I was doing a bit of reading about the Balkan League, the alliance between Bulgaria, Serbia, Greece, and Montenegro, which had the intended goal of kicking the Ottoman Empire out of Europe, and I realised how fragile it all really was. There were tensions between Serbia and Bulgaria over Vadar Macedonia, Bulgaria and Greece over Thessaloniki and Aegean Macedonia, not to mention the Bulgarian snobbery towards the Greek military, and the Montenegrans didn't even really want to join and had minor territorial ambitions.
So, the question/challenge is, what if the Balkan League, despite Russian pressures, had fallen apart before the First Balkan War? Perhaps the tension between Serbia and Bulgaria is simply too much and they cannot come to an agreement over Macedonia? Maybe Greeks decide not to play second fiddle to the Bulgarians and keep their fleet at anchor. In the latter case, the Ottomans would be able to field reinforcements directly from Asia to Europe, especially in places like Adrianople, Thessaloniki, and of course Constantinople, if the war should still go on.
If, say, Montenergo and Greece back out, is there a chance that Russia would become more directly involved? They won a victory against the Turks in 1878, after all. Of course, the Russians knew that the great powers would stop at nothing to prevent Russian access to the Mediterranean, so the whole thing could lead to a second Crimean War. But I am getting ahead of myself here.
The real questions are these: If the Balkan League fails to emerge, or collapses before it can get any traction going, is the First Balkan War averted? If the First Balkan War is averted, what does Europe look like a few years down the line? Would such a thing prevent general war breaking out on the continent WWI-style, with Russia's influence in the Balkans now lessened? Is it likely that the Turkish position in Europe falters regardless, as they were facing revolts in Albania and disquet backed by Bulgaria in Macedonia and Thrace anyway?
So, the question/challenge is, what if the Balkan League, despite Russian pressures, had fallen apart before the First Balkan War? Perhaps the tension between Serbia and Bulgaria is simply too much and they cannot come to an agreement over Macedonia? Maybe Greeks decide not to play second fiddle to the Bulgarians and keep their fleet at anchor. In the latter case, the Ottomans would be able to field reinforcements directly from Asia to Europe, especially in places like Adrianople, Thessaloniki, and of course Constantinople, if the war should still go on.
If, say, Montenergo and Greece back out, is there a chance that Russia would become more directly involved? They won a victory against the Turks in 1878, after all. Of course, the Russians knew that the great powers would stop at nothing to prevent Russian access to the Mediterranean, so the whole thing could lead to a second Crimean War. But I am getting ahead of myself here.
The real questions are these: If the Balkan League fails to emerge, or collapses before it can get any traction going, is the First Balkan War averted? If the First Balkan War is averted, what does Europe look like a few years down the line? Would such a thing prevent general war breaking out on the continent WWI-style, with Russia's influence in the Balkans now lessened? Is it likely that the Turkish position in Europe falters regardless, as they were facing revolts in Albania and disquet backed by Bulgaria in Macedonia and Thrace anyway?