AHC: Axis Victory in the Second World War

While World War II is discussed greatly here, the fact remains that an Axis victory is extremely, extremely difficult to achieve. The Allies had so much material advantage stacked in their favor that the odds of the Allies winning the war were likely around 90-95%. This stands in stark contrast to World War I, where it was truly a coin toss as to whether the Allies or CP won.

But here, your challenge, if you choose to accept it, is to create a timeline in which the Axis powers are victorious over the Allies. Here are the win conditions:
-Nazi Germany has decisively won the war in Europe and has conquered all of Russia as Lebensraum
-Japan has successfully conquered most of China and has created the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere

I do not care about the POD. Go as far back as you want, with as many as you want. But create any timeline in which the Tripartite pact is victorious over the Allies.

The only POD I can possibly think of is:
-Somehow, the UK surrenders after the fall of France. Perhaps this can occur due to Germany decisively annihilating the armies at Dunkirk, rather than halting the advance at Dunkirk. If the Western Allies are entirely out of the war, there is a decent chance that the Nazis can successfully defeat the Soviet Union in a 1v1.

Try your best.
 
After the invasion of France, the local communists supported the invaders per the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement. The CPGB did so as well. Let's say the CPGB is able to assassinate Chamberlain, Churchill, and the royal family. They declare the British Soviet Socialist Republic. They shoot Joe Kennedy and declare war on the United States, and expose the Intrepid operation. The UK falls into a civil war between loyalists, socialists, and fascists. Maybe the IRA and Chandra Bose join in.
This is a pretty big "if," but it's not 100% impossible.

So, with the UK in chaos for a while, Barbarossa launches on schedule. Maybe Stalin has Zhukov shot, and then has a heart attack, and the Germans take and hold Moscow. Then Hitler has a heart attack, and Goering is shot during a "hunting accident." Not 100% impossible. This could give the Germans a victory that might last for several years before collapsing.

So, not 100% impossible, but rather unlikely.
 
So this is extremely unlikely but here we go.
POD: 1934 - French far-right successfully takes control of the country and allies with Germany. Without a real foothold on the continent Britain decides not to get involved. German successfully storms Poland in 1939, with an attack on the Soviet Union in summer 1940 seeing Moscow fall by December. Gruelling partisan warfare follows, millions of Germans and tens of millions of Soviets die in the ensuing decade.
Meanwhile, China seems closer ties with Germany, Fascist French Indochina becomes a major conduit for weapons. The Japanese sell themselves as a check on “Fascist” China to the Americans and British. Anglo-British neutrality allows the Japanese to carry the war on to final stalemate.
None of this is going to last of course, the Nazi way of doing things just isn’t very stable, it probably all comes apart in the ensuing decade.
 
Bruce Quarrie's "The Victory That Nearly Was" is basically a TL where everything goes right for the Axis starting with a successful invasion of Malta in 1941 (Barbarossa postponed a year).

That leads to a German victory in North Africa and the Middle East and forces Britain to surrender.

The Japanese delay Pearl Harbor and are able to catch the entire Pacific Fleet at anchor.

Russia is invaded in late April 1942 and, without British or American help, collapses in early 1943 with the simultaneous falls of Moscow, Leningrad and Syalingrad leading to an NKVD coup against Stalin.

The Germans secure vital British knowledge on the atomic bomb and are able to incinerate Long Island in late 1943 via an atomic bomb delivered on a V-2. Roosevelt capitulates.

It's the most convincing scenario I've ever read but it stretches credibility to breaking point and a couple of notches beyond...
 
The Germans secure vital British knowledge on the atomic bomb and are able to incinerate Long Island in late 1943 via an atomic bomb delivered on a V-2. Roosevelt capitulates.
I doubt a V-2, especially one that could be crammed into a submarine, would have the moxie to loft a first-generation fission bomb.

But there's no reason a stealthy U-Boat crew couldn't sneak its way into New York harbor, or perhaps both NY harbor and Norfolk, and die for the Fatherland.
 
You'd probably have to have Britain stay completely neutral (which, despite Hitler's initial belief that he could even have Britain as an ally, would be highly unlikely) to have the Axis win WWII.
 

thaddeus

Donor
Germany gets a stalemate with the UK, the USSR invades Iran and prepares to invade India to back Chandra Bose in a revolt, Germany invades the USSR with the clandestine agreement of the UK.

