AHC: Austrian Empire collapses in 1850s-70s

  • Thread starter Deleted member 67076
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Deleted member 67076

Is there any way to get Austria (or Austria Hungary, is one starts late enough) to collapse in the period between 1850 and 1870? If so, what effects does that have? Does Italian Unification go smoother? Do the Ottomans ramp up the Tanzimat? Does Russia and/or Prussia make a grab for land?
 

Deleted member 67076

Necroing this for a bit to ask about the plausibility of a massive Hungarian revolt and or intervention from say Russia or Prussia that can end up dismembering the Habsburg empire?
 
Maybe. Prussia would want Austria gone, or weakened at least, to allow for them to form Germany. I don't know why Russia would want in on a collapsed Austria except for some lands in the East like Romania or something.
 

birdboy2000

Banned
Russia did save Austria during OTL's 1848... although that was more about crushing liberalism than about geopolitical interests.

Russia very much does not want a Polish state coming out of Austria's part of the partition in any implosion, and if anything wants a Ukranian state even less, so it will probably invade and annex Galicia-Lodomeria to prevent that. Apart from that, I don't see them doing much - provided, of course, that Hungary sets up a proper monarchy instead of an 1848-style republic.
 
If before the war of Crimea, not necessarily an Imperial Austrian fall will necessary favour an Italian reunification but probably obstacle it, as without Austria there will not be need for Napoleon III to create a unified Italian cushion state - and Nappy in truth wasn't in favour of a full unification but only of the North of Italy. Naturally, after 1861 but still prior of 1866 Italy had all to gain from an Austrian collapse and France all to lose, because with the eventuality of a disgraced Austria the idea of the Great Germany could take life and Bismarck will surely concede to Italy the irredent territories in exchange of an anti-France alliance (above all for Rome).

In substance: until the mid 1850, an Austrian fall IMO will not bring advantage to the Italian unification, more later yes.
 
Necroing this for a bit to ask about the plausibility of a massive Hungarian revolt and or intervention from say Russia or Prussia that can end up dismembering the Habsburg empire?

That would be very ironic, seeing how Russia crushed the last one on behalf of Austria in 1848. (talk about massive regret all around)

Kossuth is still around in that timeframe...apparently he was busy trying to organize a Hungarian liberation legion alongside Italy during Italy's unification war in 1859. Now, Prussia was in danger of joining the Austrians in that war, and Britain and Russia were pointedly neutral and doing their best to keep Prussia neutral as well, but maybe something can still be done to change the situation and allow Kossuth's legion to enter Hungary with the support of at least one major power.
 
Russia did save Austria during OTL's 1848... although that was more about crushing liberalism than about geopolitical interests.
Keeping liberalism down was the main interest of most European rulers in 1848, yes. However, in this special case there was an additional reason for Russia to assist the Austrians...:

Russia very much does not want a Polish state coming out of Austria's part of the partition in any implosion, and if anything wants a Ukranian state even less, so it will probably invade and annex Galicia-Lodomeria to prevent that.
Interestingly, the reasoning of the three powers that were holding the Polish lands had long been that keeping these lands seperated was the best way of suppressing widespread revolts and a subsequent revival of the Polish nationstate. Uniting at least huge parts of the Polish lands under one country -in this scenario, Russia- would have given a boost to Polish nationalism, and therefore a higher chance of revolt. Because of this, Russia didn't really have much interest in Galicia-Lodomeria, and was content with Austria(-Hungary) holding it.
 
It was certainly possible that Rudolph could have collapsed it, especially if some of the theories about his talks with the Hungarians are true.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Deleted member 67076

Keeping liberalism down was the main interest of most European rulers in 1848, yes. However, in this special case there was an additional reason for Russia to assist the Austrians...:

Interestingly, the reasoning of the three powers that were holding the Polish lands had long been that keeping these lands seperated was the best way of suppressing widespread revolts and a subsequent revival of the Polish nationstate. Uniting at least huge parts of the Polish lands under one country -in this scenario, Russia- would have given a boost to Polish nationalism, and therefore a higher chance of revolt. Because of this, Russia didn't really have much interest in Galicia-Lodomeria, and was content with Austria(-Hungary) holding it.
Would Russia be fine if the Hungarians receive Galicia in the ensuing peace talks?
 

birdboy2000

Banned
Keeping liberalism down was the main interest of most European rulers in 1848, yes. However, in this special case there was an additional reason for Russia to assist the Austrians...:


Interestingly, the reasoning of the three powers that were holding the Polish lands had long been that keeping these lands seperated was the best way of suppressing widespread revolts and a subsequent revival of the Polish nationstate. Uniting at least huge parts of the Polish lands under one country -in this scenario, Russia- would have given a boost to Polish nationalism, and therefore a higher chance of revolt. Because of this, Russia didn't really have much interest in Galicia-Lodomeria, and was content with Austria(-Hungary) holding it.

Well, yes, but if the nationalities are all breaking off I think they'd consider annexation preferable to letting it gain independence out of the implosion.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Russia joins France and Italy in the 1859 War

Russia joins Prussia and Italy in the 1866 War

Russia decides to take out Austria during the Franco-Prussian War of 1870

Assume that Russia takes it out on the ingrate (especially in the 1866 scenario) Maybe, give Prussia the whole inside the Holy Roman Empire, Russia everything outside Probably not that much but more than enough to make Austria so weak that it could no longer hold Hungary
 
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