AHC: Austria-Hungary in 2010

Probably not much; he'd likely be only a figure head with less power than the British monarchy. I suppose though he would be viewed as another Franz Josef. Nit pick, he wouldn't be in the 88th year of his reign, as Franz Ferdinand would be in power for several years, then his father, who ITTL would have had the stress of being deposed from power inducing his heart attack. Maybe 40-50 years of reign though.

Less power than the British monarchy? Hardly imaginable. You cannot have a negative amount of power. :D

On the contrary, I believe that Otto would be among the more influential (rather than powerful) remaining European monarchs simply due to the high probability that His Majesty would still be needed in a multiethnic, yet democratic United Danubian Monarchy to mediate and to do a little bit more than to represent in order to keep things in order.

When compared to Spain, Sweden or the Netherlands, even to the UK, even an Austria-Hungary which is alive and well in 2010 needs the monarch as an integrating force and is less imaginable as a republic than the other examples.

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If allowed to die in bed, Franz Ferdinand might well live into the 1930s or even 40s. With good health, Karl I would reign until at least 1970 (taking the old age of his son and of Franz Josef into account, I suppose that Habsburg guys have a good chance to live quite long unless executed, shot, stabbed etc.). So Otto's reign would be long (as usual in Austria-Hungary), but not to an extreme.

By now, there is a high probability that, like in his OTL ruling of the "family", he would have stepped down in favour of his son.

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My thoughts on the odds of a survival:

- WW1, if happening, must not last into 1918; a CP victory might lead to overextension and is probably not the best of possible worlds; an early defeat which leads to a mini-monarchy consisting of e.g. OTL Austrian republic, OTL's 1942-Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, German-speaking South Tyrol and Czechoslovakia might be just the optimal trimming and be a blessing in disguise.

- if an analogue to WW2 occurs, neutrality would be perfect. Austria-Hungary must NOT be in a defeated axis, and a being part of a winning Axis would not be helpful either IMHO.

- in any case, there must be no Sovjet dominance over Eastern Europe

- We do not need to discuss the need for gradual internal reform. By the way, I do not deem a putschlike reformation of Transleithania (i.e. the ruling political clique in Budapest) as a military matter which should make a German intervention even remotely necessary.
 
The Hungarian problem can be solved in quite a simple manner: play Hungarians against each other. Promise to the Hungarian aristocracy that their personal wealth and estates and social standing will be protected if they agree for the Hungarians in general to take a hit in their overall influence in the Empire. Basically the Hungarian aristocracy should be bribed into betraying what most Hungarians at the time believed was their national interest. I don't think that Hungarians as a whole could have been reasoned with at the time or explained that they would stand to loose much more if they continued in being obstinate. For the Habsburgs to ally themselves with the majority of the Kingdom of Hungary's populations (i.e. the non-Magyars) would have worked and did work in 1848-1849, but why go to war when they could fix the problem with "divide and conquer"?

But what if Rudolf didn't commit suicide / wasn't assassinated? What kind of an emperor would he make?

And what do you think of the possibility of a sperate peace for A-H in 1917 that would leave it intact? Though if that happened, it would put a whole new spin on Hitler's "stabbed in the back" theory afterwards... I imagine a TL where AH makes a separate peace in 1917, manages to survive and reform, dodges (at least somewhat the economic crisis) and is much better off than Germany in the 20's and 30's and is thus attacked by Hitler and ends up as one of the major Allied powers in WWII is the best scenario of AH's survival. Because after WWII, it can request the majority German-speaking and economically important Silesia (the Allies didn't know what to do with Silesia -- they just knew that Germany shouldn't have it; and they gave it to Poland as compensation for what they've lost in the East, no one had on their mind the historical reasons for Silesia being Polish, i.e. that it started as a Polish land hundreds of years ago). And AH can also receive part of the German deportations from the East. Of course all those Germans would probably need to de-Nazify and assimilate into the Austrian identity.
 
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I can't see AH surviving with the power still in the hands of the dual monarchy.

True, the dual monarchy would've hit a rough patch either in 1917 (if there was no Great War) or 1927 (if there was) where the Empire's choices would be reform or die.

However, if the Grand Duke had not been assassinated, he was looking at reforming AH to become the United States of Greater Austria. Perhaps in this form, AH could remain one country and survive until this time.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_of_Greater_Austria

This ... not so true. While the proposal for the USGA was made by a man in Franz Ferdinand's orbit, FF himself moved away from the idea to increased centralization (ending the Dual Monarchy) as a temporary measure to force the Empire back together before any devolution could be considered. A dictatorship from the centre, I believe FF referred to it as.

It was a reasonable enough plan. Franz Ferdinand himself didn't expect it to last all that long (but as long as necessary) and expressed an opinion that his reign would only last long enough for the initial stabilization. Whether it would've worked would depend on a number of factors.
 
While the proposal for the USGA was made by a man in Franz Ferdinand's orbit, FF himself moved away from the idea to increased centralization (ending the Dual Monarchy) as a temporary measure to force the Empire back together before any devolution could be considered. A dictatorship from the centre, I believe FF referred to it as.

It was a reasonable enough plan. Franz Ferdinand himself didn't expect it to last all that long (but as long as necessary) and expressed an opinion that his reign would only last long enough for the initial stabilization. Whether it would've worked would depend on a number of factors.

You are right. Although, even if my aim were to create a monarchy with autonomy and equal rights for all nationalities, I could only imagine it to happen after the whole Ausgleich thing has been abolished and that would have to happen over the heads of the Hungarian (elite)s.

It's the omelette thing.
 
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