Europe to war by 1939. That gives Nazi Germany (And I cannot stress the NAZI part enough) only six years at most to fix these deeply entrenched issues to a point where people are saying they could invade or sponsor rebellions in the other Colonial Power's backyards. That simply isn't going to happen, Germany's commitment to Ethiopia would be superficial at best as they are crash re-arming and can't spare much and you know... Hitler was super racist.

Concession on the rail gauge, it appears you were right not sure why I thought there were Italian rail gauges in play. Concede that point.

Alright idiot might be strong, but I stick with the idea he was deluded. He was charismatic man, with a good understanding of politics with a genuine, but ultimately superficial concern for his people. He was an autocrat that kept trying to centralize power upon himself and at best seemed to see himself as the only person with vision to lift the country. I think this was a handicap that consistently caused problems later in his reign as he became out of touch with the country that began to reject his dated views on leadership. I know a lot of people have a lot of respect for the man but I feel it's misplaced considering how his reign panned out.

Again, I don't think Ethiopia could never modernize, but there were so many endemic problems that required a lot more time and money to help solve and I feel people are simply white-washing over that fact. The country was an incredibly complex balancing act of competing interests and tribal/racial divisions that ultimately held it back and require an earlier POD to help bring it up to speed. Also, come on, Hitler is the LAST person in history that is going to help solve that.
 
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Ethiopia also has Jews IIRC. Maybe the natives accuse the jews of collaborating with Italy, whether or not they actually are. Would Hitler be able to get over his dislike of blacks if it was framed as jew-vs-gentile conflict? I'm sure Goebbels would love to use this for propaganda, as it makes their narrative look universally true, across cultures and continents.

There was a population referred to as "Beta Israel" which was a tens of thousands strong(?). I mean maybe that could be the pretext for fucking with Mussolini if relations have soured but again, that's assuming Hitler would want to actually and genuinely support Ethiopia with anything beyond a few outdated rifles. It's hard to imagine Hitler getting over his hatred of blacks, his racial ideology drove every major action he took, from the the holocaust to the invasion of the USSR.

I feel Germany's acceptance of Japan as a partner was driven by mutual interests against the USSR and the Western Powers and should be seen as an exception rather than evidence of flexible thinking on Hitler's part. Even still, the relations were rocky at best. Ethiopia has little to offer Germany as a strategic partner beyond spiting Italy in a hypothetical breakdown of relations.
 
Firstly on the slavery issues, yes they had all agreed to ban slavery, but the fact was that there were still millions of slaves and indentured servants by the 1930's. Yes the Emperors had previously made attempts to abolish it, but they always made exceptions and allowed for caveats eg. conceding that POW's to still be slaves, resulting in inter-tribal slave conflicts and continued border raids.

My point about slavery is to highlight the position the country was in. It wasn't industrialized and segments of the elite were resistant to that fact changing. Rebellion was common and required a strong authority to bring the rebelling land lords into line.

That's fair.

I want to make one point clear, I don't think Ethiopia is beyond any modernization attempts, but 1933 (when Hitler came to power) is too late. Japan took decades and had a better starting position with a central authority that was recognized across the country, there was a wealthy merchant class, the country was easily connected by sea (making it easy to spread modernization efforts) the ex-Samurai administrators were experienced and could transition into power more easily and there was higher degrees of literacy across the Home Islands. Ethiopia is large and central authority was tenuous at best, illiteracy was rampant (the current literacy rate only just matches Meiji Japan), much of the country is rural and disconnected by the distance and terrain. Not insurmountable, but there are stark differences that put the country at a disadvantage.

Remember the point of this thread is to ask if Ethiopia could be a modernized partner to the Axis. Hitler came to power in 1933 but would still take a a few years to really entrench himself and would drag Europe to war by 1939. That gives Nazi Germany (And I cannot stress the NAZI part enough) only six years at most to fix these deeply entrenched issues to a point where people are saying they could invade or sponsor rebellions in the other Colonial Power's backyards. That simply isn't going to happen, Germany's commitment to Ethiopia would be superficial at best as they are crash re-arming and can't spare much and you know... Hitler was super racist.

That's fair too, notice I said nothing about the plausibility of Nazis supporting Ethiopia (I agree, it ain't very) and I think a 1933 PoD is far too late as well. I was just addressing your other points.


Alright idiot might be strong, but I stick with the idea he was deluded. He was charismatic man, with a good understanding of politics with a genuine, but ultimately superficial concern for his people. He was an autocrat that kept trying to centralize power upon himself and at best seemed to see himself as the only person with vision to lift the country. I think this was a handicap that consistently caused problems later in his reign as he became out of touch with the country that began to reject his dated views on leadership. I know a lot of people have a lot of respect for the man but I feel it's misplaced considering how his reign panned out.
I think you're reading Haile Sellasie's personality at the end of his life as the way he behaved throughout his whole life. In his youth, the Emperor was a canny political operator, adept at navigating noble schemes and faction politics, committed to modernizing his country, allowing his people a broader voice in government through the slow introduction of democratic elements (although this was complicated by his having to deal with nobles, his people's lack of education and the Italian War interrupting these efforts.) His centralizing of power to himself was mostly an attempt to deal with fractious nobles. You can't go straight from warring feudal nobles to democratic modern country, there probably has to be some period of central autocracy in between just to stabilize and force a degree of national consciousness into the Empire. The problem is that HS lived too long, he ossified; became set in his ways, and his many genuine heroic accomplishments and achievements grew in him a hubris that left him convinced that he could do no wrong. He was so concerned with establishing a strong central government, modernizing the country, fighting raiders, fascists and his own factious nobles that it left him unable to deal with the events that lead to the Derg. Even with all that said, I don't think it's fair to judge the man based on the end results of his reign, when the junta that replaced him was worse and more incompetent that he could ever be.
 