Japan? I got nothing ...
 
- Rommel and the Germans evacuate from Tunisia before it's too late, saving 300k + soldiers, 3k aircraft, 1k field guns, hundreds of tanks, and thousands of trucks.

- Kursk is cancelled and the Eastern Wall is properly fortified, with the intention that they can hold the line and bleed the Soviets white.

- Tunisian Troops are used to fortify Italy and Sicily to keep it in the game longer while Tunisian aircraft in this atl scenario are sent to France, severely delaying Allied air superiority over Normandy.

- Slightly better success in the U-boat War.

- Germans standardize their AFV industry, limiting themselves to nothing but Stugs, Hetzers, Panthers, and Tiger 1s so that production is easier and increases.

- Car accident kills key members of the Manhattan Project.

- Hitler dies in 1943, Georing gets rehab in 1940 after his failure during the Battle of Britain and cleans himself up so he can function as Further.






Do the above, and maybe, just maybe you can get the Soviets to run out of men on the Eastern Front and force Stalin to negotiate all the white delaying D-Day so the Wallies can't get a foothold before the Soviets sign a white peace.
 
German successfully storms Poland in 1939, with an attack on the Soviet Union in summer 1940 seeing Moscow fall by December. Gruelling partisan warfare follows, millions of Germans and tens of millions of Soviets die in the ensuing decade.
I think there is something in this, though from an entirely different angle.

War goes as OTL until 9 April 1940. The Germans do not invade Denmark and Norway, but the Royal Navy mines the Leads off Narvik. The Norwegians partially sever diplomatic relations (withdrawing ambassador from London, and expelling British ambassador from Oslo). Germans offer air support, but no ground troops, and @ 20 Bf-109D and @ 40 Ju-87B/He-111H and @ 10 10 He-115 are sent to Bergen and Sola. On 10 April, the Home Fleet is bombed as OTL with HMS Rodney hit (bomb does not explode) and HMS Gurkha sunk. Home Fleet withdraws further out to sea as OTL. Opinion in neutral capitals is harsh on Great Britain, especially in the United States. On 8 May 1940, Winston Churchill is forced to take the blame and resigns as First Lord.

On 15 April, heavy cruiser KMS Lutzow, previously sold to the USSR on 11 February 1940, is "accidentally" grounded in the Weser River by the German company hired to tow it to Leningrad. The Soviets are informed that refloating and drydocking to inspect for damage will take another month.

On 10 May 1940, the Germans invade the USSR with the pretext being the Soviet establishment of bases and troop concentration in Lithuania the previous October violated the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact. Army Group B (OTL OB) is pushing from East Prussia into Lithuania and Northern Belorussia with an axis of advances on Leningrad and Minsk. Army Group A pushes into eastern Poland with an Axis of advance eventually shifting towards the Ukraine. As a reward for slices of Slovakia obtained the previous year, Admiral Horthy is are pressured into providing First Hungarian Army to augment Army Group A. Army Group C is left in place to guard Germany's frontier with France. Germany begins supplying the Finnish Army, and by the end of June the Finns are able to resume fighting the Soviets.

The Soviets are ill-prepared. The command structure is still very weak after Stalin's purges, and although Finland was subdued two months previously, the severe losses sustained in doing so have left the Soviet armed forces in a deep crisis of confidence. Coordinated German ground and air units are able to inflict a series of severe defeats on the Soviets, and by the beginning of August all supply links to Leningrad are cut off, and six weeks later the city surrenders. Army Group B refits and turns its attention toward Moscow.

Hitler's intuition (and I doubt his strategic analysis went much deeper than intuition) is the British and French will do nothing as he drives deeper into the Soviet Union. He is correct, throughout the phony war Allied political and military leaders concentrated more on coningency plans against Stalin than Hitler. Such planning included sending an expeditionary force the help Finland, or bombing Baku oil fields from airfields in Syria. Within those fiercely anti-Communist political and military circles there is no desire to help the Russians at all; they are getting just desserts for stabbing Poland in the back and invading Finland. It is commomly admitted Hitler is just following his manefesto in "Mein Kampf" for Lebensraum in the East. It is now obvious Poland cannot be redeemed, and Chamberlain is quite able to delude himself that an honorable peace is possible with Herr Hitler, and another World War I scale bloodletting of British manpower need not take place. French leaders are not far behind, and an amicable peace conference is concluded in late September 1940.

