AHC: Balkanize China

Yeah, you described as a potential situation something that is today's actual situation. It doesn't add a lot to a counter-factual discussion.

Except for the fact that there would be a fairly significant difference between several good sized states in what is (the People's Republic of) China OTL today and something where there's just one outlier.

I'm pretty sure that most "Keep China from reuniting" theories are based on the idea that OTL counts as, at least for purposes of the question, united - DBWIs aside, in other words.
 
Except for the fact that there would be a fairly significant difference between several good sized states in what is (the People's Republic of) China OTL today and something where there's just one outlier.

I'm pretty sure that most "Keep China from reuniting" theories are based on the idea that OTL counts as, at least for purposes of the question, united - DBWIs aside, in other words.

True. I personally don't think China is unified right now, but I accept the idea that others think differently.
 
It's easy to come up with scenarios where Xinjiang, Tibet, Mongolia, and Manchuria all become independent and stay outside of China.

However, it is much harder to split up the Han portions of China into independent states with a POD as late as the Taiping Rebellion. By that time, the concept of "China" was too well established.

It's possible that the Cantonese portion could form the basis of an independent state. It has its own language, and during the warlord era had an effective clique (although its important to note the Cantonese cliques never wanted independence). It was also economically developed enough to realistically be its own state.

Yunnan is also a possibility if it gets a really good leader, but the rest of China is kept weak. Before WWII, the number of ethnic Han was low, and its mountainous terrain is good for defense.

But the rest of China - the Yangtze and Yellow basins and the north China plain - will stay one country.
 

scholar

Banned
...what?

You need only have different factions claim to be china or its spiritual successor in order for potentially dozens of states to take hold in the Han regions. Not to mention that the regional dialects cause communication problems as it is making it possible to isolate part of the Han ethnicity from the rest without much difficulty.
 
The more I learn about Chinese history, the more I become convinced that the only good POD for a permanently disunited China is in the Warring States period. Of course, I can see an independent Tibet, and an independent Manchuria and Xinjiang, but I don't think you can really divide China Proper into many polities that are more than Warlord Cliques or any other group claiming legitimacy over all of China.
 
I'm going to go with the cliched and easy route

Have China and the US have a nasty disagreement in '60 or 61 so China is still on SAC's master list

Then have an *Cuban missile crisis escalate

Assume Taiwan is hit hard and SAC is thorough enough to smash any concentration capable of reuniting the country

Then assume NATO decides to take measures to ensure China cannot one day threaten them
 
Instead of just arguing over if the POD is right, I'm going to take a shot at it to get the ball rolling - correct anything you want, I'm just spitballing here.

1855 - Frederick Townsend Ward, having enlisted in the French Army dies of dysentry in the Crimean War. He never makes it to Shanghai and without him the Ever Victorious Army is not ever victorious.
1860 - Taipings approach Shanghai, defeating the Shanghai Foreign Arms Corps financed by the merchant interests. But these were businessmen, and were always ready to deal. The Taipings wanted access to a port, and the Manchus to lose Shanghai. A group of merchants met with Taiping commanders, and worked out the Shanghai Concordat. The merchants financed the overthrow of the Manchus in Shanghai, and declared it an open port. The Taipings would have full access. On paper Shanghai was governed by a council of merchants (both European and Chinese), but in effect was controlled by the British Consul.
1863 - The war along the Yangtze is hurting trade, badly. In order to end the war the powers, led by Britain and France, recognize the Taiping government in southern China. They demand the Manchus stop the war, and march on Peking to enforce peace. The Emperor is killed in the battle as the Summer Palae burns. The Empire descends into chaos.
1863-1866 - As the Manchu Empire burns the powers scramble for the choicest parts of China. The British take Canton, the Pearl River delta and Formosa. The French take Hainan Island and parts of Fujian province.
1863-1890 - Taiping flourishes with free trade down the Yangtze and good relations with their fellow "Christians" - their religion is taught extensively in their country, and is linked to success and prestige in government and business.
1865 - Yakub Beg seizes and expands muslim Kashgaria
To 1895 The northern "Chinese Empire" is wracked by civil war, between various Manchu claimants and Han usurpers. Parts of the south are industralising and being better educated under British and French rule. The continued civil war in the north is seen as a opportunity for the other powers, notabaly Germany, Russia and Japan.
1895 to 1905 - Various wars between China and Germany, Russia and Japan. German and Russia areas meet at Tientsin.
1914 - The First World War breaks out and German and Russia troops fight in northern China, both use thousands of native troops.
1915 - Amur Massacre German led Han Chinese troops massacre 22,000 Manchurians on the Amur who were under Russian command.
1917 - Treaty of Brest-Listovsk - Russia gives up parts of Manchuria under German occupation - retains Outer and Inner Mongolia and territory along the Amur (more or less today's Heilongjiang province).
1918 - German home front collapses - Army in Northern China is undefeated and refuses to abide by the Treaty of Versailles giving Germany's Chinese colonies to Japan and France.
1924 - Mongolia and Red Manchuria are declared SSRs of the USSR.

So by 1920 we have:
1. Taiping Heavenly Kingdom - South of the Yangtze excluding Fujian and Guangdong provinces. Very different from rest of China due to official religion, language not being mandarin, and good relations with British and French - richer too due to open trade on the Yangtze.
2. Emirate of Kashgaria - Muslim state, limited Han immigration ruled by Tajik dynasty - sees itself as part of the Central Asian dynamic - much more interested in what is happening in Afghanistan than what is happening on the Pacific coast.
4. Crown Colony of Canton and Formosa - British China - official languages are English and Cantonese. Mandarin is discouraged, what industrialisation that has happened in China has happened there. Education levels are higher as well. The native inhabitants look down on northerners as of a decidely lower class.
5. Fujian - French Colony. Better education, fought Germans in First World War - closely tied to Shanghai economically.
6. Hainan Island - Integrated in French Indo-China - Viet and Cambodians are imported to increase agricultural output.
7. Grand Duchy of Shandong - German ruled coast China. You though the Freikorps was trouble. These guys have an economy, and a population that feels better off than under the Japanese or the Manchus.
8. Japanese China - The Liaodong Peninsula integrated with Japanese Korea.
9. The Empire of China - Rump state riven by civil war, hampered by lack of economy, access to the sea and education. The people feel little connection with the Emperor (whomever it is this month) and are a little jealous of the better living standards elsewhere.
10. Red China - Mongolia SSR and Manchurian SSR. Soviet Republics under Moscow's thumb. All education is in Russian, religion is banned. The gulags in Mongolia become espescially notorious.
11. Free City of Shanghai - Economic centre of China. People are flocking there from the interior. Very cosmopolitan.
12. Tibet - of course

Rough map is attached.

BalkanChina1925.png
 
Interesting.
4. Crown Colony of Canton and Formosa - British China - official languages are English and Cantonese. Mandarin is discouraged, what industrialisation that has happened in China has happened there. Education levels are higher as well. The native inhabitants look down on northerners as of a decidely lower class.
I don't think the British would need to do much discouraging of Mandarin. Few people spoke it in Canton/Guandong and virtually no one spoke it in Formosa/Taiwan until after WWII, although why would Cantonese be included as an official language but not Minnan as well? As for the British that try to take the rest of Taiwan (the Qing were only able to control the western lowlands), well, good luck.

12. Tibet - of course
Tibet would probably include more of Sichuan and Qinghai since those two provinces have large culturally Tibetan areas.
 
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