AHC: Austria-Hungary side-steps WWI

[durante]

Welcome to the AH Challenge where everything is made up and the points don't matter.

I'm imagining a conflagration more or less along the lines of OTL but with Austria-Hungary not involved (presumably because FF is alive and calling the shots, but this is not necessary).

My rules are (the rules don't matter, give me whatever scenario you want. Think of this as like "Bonus Points for"...but I'm not giving points.)

-later the PoD the better
-BP for having war break out between 1914 and 1917
-both Russia and Germany enter the war, I initially assumed opposing sides but it's not a requirement. There should be at least 2 of the major powers on each side (of Russia, Turkey, Britain, Italy, and France). USA and Japan can be involved but are not required.
-Either side can win, either side can lose, but I *do* assume that Russia going to war with Germany and the Ottomans simultaneously between 1914 and 1917 ends up with the Russian revolution.

My own personal scenario is what I like to call "A Damned Fool Thing in the Aegean" which involves FF surviving the assassination attempt, and then war breaking out more or less along the same lines in 1915 or 1916 with the Ottomans playing Austria-Hungary and Greece playing Serbia. (Turkey & Bulgaria decide to go for a 3rd Balkan war during the narrow window of Turkish naval supremacy, expecting that if Russia were to back Greece, Germany gets involved to protect her investments and the Berlin-Baghdad railway). I could imagine that in this circumstance, there are small possibilities that Britain stays out entirely or at the beginning (or even sides with Germans).

Interested to see what we can come up with, and my intention, I should advise, is, with proper crediting and permission, to attempt to use this as part of an Alt-WWI timeline

Cheers

 

[durante]

@Aghasverov @Fehérvári @Nivek

Apologies to anyone else, seems like I'd round up the usual suspects

 

[Grey Wolf]

Well, if you want to look at flashpoints?

1 - Albania
It's unstable, falling apart, and everyone has an interest there - Greece, Serbia, Montenegro, Italy and of course Austria-Hungary, but you could posit a case for where war occurs and they stand back to watch everyone else. Of course, the king is German but as he's run away it might not matter enough to Wilhelm II to get involved about this

2. Dobruja
Bulgaria is not happy at losing this to Romania in the 2nd Balkan War. Ferdinand may be Foxy but he made the mistake in WW1 of backing the losers, so he might again make rash decisions

3, Bosnia
Well, it's not going away!

As with OTL, you need a flashpoint to spark that then brings the others in. The problem you have in trying to avoid Austrian involvement is the Triple Alliance - the Habsburgs basically rely on good relations with Germany to keep them upright. Italy could break away, but the idea that the Habsburgs would is harder to achieve.

 

[ahmedali]

I see the Italian-Ottoman war as a flashpoint

Austria planned to attack Italy to help the Turks against Italy and the Balkan countries

Russia, despite their discontent with Austria, supported the Ottomans against the Balkan Pact

This could end in World War I between France, Britain, the Ottomans, Russia and Austria against Germany, Italy and the Balkan states

 

[Aghasverov]

Well, if you want to look at flashpoints?

1 - Albania
It's unstable, falling apart, and everyone has an interest there - Greece, Serbia, Montenegro, Italy and of course Austria-Hungary, but you could posit a case for where war occurs and they stand back to watch everyone else. Of course, the king is German but as he's run away it might not matter enough to Wilhelm II to get involved about this

2. Dobruja
Bulgaria is not happy at losing this to Romania in the 2nd Balkan War. Ferdinand may be Foxy but he made the mistake in WW1 of backing the losers, so he might again make rash decisions

3, Bosnia
Well, it's not going away!

As with OTL, you need a flashpoint to spark that then brings the others in. The problem you have in trying to avoid Austrian involvement is the Triple Alliance - the Habsburgs basically rely on good relations with Germany to keep them upright. Italy could break away, but the idea that the Habsburgs would is harder to achieve.

I agree, it's difficult to see how A-H can sit this one out, given the Alliance, and with FF at the helm (or soon to be, at least), particularly given the Archduke's close personal relations with Der Kaiser...

