AHC: Balkanized US after 1865

I think that it could be possible in a CSA victory or survival scenario. The individual states could drift apart due to a weak central government. The western states/territories, such as California or Deseret, could break off too after the US is defeated and has their own reasons for breaking away.
 
I think that it could be possible in a CSA victory or survival scenario. The individual states could drift apart due to a weak central government. The western states/territories, such as California or Deseret, could break off too after the US is defeated and has their own reasons for breaking away.

As the title says, the challenge is to plausibly balkanize the United States with a POD after 1865. Enjoy!

Remember, the POD has to be after 1865.
 

frlmerrin

Banned
This is actually quite hard. During the ACW a little European intervention and the place falls apart like a house of cards but after 1865 it is very hard.

A crushing defeat by Spain in the Spanish-American war or even in ATL wars arising from the various confrontations with Italy and Britain are not particularly likely to balkanise the USA.

I can think of only a few options.

1) Earlier and harsher repression of the Communists and Syndicalists so that the crisis point comes before WWI. There is a subsequent revolution and the country breaks down in a massive civil war with lots of foreign intervention.
2) Britain gets really annoyed by the Fennian raids of 1866 and sees it as invasion by proxy. They reject the resolution of the Pig War, Alabama Claims, Grand Banks fishing conflict and assorted border and trade issues by arbitration and diplomacy. They repudiate the Rush-Bagot argeement and the RN 'cannons-up' on the Great Lakes. The USA is denied access to the sea via the St. Lawrence. NA&WIS and PS are strengthened as is the regular army and militia in what will be Canada come 1867 and Newfoundland. Britain repudiates all USA protective tariffs on manufactured goods and imposes punishing tariffs on exported USA goods in a trade war. British investment in the USA collapses. Up to this point we are not stretching credibility at all. However, we have to now assume that the British play hard ball for at least 20 years (possible) and that the USA is unyeilding in the face of pressure (less likely). Over the course of those 20 years the USA's economy slumps and so consequently does immigration. Social migration upward and indeed westward by members of the immigrant underclass becomes much harder. The USA ethnically clenses the West much faster and more completely in order to sell land and gain a source of income. Taxes on extracted minerals (gold, silver, mica, petroleum) are increased to fund Federal Government spending. Destitution, persecution and poverty for Hispanics and Blacks are far worse than in OTL. Uprisings in South and West. Break-away movement in NE due to Draconian taxation to fund suppression of uprisings. Several deep southern states attempt to sesceed in a new Confederacy citing the need to properly control blacks. California, Arizona and Texas attempt independence to relieve taxation and impose harsh anti-Hispanic 'control' laws. Oregon and Washington also move for independence. Cost of suppression of these independence movements causes further harsh taxation and further unrest. And so on.

It would work but it does require a USA Govt. that is pig-headed enough not to change course for 20 years (several examples of that) and stupid enough to take it on the chin in a trade war that is hurting the USA badly for 20 years (can't think of an example of this although the USA has had a few 10 year cases of beating itself up).
 
As the title says, the challenge is to plausibly balkanize the United States with a POD after 1865. Enjoy!

The only way I can see this as even REMOTELY possible, is in a pyrrhic Union victory: The CSA is conquered, but after a much more bloody, exhausting fight, leaving both sides even more embittered towards the other than was the case OTL. A much harsher Reconstruction, combined with Southern guerilla-activity against the occupation on a massive scale, hurting the US army significantly, which leads to brutal retaliations against civilians, which leads to more embitterment, etc, I could see a permanent split between the Union and the CSA, sometime during the 1880s, when the Union decides it's more trouble keeping the south occupied, than its worth.

How to proceed with splitting up from there, I have no clue. Hey, I don't even consider the above as very plausible.
 
