AHC: Balkanized Indonesia

Indonesia is one of the most diverse countries on earth, with hundreds of different ethnic groups speaking different languages, practicing different religions (though the vast majority are Muslim) and with different cultures. Despite these differences, Indonesia remains united and there is little support for separatism among most groups (though there have been separatist revolts, from Aceh to Papua).

With a POD after the Japanese invasion of the Dutch East Indies, is it possible for Indonesia to collapse into several different countries?
 
I want to do it the other way round.

If Yugoslavia had a political system similar to that of Indonesia, it might still exist:

A nationwide ruling party, supplemented by a nationwide opposition, other than a political confederation comprised of seven single-party states.
A presidential system, other than a “presidium” with members from several republics.
Rules about the origins of the presidents and the Vice Presidents. For instance, if the president is Javanese Muslim of military background, the Vice President is likely to be a non-Javanese Christian of civilian background.
 
Yes, its possible.
Dutch would have to recognize independence of rebellious provinces (basically only Java or/and Sumatra), but not their claim on entire DEI.
Dissolve rump DEI along ethnic lines, give successor states status similar to British Dominions. And most importantly, transfer military forces of former DEI to those new Dominions.
Java-Sumatra regime, would of course refuse to recognize new states, claiming to represent whole Indonesia. Except now they'd wouldn't be fighting colonial regime on their home territory, they'd be fighting alliance of independent nationstates on theirs home territory, states which inherited all Dutch advantage in military power, but not their perceived lack of legitimacy among their people. Nationstates that would defend their independence from Sukarno's attempts to incorporate them into greater Indonesia.
 
Yes, its possible.
Dutch would have to recognize independence of rebellious provinces (basically only Java or/and Sumatra), but not their claim on entire DEI.
Dissolve rump DEI along ethnic lines, give successor states status similar to British Dominions. And most importantly, transfer military forces of former DEI to those new Dominions.
Java-Sumatra regime, would of course refuse to recognize new states, claiming to represent whole Indonesia. Except now they'd wouldn't be fighting colonial regime on their home territory, they'd be fighting alliance of independent nationstates on theirs home territory, states which inherited all Dutch advantage in military power, but not their perceived lack of legitimacy among their people. Nationstates that would defend their independence from Sukarno's attempts to incorporate them into greater Indonesia.

US opinion is critical for this, tho. It is important to note that OTL, the United States supported Indonesia's cause, instead of the Dutch. Much of this could be explained by anti-imperialist sentiment that made Americans pushed other European powers to quit their colonies.

But, in Indonesia's case, some of this could also be explained by the 1948 affair, a failed communist rebellion crushed by the republican government. This convinced the American that an Independent Indonesia will be anti-communist.

Just say that 1948 affair didn't happen. Communist remained a major part of Indonesian uprising. This could cast doubt into the Americans about Indonesia, especially considering Indonesia's large size and plentiful natural resources. Then, the Dutch came brought the plan to give the colony separate independence....
 
Top