Of the 3 possible flashpoints you names, I'd say Albania is the one most likely to flame up out of control... like you said, Serbs, Montenegrins, Greeks, Italians all wanted a slice of that pie...
Bosnia... well, a conflict in Bosnia would undoubtedly involve A-H...
Dobruja? I doubt it... losing the Cadrilater to Romania was a black eye for Bulgaria, but really apart from a sense of wounded pride, it wasn't worth that much... the Bulgarians had a pretty sizable list of grievances after the Balkan Wars, and I'd imagine Macedonia was closer to the top of the list than Dobruja....

 

[lukedalton]

I agree, it's difficult to see how A-H can sit this one out, given the Alliance, and with FF at the helm (or soon to be, at least), particularly given the Archduke's close personal relations with Der Kaiser...

Of the 3 possible flashpoints you names, I'd say Albania is the one most likely to flame up out of control... like you said, Serbs, Montenegrins, Greeks, Italians all wanted a slice of that pie...
Bosnia... well, a conflict in Bosnia would undoubtedly involve A-H...
Dobruja? I doubt it... losing the Cadrilater to Romania was a black eye for Bulgaria, but really apart from a sense of wounded pride, it wasn't worth that much... the Bulgarians had a pretty sizable list of grievances after the Balkan Wars, and I'd imagine Macedonia was closer to the top of the list than Dobruja....

The problem with Albania is the fact that's too important strategically speaking for both Italy and A-H; if Rome is poised to get control of the place Wien will answer. In OTL A-H agreed to italian control of Albania in exchange for neutrality due to a mix of necessity, german pressure and the fact that they have no intention to respect any treaty signed with Rome

 

[Fehérvári]

What about the Bosnian Crisis poisoning the relations not between Austria-Hungary and Russia, but instead between Russia and Britain?

Austria-Hungary provides its support to Russian demands concerning the Straits more vocally than OTL, but the notion still fails due to strong British opposition. A-H still annexes Bosnia-Hercegovina, but ITTL noone really could claim that A-H didn't hold up its end of the bargain, so Russian frustration is aimed at Britain instead.

With better relations with Russia, the Austro-Hungarians feel more secure concerning their position and thus remain less reliant on German diplomatic support.

Meanwhile, the coldening relation between Russia and Britain affects the British stances conerning France and Germany as well. For that reason, when the Agadir Crisis breaks out, the British maintain a more neutral stance. Emboldened by the British indifference, the German demands for French retreat from Morrocco (or for large compensation) become more and more threatening. Despite the lack of British support, the French don't budge, so the conflict rapidly escalates. With the mentality of "now or never", Germany sends an ultimatum to France and declares war upon its rejection. Austria-Hungary soon declares neutrality in the conflict, but unlike it however, Russia does involve itself and declares war on Germany.

Germany doesn't execute the Schlieffen plan ITTL, so Britain stays out. The shorter frontlines make actions on the ground more limited, however naval warfare is more intense.

 

[Aghasverov]

What about the Bosnian Crisis poisoning the relations not between Austria-Hungary and Russia, but instead between Russia and Britain?

Austria-Hungary provides its support to Russian demands concerning the Straits more vocally than OTL, but the notion still fails due to strong British opposition. A-H still annexes Bosnia-Hercegovina, but ITTL noone really could claim that A-H didn't hold up its end of the bargain, so Russian frustration is aimed at Britain instead.

With better relations with Russia, the Austro-Hungarians feel more secure concerning their position and thus remain less reliant on German diplomatic support.

Meanwhile, the coldening relation between Russia and Britain affects the British stances conerning France and Germany as well. For that reason, when the Agadir Crisis breaks out, the British maintain a more neutral stance. Emboldened by the British indifference, the German demands for French retreat from Morrocco (or for large compensation) become more and more threatening. Despite the lack of British support, the French don't budge, so the conflict rapidly escalates. With the mentality of "now or never", Germany sends an ultimatum to France and declares war upon its rejection. Austria-Hungary soon declares neutrality in the conflict, but unlike it however, Russia does involve itself and declares war on Germany.

Germany doesn't execute the Schlieffen plan ITTL, so Britain stays out. The shorter frontlines make actions on the ground more limited, however naval warfare is more intense.

Interesting scenario....

Yeah, I'm beginning to think that anytime after the OTL Balkan Wars is a bit late.... Move the POD back before the Agadir Incident and Bosnia Crisis, and the possibility of A-H being able to sit back and watch with the popcorn increases

 

[durante]

Well first off thanks for everyone's input so far.

