AHC: Balkanize Brazil with a POD no later than 1889

Challenge: Balkanize OTL Brazil in several states with a POD no latter than 1889 (Republic)....let's suppose that Brazil goes the same way of the Spanish Colonies in Latin America...
 
If Napoleon doesn't invade Iberia, the Portuguese Royal family won't move the court to Brazil. Without the proud identity and the infrastructure boost that gave the place, it's likely to divide up into several states on independence.
 
If Napoleon doesn't invade Iberia, the Portuguese Royal family won't move the court to Brazil. Without the proud identity and the infrastructure boost that gave the place, it's likely to divide up into several states on independence.

Agree.....how many nations would result from the dissolution of the former Portuguese colony?

Other possible POD....Dom Pedro dies or is severly incapacitated before September 1822
 
The North, the South, and the South-East could probably form three separate nations at the drop of a hat.
 
Challenge: Balkanize OTL Brazil in several states with a POD no latter than 1889 (Republic)....let's suppose that Brazil goes the same way of the Spanish Colonies in Latin America...

The War of the Cabanagem, the Sabinada, the Balaida and the Piratini revolt happen at the same time, leaving the central government unable to use drafts of troops from the south to suppress the rebellions in the north. The country splinters into separate states of Bahia, Pará, Piratini (Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul) and a rump Brazil centered on Rio.
 
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I'd guess rump Brazil would still be the richest thanks to gold and diamonds in Minas and Rio being such a major port. I reckon one or other republics would get conquered by it sooner rather than later.
 
The War of the Cabanagem, the Sabinada, the Balaida and the Piratini revolt happen at the same time, leaving the central government unable to use drafts of troops from the south to suppress the rebellions in the north. The country splinters into separate states of Bahia, Belem, Piratini (Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul) and a rump Brazil centered on Rio.
Who gets the Amazon in this scenario?
 
Maybe the rump Brazil would manage to reannex the independent Bahia but don't know if it would be possible to regaing farflung areas like the Grao Para and Rio Grande do Sul...my guess is that nowadays this alternate Brazil would be divided in the following countries:

Brazil - OTLs Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Parana, Espirito Santo, Minas Gerais, Goias and parts of Mato Grosso do Sul and Santa Catarina...Bahia and Sergipe a probability also.

The Ecuatorian Confederation (or other name) - Alagoas, Pernambuco, Paraiba, Rio Grande do Norte, Ceara, Piaui.

Grao Para - Maranhao, Para, Amazonas, Roraima, Rondonia, Amapa.

Republica Riograndense - Rio Grande do Sul and part of Santa Catarina (other probability is that they would unite with Uruguay).

Wild card: Mato Grosso - culturally linked with the alternate Brazil but too far and without direct connections with Rio de Janeiro....maybe would be a flashpoint between Brazil and Grao Para.

Acre would remain in Bolivia....
 
Who gets the Amazon in this scenario?

Up for grabs, I'd say. Pará would have access, but would probably be too poor to exploit it; the other republics wouldn't have easy access. All of them would claim it. Once the rubber boom starts, the great powers and regional powers would try to either control Pará or set up client states in the Amazon interior (possibly along the lines of OTL's short-lived Republic of Acre). One or more rubber wars may be a possibility.
 
No, the Grao Para (where Cabanagem happened) would be the natural state to control the Amazon basin....

Ah right - didn't see Grão Para on the list :p

At that time, where was most of Brazl's economy based on? What effects would losing the forest and the south (produced a lot of meat I believe?) produce?
 
I'd guess rump Brazil would still be the richest thanks to gold and diamonds in Minas and Rio being such a major port. I reckon one or other republics would get conquered by it sooner rather than later.

In fact the gold and diamonds mines of Minas started to decline no later than 1780s and in the 1830s/40s Minas was an almost agricultural province....Brazil at that time was starting to become the major coffee producer in the world, with coffee plantations in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo
 
Ah right - didn't see Grão Para on the list :p

At that time, where was most of Brazl's economy based on? What effects would losing the forest and the south (produced a lot of meat I believe?) produce?

Losing the Amazon in 1840s would not be something so relevant to the "rump Brazil"......Amazon was until the rubber boom in the end of 19th. Century an almost empty space with small economic activity without many communication links with the rest of Brazil (no land connections and almost a month of navigation between Rio de Janeiro and Belem). In fact Amazon was seen as an exotic and sickly (malaria and yellow fever) place.

Losing Rio Grande do Sul would generate a stronger impact in the Brazilian economy as the main producer of meat and leather in the country, but the main impact would be military, as Rio Grande do Sul (togheter with Uruguay) acted as a counterbalance to Argentina and Paraguay, keeping the Parana and Paraguay rivers (essencial to communication with Mato Grosso) open to Brazilian navegation.

At that time coffee was becoming the main product of the Brazilian economy but the country was also a strong producer of cotton in the Northeast and sugarcane.
 
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