The Italians and Japanese were not privy to Hitler's plans, but both join the anti-Communist crusade the Japanese tee up Nomonhan Part II and an Italian Corps is sent to Army Group A.

Hitler had not been subject to the intoxicating effects of lightning campaigns in Scandinavia, the West and the Balkans in 1940-41, and is somewhat more cautious. As the temperatures drop in the autumn, the Axis armies to onto the defensive and prepare for the fierce winter. The advance on Moscow and the eastern Ukraine will resume in the spring of 1941. It is a campaign that neither Stalin, nor the concept of a Soviet Union will survive.

OK, this is my best shot; Naysayers - have at it !!
 
I think there is something in this, though from an entirely different angle.

War goes as OTL until 9 April 1940. The Germans do not invade Denmark and Norway, but the Royal Navy mines the Leads off Narvik. The Norwegians partially sever diplomatic relations (withdrawing ambassador from London, and expelling British ambassador from Oslo). Germans offer air support, but no ground troops, and @ 20 Bf-109D and @ 40 Ju-87B/He-111H and @ 10 10 He-115 are sent to Bergen and Sola. On 10 April, the Home Fleet is bombed as OTL with HMS Rodney hit (bomb does not explode) and HMS Gurkha sunk. Home Fleet withdraws further out to sea as OTL. Opinion in neutral capitals is harsh on Great Britain, especially in the United States. On 8 May 1940, Winston Churchill is forced to take the blame and resigns as First Lord.

On 15 April, heavy cruiser KMS Lutzow, previously sold to the USSR on 11 February 1940, is "accidentally" grounded in the Weser River by the German company hired to tow it to Leningrad. The Soviets are informed that refloating and drydocking to inspect for damage will take another month.

On 10 May 1940, the Germans invade the USSR with the pretext being the Soviet establishment of bases and troop concentration in Lithuania the previous October violated the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact. Army Group B (OTL OB) is pushing from East Prussia into Lithuania and Northern Belorussia with an axis of advances on Leningrad and Minsk. Army Group A pushes into eastern Poland with an Axis of advance eventually shifting towards the Ukraine. As a reward for slices of Slovakia obtained the previous year, Admiral Horthy is are pressured into providing First Hungarian Army to augment Army Group A. Army Group C is left in place to guard Germany's frontier with France. Germany begins supplying the Finnish Army, and by the end of June the Finns are able to resume fighting the Soviets.

The Soviets are ill-prepared. The command structure is still very weak after Stalin's purges, and although Finland was subdued two months previously, the severe losses sustained in doing so have left the Soviet armed forces in a deep crisis of confidence. Coordinated German ground and air units are able to inflict a series of severe defeats on the Soviets, and by the beginning of August all supply links to Leningrad are cut off, and six weeks later the city surrenders. Army Group B refits and turns its attention toward Moscow.

Hitler's intuition (and I doubt his strategic analysis went much deeper than intuition) is the British and French will do nothing as he drives deeper into the Soviet Union. He is correct, throughout the phony war Allied political and military leaders concentrated more on coningency plans against Stalin than Hitler. Such planning included sending an expeditionary force the help Finland, or bombing Baku oil fields from airfields in Syria. Within those fiercely anti-Communist political and military circles there is no desire to help the Russians at all; they are getting just desserts for stabbing Poland in the back and invading Finland. It is commomly admitted Hitler is just following his manefesto in "Mein Kampf" for Lebensraum in the East. It is now obvious Poland cannot be redeemed, and Chamberlain is quite able to delude himself that an honorable peace is possible with Herr Hitler, and another World War I scale bloodletting of British manpower need not take place. French leaders are not far behind, and an amicable peace conference is concluded in late September 1940.

The Italians and Japanese were not privy to Hitler's plans, but both join the anti-Communist crusade the Japanese tee up Nomonhan Part II and an Italian Corps is sent to Army Group A.