@Fehérvári , that is a very interesting scenario which I will take some time to chew on.

The problem you have in trying to avoid Austrian involvement is the Triple Alliance - the Habsburgs basically rely on good relations with Germany to keep them upright. Italy could break away, but the idea that the Habsburgs would is harder to achieve.

I agree, it's difficult to see how A-H can sit this one out, given the Alliance, and with FF at the helm (or soon to be, at least), particularly given the Archduke's close personal relations with Der Kaiser...

So. Can we mess with these personal relationships?

Fehervari provided an excellent scenario where Austria is less reliant on Germany, with an "early" PoD (it's a great PoD and it's really not that early at all, given the context).

Maybe it is too late after the Balkan wars - the only *real* unknown at that point is if FF and Sophie both survive Sarajevo, FF was apparently adamant about keeping AH out of a war with Russia which he believed would end the Empire. If he truly held this conviction, could it draw him and Willy into personal conflict in 1914? If Franz feels he is being pushed into a devastating conflict against his will to serve German interests...could he start changing his mind about the Triple Alliance?

I suppose another way to have Austria back out of WWI is if both Italy and Russia declare themselves on the same side (against Germany and who ever else) before Austria makes a decision? If they knew the Triple Alliance was already broken, and they'd be facing enemies on every front, surely it'd be easier to remain neutral?

 

[Comte de Geneve]

And I'm imagining that a conflagration more or less along the lines of OTL and more or less in the same time frame as OTL but with Austria-Hungary not involved is essentially impossible (not ASB). Same time frame would be something like 1904 to 1918. As long as the existing alliances are intact and the major powder kegs are in the Balkans, A-H is in it, FF or not. Now FF may dampen some powder kegs, especially if he follows a 'no war with Russia' policy, but if the balloon goes up then A-H is in it. By the end of the decade alliance and powder kegs may be evolving differently.

 

[durante]

https://ww1.habsburger.net/en/chapters/franz-ferdinand-and-his-political-programme

Does anyone know where I can find the 1911 Programme for the Succession Franz Ferdinand published, mentioned in this article?

The article implies he had a series of moves set up to "deal with the Hungarians" before he swore an oath to uphold the Crown of St Stephen.

It seems to imply that it was creating the Croatian Crown but no specifics.

Also, I translated the 1850 Kremsier Consitution of Austria into English if anyone wants a copy, for some reason. (What kind of weirdo would read a Consitution from 1850 that was never implemented? I mean, me, of course, but who else?)

@Comte de Geneve if you have a scenario for the end of the decade or the 1920s, I'd love to hear it.

 

[raharris1973]

Despite the lack of British support, the French don't budge, so the conflict rapidly escalates. With the mentality of "now or never", Germany sends an ultimatum to France and declares war upon its rejection. Austria-Hungary soon declares neutrality in the conflict, but unlike it however, Russia does involve itself and declares war on Germany.

Germany doesn't execute the Schlieffen plan ITTL, so Britain stays out. The shorter frontlines make actions on the ground more limited, however naval warfare is more intense.

Hmm, so German strategy is expeditionary warfare on the scene of Morocco and Africa itself, plus a narrow frontal push on the French border alone, and it will be compelled to do defensive operations against Russia.

Austria-Hungary and Britain start off neutral. I imagine Italy starts off neutral. - It can easily use the fact that Germany started the war with an ultimatum as excuse to slip out of alliance commitments. But, on the other hand, Italy might judge the German assault of France a rare opportunity to gain Tunisia at a minimum at French expense, if not more territories, like Corsica, Nice, Savoy, and Djibouti - taking advantage of the German assault on Lorraine, and German expeditionary operations, as a distraction. Additionally, Italy might judge that Austria's aloofness provides Rome a rare opportunity to become Germany's favorite ally. Italy is also not vulnerable to direct Russian retaliation.

But still, less risky for Italy is neutrality in the Franco-German war, with Italy possibly pursuing its own private war against the Ottoman Empire for Libya, and possibly other spoils.

I imagine Britain can keep its neutrality if German gains on the French front are kept within reasonable bounds like east of the Moselle or Meuse river and certainly Paris, no total destruction of the French fleet or blockade of French coast, and if German gains in Africa aren't getting out of hand fast - which they should not be. Indeed, the Germans should be at an overall disadvantage there.

