The year is 2015. Rick Santorum is President. The GOP possesses a majority in both the House and Senate. Tax cuts and deregulation are rampant. A Democratic filibuster has saved Social Security and Medicare from privatization. Economic recovery is extremely slow; the Hillary Clinton administration's reforms only went so far.

While Santorum's re-nomination is basically assured, the Democratic nomination is truly up for grabs. The main front runner speculated by the media is former Vice President Evan Bayh; a number of other politicians form exploratory committees, including Lincoln Chafee, Jim Webb, and Martin O'Malley.

However, two seemingly unlikely candidates arise--popular Illinois Senator Barack Obama, and dark horse candidate Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT). The Democrats have to paint their party in a different light from the 20 years of centrist establishment governance (Clinton, Gore, & Clinton).

Obama campaigns to the left of Bayh et al, but even Obama is backed by corporate money. Sanders declares himself a democratic socialist and calls for such reforms as universal health care, universal college, paid leave, campaign finance reform, cuts to military spending, and a myriad of other progressive positions.

Who wins in this scenario? Though I wish I could say Sanders, I have a feeling Obama will pull through due to a number of factors, including big-money donors, seemingly center-left campaign rhetoric, and of course his race. What does the board think?
 
How does Santorum beat Clinton in the first place?

In my scenario the Great Recession is delayed several months, so essentially her administration takes the blow & the Democrats lose Congress. By the 2012 election people would probably say, "All right, that's enough of the Democrats." Sorry I forgot to mention that.
 
Obama. Not even a question, really. He'd roll up the South and big urban areas, leaving the other two to fight over scraps. A gigantic personal scandal would be needed for even a semblance of a fair fight.
 
Obama would still seem like the front-runner to me, but I suppose after being in the Senate for years, the hope and change narrative would be harder. IOTL a lot of his colleagues predicted him getting bored in the Senate and running for Governor of Illinois. Did this timeline's Obama pass on 08? As an unrelated aside, I wonder what his Senate re-elect margin is in a 2010 where the full great recession is being blamed on Democrats.
 
Evan Bayh's the guy who turned a 16-point lead into a 10-point loss in 4 months. He's not winning. Sanders only got so close because he was up against Clinton, and even then he never had much of a chance, 2016 primaries were the one time when Clinton=inevitable was actually right. Obama would win it, though some other candidates should probably run.
 
Obama,hands down.

Bayh failed to win re-election even though he lead by over 10 points.

Sanders was more just an Anti-Clinton candidate that was a Democrat version of Trump.
 
Presumably, Obama lost the 2008 primaries and decided not to challenge Clinton in 2012.

I imagine that he'd be the presumptive nominee and frontrunner as soon as he entered the race.
 
Presumably, Obama lost the 2008 primaries and decided not to challenge Clinton in 2012.

I imagine that he'd be the presumptive nominee and frontrunner as soon as he entered the race.

My imagining is that Obama wouldn't have been inclined to run ITTL '08 due to the absence of the Iraq War, though I'm open to any challenges to that notion. That's why I postponed the recession for a few months so Clinton would succeed Gore in '08. I suppose this scenario could also work in a TL where Clinton succeeded Bush, but instead Romney would win in 2012 rather than Santorum (basically any placeholder Republican would do).

Btw I agree with the board's general consensus that Obama is the likely winner no matter what.
 
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