Hitler had not been subject to the intoxicating effects of lightning campaigns in Scandinavia, the West and the Balkans in 1940-41, and is somewhat more cautious. As the temperatures drop in the autumn, the Axis armies to onto the defensive and prepare for the fierce winter. The advance on Moscow and the eastern Ukraine will resume in the spring of 1941. It is a campaign that neither Stalin, nor the concept of a Soviet Union will survive.

OK, this is my best shot; Naysayers - have at it !!
Pretty good effort.
Chamberlain was very ill at the time he resigned OTL and was very anti-Hitler, so better he resigns after the Norway mix up. So the challenge is to have Churchill temporarily unavailable (train derailment or crash landing would work). Commons rejects Halifax as he is a Lord, so acting PM who is even more anticommunist than anti fascist is sworn in as a compromise. He alienates the French who lose faith in the British and Laval and others get enough control of France to force a settlement.

The problem here is that by the time Germany thinls of going west France has reequipped its airforce, built and issued 25mm and 47mm AT guns, upgunned the Hotchkiss with the AT capable 37mm gun and has a few units of Somua S40 with two man turrets. All S35, Char B and some Hotchkiss now have radios. All that's missing is Belgium and Netherlands on board, but with Laval in a position of influences this looks likely to remain off the books. With this much more formidable force a German attack is unlikely, and there's no French drive to attack Germany until it's too late.
 
Thing's that would have very easily been a war winner for the axis power's,

1 Much greater use of mario zippermayr's vacuum weapon's,

2 Retool the prewar light/heavy industrie's useing a fordism layout/mind set and retool the 1939-1942 war time light/heavy industrie's in the occupied territorie's,

3 Greater use of konrad zuse's super computer's for aeronautical development's and cryptanalysi's,

4 Not cancelling the development of rheinmetall borsig ag's model 1940 electrostatic proximity fuze in july 1940,

5 Vastly much greater use of lanz bulldog d9506 tractor's/crawler's in the army as well as in the farming/agriculture industrie's that then free's several million's of able bodied men/women for ues elsewhere and to fully replace horse's in the army,

6 Prewar three/four/six/ten wheel enigma's with irregular stepping in both direction's/more wheel turnover notche's/letter's encoded as itself,

7 Prewar discovery of the matzen oil field,

8 A fully mobilized wartime economy with three eight hour work shift's a day for seven day's a week in the light/heavy industrie's befor 1944 preferably in 1939,

9 Vastly much greater use of mass employing women in the light/heavy industrie's/farming and agriculture industrie's/auxiliarie's/home front that then free's several million's of able bodied men for the army's at the front,

10 Much greater investment funding prewar in to locomotive's/railroad car's/rail line's/other rail resource's/railway troop's as well as during wartime,
----------------------------------------------------------------------
11 Properly thorough prewar testing of torpedo contact/magnetic detonator's/t2 torpedoe's and torpedo depth keeping device's,

12 Take the captured dutch o 21 class submarine's snorkel and install it on all uboat's befor 1944 preferably in 1940,

13 Operation's nordlicht/gertrude/fischreiher never happen freeing up erich manstein's one hundred sixty four thousand strong eleventh army and both fourth panzer/third romanian army's as well as over half a million men/logistical supply tail unit's for operation edelweis's,

14 Japan goe's with operation kantokuen instead of the south plan.
 
*Sept 1938 - Polish annexations from the Munich agreement cause severe loss of faith and support for Poland by the Allies. Despite intense diplomacy, the damage is done.

*Mar 1939 - Hitler completes the conquest of Czechloslovakia

*Aug 1939 - Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact stuns Europe

*Sep 1939 - Poland falls with no Allied declaration of war, leaving the cryptanalysts to be captured by the Germans. Recognizing the potential advantage they represent as well as weaknesses in their own systems, Germany declares them Aryans and drafts them into military (intelligence) service.

*Dec 1939 - Winter war is even more brutal than OTL with several field grade officers killed including Zhukov and Chuikov but Finland comes to the table. Stalin decides to continue the Purge as the Red Army is almost politically controlled by the Party at this time.

*May 1940 - France is shocked (shocked!) by the sudden German blitz that takes Paris even faster than OTL. In a few isolated cases (especially the defenses of Albeville and Verdun) French generals are despondent as they feel the Germans are predicting their every move. Japan annexes French Indochina in all but name.