AFTER 1865 seems quite impossible. the only thing that comes to my mind, as members before me said, is a continued guerrilla warfare through the south after appomattox. an eventual long, draining conflict, would lead to a far harsher treatment of the reconstructed zones, therefore the risk for the union forces to lose every popular support of their actions.

but another uprising seems quite hard to create, mostly because of the state of exhaustion of the south and of her finance post 1865. strange as it might seems, a balkanization by war would be even more impossible of a political split on regional lines

from 1918 on, the sheer force of the US army could easily keep in check any kind of rebellion, so the only period in which a possible split could be reached is in the late 19th century, but i cannot honestly see what could lead to a balkanization without events of a huge scale created by eventual butterflies of the original POD such as mass hangings or restriction of personal freedom
 
-KKK rises in the south and organizes politically at an earlier stage
-Feinian raids involve UK more and threaten war, Washington as manpower but is forced to back down in face of UK naval supremacy and fear of loss of trade
-Socialist riots see more harsh crackdowns following depressions in 1873 and 1890
-US loses to Spain in Spanish-American war and popular perception is that Southern units take the brunt of the losses (mostly due to disease before leaving port), Washington loses significant face in the eyes of much on the country
-US loses takeover bid for Hawaii as UK moves in following defeat by the Spanish, brief stirrings of conflict are resolved but Washington loses more face
-General strike ensues across the nation afterwards following depression in 1901, McKinley is shot in the course of events and panic ensues as Washington thinks it is the work of international Communism
-Secret Service forms "Homeland Security" division, any reference to Marx is burned and accusations require surprisingly little evidence to become official charges
-Tensely divided country sparks into domestic riots starting because of concerns over coal-mining in West Virginia, riots spread nationwide in 9 days
-Armed forces and "concerned citizens" (i.e. draftees for Homeland Security) put down riots in national bloodbath known as Anne Picken's day after a child killed by unknown people on the first day of the riots
-Prohibition is passed soon afterwards as "demon rum" is blamed for the incindiary behavior
-Criminal elements take over much of the country and corruption goes all the way to the top
-World War I goes badly for US with repeated defeats due to premature involvement, soldiers bring back Spanish flu in third year of fighting
-Flu pandemic causes panic and widespread, unabashed corruption leads to mistrust of public officials. Trade slows dramatically as people fight to ward off plague victims and refugees
-Texas decides it is better off alone instead of being on "the losing team" and secedes on August 21, 1921. US armed forces begin to rally to reclaim the state but surprisingly other states decide they will join Texas, namely New Mexico, Arizona, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.
-Texas sends out a call of distress: fight for us and become citizens, no questions asked. Rebuild an American dream here as Texans and live under a Free State
-US armed forces are battered and facing veterans of equal quality t their own troops, the battles are horrific and little headway is made
-California asks for home-rule status as it is facing raids from Texas and most US troops are occupied, Utah asks for the same, both are denied
-Utah secedes on March 4, 1922 and California secedes two days later, they will later join with Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado to form the Union of Western American States
-Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina secede with Texas as the Boll Weevil devastates the South and little relief from an impoverished government is evident
-Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia hold secession referendums but they fail to pass
-Texas forces break through US lines and march into Kansas and Missouri in late 1922, by the time a cease-fire is called the battle lines run through middle Tennessee, the Missouri river, and the northern 3/4 of Kansas
-Treaty of Denver: US recognizes the newly formed Republic of Texas (now including southern/central Kansas and Missouri) and the UWAS as it has little power to stop them from leaving, both new nations are quickly recognized by the major powers
-Great Depression causes anxiety and angst among newer countries and the US leftovers, the Deep South leaves Texas after feeling it is not getting treated fairly from the oil money going into Texas proper and forms the Confederated States of North America out of Atlanta (FL, GA, SC, AL, MS - This impoverished nation continues to remain among the poorest nation in the Western Hemisphere though it is stubbornly independent and irredentalist for much of the former US). In a swelling or religious fervor, the Republic of Deseret (Utah, western Colorado, Nevada, Wyoming, and southern Idaho) secedes from the UWAS leaving northern Idaho and Montana to combine with Eastern Washington as the Free Mountain Republic. Alaska votes to join the UWAS as a state. Eastern Colorado surprisingly returns to the US.
-World War II sees the United States flourish as an industrial powerhouse with the help of trade with the Free Mountain Republic and Republic of Deseret. Industrialization revitalizes the Great Lakes and sees Kentucky, Nebraska, and Wisconsin emerge as newly industrialized states (no California incentives here). UWAS permits UK to use San Francisco Bay as a naval station much to the chargin of Washington.
 
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