With a POD after 1970, your challenge is to find a POD that can either keep the Shah in power by 1979 or at least resulting in a constitutional monarchy by then.
That can do the trick (that or have Khomeini die before 1978), but the problem is when he should die; though I have a feeling it should be just before the Black Friday massacre.Perhaps have Mohammed Reza bite the dust early.
Sounds cool, but I still would imagine that Khomeini would still be a influential force ITTL, just not leading the country.I think the best way is for the Shah to listen to his advisers concerning what to do with the oil windfall from the '73 oil crisis. His advisers said most of the money should be saved because the windfall would not last forever. New industrialization projects should begin, but they had to be limited in order that 1) the economy not overheat and produce inflation, and 2) when oil prices declined the projects started could still be completed. The Shah overruled them. He felt he had a once in a lifetime chance to propel Iran into the ranks of developed nations before he'd died. The advisers ended up being right. Inflation skyrockedted, and by 1977 the Shah was forced to enact austerity measures to fight inflation which caused a different kind of problem. The economic difficulties in Iran really underminded the Shah's rule and turned some of his supporters against him.
If the economy didn't overheat and Iranians enjoyed good (or at least stable) economic times in the late seventies, he might have survived.
Of course, the other big problem is what to do with Khomeini. Without Khomeini, the Iranian Revolution might have produced a normal democracy, not an Islamic Republic.
The Shah made a lot of critical mistakes in the 1973-1978 period, probably fueled by a belief his oil wealth could do everything, and antagonizing ordinary Iranians by opulent displays. There's lot of room for improvement, but I think the only thing that is needed is for the Shah to limp past the late seventies before he dies so that constitutional monarchy can be established after he dies. I think the economy is the key thing here, but I admit it may not be enough.
Before his triumphant return after the revolution was basically already underway, Khomenei was in exile in Iraq (he had been since his role in opposing the white revolution). Khomenei was both hated and feared by the Shah and his government, because he was very popular with the masses and had supporters who were apparently willing to, for example, rise up in a multi-day riot that killed hundreds of people when he was imprisoned, or assassinate the Prime Minister of Iran for slapping the ayatollah.Sounds cool, but I still would imagine that Khomeini would still be a influential force ITTL, just not leading the country.