*September 1940 - Prime Minister Halifax makes peace in the West as hundreds of invasion barges organize at half a dozen ports. It is a ruse - the naval support is not there and the barges are barely seaworthy but the Royal Air Force is largely broken after the Home Chain is destroyed. Trade resumes within the month as Hitler plans for Barbarossa.

*May 1941 - Barbarossa kicks off on time and with better supplied German armies

*October 1941 - Moscow falls early in the month as no British or American aid is available. Turkey joins the Axis and Japan invades from Vladivostok.

*December 1941 - Tokyo elects to pursue action against Russia instead of the United States.

*April 1942 - Treaty of Omsk splits the USSR at 66 degrees latitude fron the Arctic to the Raj with Japan getting future claims on Afghanistan and the entire Raj. Germany begins pacifying its new territories while Japan completes the conquest of China and southeast Asia.

*July 1959 - Operation Sea Poodle launches the largest invasion in history as German tunnel-boring machines complete a dozen tunnels under the Channel as barges land and staged deep cover agents begin the invasion of the Western Alliance (UK, US, Canada, Australia, NZ, Brazil, Mexico, etc). Their naval fleet is not aware of recent North American developments as several Avro Arrow fighters greet their He 555 counterparts in gruesome combat...
 
Question: it looks like there's a channel from New York Bay between Staten Island and Brooklyn. How close to Manhattan could a u-boat get while submerged or mostly submerged?



As tight as the channel is not very far. I would forsee running into the ground very easily.
 
As tight as the channel is not very far. I would forsee running into the ground very easily.
Okay, thanks. I was using nukemap to see how close you'd have to get for a fatman-sized device to do some serious damage.
What would be the softest east coast target within range of a sub-dropped 10kt nuke?
 
Pretty good effort.
Chamberlain was very ill at the time he resigned OTL and was very anti-Hitler, so better he resigns after the Norway mix up. So the challenge is to have Churchill temporarily unavailable (train derailment or crash landing would work). Commons rejects Halifax as he is a Lord, so acting PM who is even more anticommunist than anti fascist is sworn in as a compromise. He alienates the French who lose faith in the British and Laval and others get enough control of France to force a settlement.

The problem here is that by the time Germany thinls of going west France has reequipped its airforce, built and issued 25mm and 47mm AT guns, upgunned the Hotchkiss with the AT capable 37mm gun and has a few units of Somua S40 with two man turrets. All S35, Char B and some Hotchkiss now have radios. All that's missing is Belgium and Netherlands on board, but with Laval in a position of influences this looks likely to remain off the books. With this much more formidable force a German attack is unlikely, and there's no French drive to attack Germany until it's too late.
Would have been Halifax if no Churchill.
 
There's a narrow sequence of events where you might be able to get the Soviet Union to capitulate if the Germans take Moscow and Stalingrad, followed by a white peace with Britain (where the Axis still probably loses all of its African/Middle Eastern holdings) while the US never enters the European theater. Even then, the Germans will have to deal with endless partisan warfare from the Vistula to the Urals.

Japan winning? I can't help you.
 
For Germany, 2 things:
1) take Moscow in 1941, and
2) don't declare war on America

For Japan, they lost as soon as they attacked America. The only way for Japan to win post-Pearl Harbor would be for their entire military to be staffed with military geniuses on the level of Hannibal or Napoleon or Alexander, who just keep on annihilating American fleets one after the other until America gives up.
 
Okay, thanks. I was using nukemap to see how close you'd have to get for a fatman-sized device to do some serious damage.
What would be the softest east coast target within range of a sub-dropped 10kt nuke?
Put it on a cargo ship that is disguised as an ally or neutral ship?
 
On 10 May 1940, the Germans invade the USSR
Naysayer here. The absolutely blinding red flag here is this entire concept. The Wehrmacht and German war effort has incredibly less resources and manpower available to them. They have a hostile bloc breathing down their neck in the west which requires attention. They have less combat experience and less equipment. They adopt a much slower approach which allows the Red Army to easily pull back and avoid major encirclements. There is a snowballs chance in hell they even come close to winning this scenario. It seems to be a blessing for the Red Army because all the major advantages of OTL 1941 for the Germans are taken away. I’m not even sure they’ll have a solid enough oil supply to sustain prolonged combat operations in the USSR.
 
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