I think you're reading Haile Sellasie's personality at the end of his life as the way he behaved throughout his whole life. In his youth, the Emperor was a canny political operator, adept at navigating noble schemes and faction politics, committed to modernizing his country, allowing his people a broader voice in government through the slow introduction of democratic elements (although this was complicated by his having to deal with nobles, his people's lack of education and the Italian War interrupting these efforts.) His centralizing of power to himself was mostly an attempt to deal with fractious nobles. You can't go straight from warring feudal nobles to democratic modern country, there probably has to be some period of central autocracy in between just to stabilize and force a degree of national consciousness into the Empire. The problem is that HS lived too long, he ossified; became set in his ways, and his many genuine heroic accomplishments and achievements grew in him a hubris that left him convinced that he could do no wrong. He was so concerned with establishing a strong central government, modernizing the country, fighting raiders, fascists and his own factious nobles that it left him unable to deal with the events that lead to the Derg. Even with all that said, I don't think it's fair to judge the man based on the end results of his reign, when the junta that replaced him was worse and more incompetent that he could ever be.
You hit it right on the nose. Bahru Zewde's Haile Selassie: From Progressive to Reactionary notes this as well.
 
There was a population referred to as "Beta Israel" which was a tens of thousands strong(?). I mean maybe that could be the pretext for fucking with Mussolini if relations have soured but again, that's assuming Hitler would want to actually and genuinely support Ethiopia with anything beyond a few outdated rifles. It's hard to imagine Hitler getting over his hatred of blacks, his racial ideology drove every major action he took, from the the holocaust to the invasion of the USSR.

I feel Germany's acceptance of Japan as a partner was driven by mutual interests against the USSR and the Western Powers and should be seen as an exception rather than evidence of flexible thinking on Hitler's part. Even still, the relations were rocky at best. Ethiopia has little to offer Germany as a strategic partner beyond spiting Italy in a hypothetical breakdown of relations.
Sure it'd leave a bad taste in Hitler's mouth, but what's easier for the German people to swallow? IOTL they worked with even the 'judeo-bolsheviks' to attack Poland, this doesn't seem to far off.
Suppose they see it as "Domino Theory", and this is the first domino in starting insurrection all over the colonized world. What does Germany have to lose by giving the first domino a shove? Anti-colonialism only hurts the Allies, and this could be a very effective propaganda tool. Perhaps they could have a more internationalist movement, like what the soviets did. Sort of a "Gentiles of the world, unite!" type thing.

Blacks and Nazis can totally work together if the agreed upon goal is racial separation and pride, as well as being anti-jewish.
(see George Lincoln Rockwell and the Nation of Islam working together in the early 60s)

Edit: Post made it sound like I'm a Nazi apologist. I'm absolutely not
 
Sure it'd leave a bad taste in Hitler's mouth, but what's easier for the German people to swallow? IOTL they worked with even the 'judeo-bolsheviks' to attack Poland, this doesn't seem to far off.
Suppose they see it as "Domino Theory", and this is the first domino in starting insurrection all over the colonized world. What does Germany have to lose by giving the first domino a shove? Anti-colonialism only hurts the Allies, and this could be a very effective propaganda tool. Perhaps they could have a more internationalist movement, like what the soviets did. Sort of a "Gentiles of the world, unite!" type thing.

Blacks and Nazis can totally work together if the agreed upon goal is racial separation and pride, as well as being anti-jewish.
(see George Lincoln Rockwell and the Nation of Islam working together in the early 60s)

Edit: Post made it sound like I'm a Nazi apologist. I'm absolutely not

The problem is that Ethiopia is a very weak ally while the USSR was a strong one. It would cost too much money from Germany to upgrade it up from "completely useless". If they were going to use money to prop up a potential ally it would be Italy, followed by Romania and/or Hungry not Ethiopia.
 
As said by others, there is the question of money, all that cost and Abyssinia was not really rich in any way and the only one that can give loan are the Anglo-French, unfortunely the economic and political dealing of the British, French and Italians with the Abyssinian were regulated by a series of treaty and do this will create a diplomatic fuss.
Plus, well i said, the presence of foreign black people trying to help the local modernize will not really win many fans as they poaching in their economic interest...and i don't even talk about the paramilitary units.
Not considering the social changes that all that will cause...in a nation famous for resolving this with violence, really Abyssinia was more 'A Game of Throne' Land than a modern nation, Selassiè tried very hard to modernize during his time but not only there are limit at one can achieve in a limited period but also what the system can take and a bunch of foreigner (because the UNIA member will be seen as foreigner more or less like an italian or a British) telling them what to do will really not help
Ethiopian would have little to gain bitte everything to loose. They could be easily attacked by Brits and French in a similiar way the Italians did.
 
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