The Russians I imagine are in the war against Germany not so much because they covet specific German territory, or fear a specific German threat, but for grand global strategic and economic reasons of wanting to keep their partnership with France afloat and the sweet, sweet loan money flowing. I could imagine, especially after likely early Russian defeats, the Russians being almost disappointed that the Austrians aren't coming out to play. The Russians will probably hope for an early honorable peace, bur one that can happen without France being disappointed.

By not helping out Germany, Austria is taking a big risk, in case it is ever in danger, that Germany won't help it out.

 

[M79]

I see the Italian-Ottoman war as a flashpoint

Austria planned to attack Italy to help the Turks against Italy and the Balkan countries

Russia, despite their discontent with Austria, supported the Ottomans against the Balkan Pact

This could end in World War I between France, Britain, the Ottomans, Russia and Austria against Germany, Italy and the Balkan states

There's a fugly World War I - Russia as a Central Power against the Balkan Pact, Italy, France, the UK, and the rest of the Commonwealth. AH probably does *much* better here and may end up with a sizeable chunk of the Western Balkans in the process with Albania going to AH, western Thrace and southeastern Bulgaria speaking Turkish again.

I'm not even sure France would get involved given the situation, but if they do look for schitzels and kassespatzle with a liter or two of weissbier in Paris at some point.

 

[ahmedali]

There's a fugly World War I - Russia as a Central Power against the Balkan Pact, Italy, France, the UK, and the rest of the Commonwealth. AH probably does *much* better here and may end up with a sizeable chunk of the Western Balkans in the process with Albania going to AH, western Thrace and southeastern Bulgaria speaking Turkish again.

I'm not even sure France would get involved given the situation, but if they do look for schitzels and kassespatzle with a liter or two of weissbier in Paris at some point.

So basically, the Emperors (Austria, Russia and Germany) and the Ottomans were allied against Italy, Britain, France and the Balkans (Netherlands and Belgium would be members of the Entente because the original Scheleffen Plan had not been modified in 1911)


This alliance is basically the dream alliance of Wilhelm II and it will be an easy victory for the Central Powers

(The Ottomans could offer to divide Iran between them and the Russians, restore Bosnia from Austria, and annex the Balkan states in exchange for Austria's annexation of Italian lands.)

Albania is still Ottoman in 1911, so there is a possibility that the Ottomans will recover all the losses of 1878 without Dobruja and Romania.

 

[Mikestone8]

I'm imagining a conflagration more or less along the lines of OTL but with Austria-Hungary not involved

This would seem to imply abandonment of the Schlieffen Plan.

AIUI this assumed that A/H could resist he Russian while Germany concentrated on knocking out Franee. So it wd seem they need A/H in from the beginning if they are to go to war at all.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

I'm not sure it's possible with such a close PoD. I believe we have to go back to the 19th century to get a neutral Austria. Perhaps if 1848 goes differently and a federal Danubian Monarchy is established that positions itself as a big Switzerland and stays (armed) neutral due to a very delicate balance with ethnicities within the realm as someone would always veto aggressive foreign policy.

 

[durante]

This would seem to imply abandonment of the Schlieffen Plan.

AIUI this assumed that A/H could resist he Russian while Germany concentrated on knocking out Franee. So it wd seem they need A/H in from the beginning if they are to go to war at all.

AIUI?

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

The best WW1 without Austria POD is the complete Ottoman collapse in the First Balkan War (Bulgaria conquers Constantinople).

This forces the World Powers to intervene far more directly, whether it be to save the Ottomans, or to get a piece of the pie at the last minute.

Austria-Hungary would have no beef in said conflict and would love to see the Balkan League and everyone else weakening themselves.

 

[Aghasverov]

AIUI?

"As I Understand It"

 

[raharris1973]

The best WW1 without Austria POD is the complete Ottoman collapse in the First Balkan War (Bulgaria conquers Constantinople).

This forces the World Powers to intervene far more directly, whether it be to save the Ottomans, or to get a piece of the pie at the last minute.

Austria-Hungary would have no beef in said conflict and would love to see the Balkan League and everyone else weakening themselves.

I see the obvious pathways for the Balkan states, Russia, Britain, Italy, and France to all carve slices or deploy support for the Ottos here. -- But what's the German angle? And how are they much more invested or better at it than the Austrians?