AHC: Austria-Hungary gets through WW1 intact, Germany still loses

BigBlueBox

Banned
Try to make it so that Austria-Hungary and Germany are on the same side in WW1, but Germany is subjected to a peace at least as harsh as OTL Versailles, while for A-H the Dual Monarchy is preserved, Cisleithanian Austria retains the Southern Sudetenland and access to the Adriatic, and the Kingdom of Hungary's borders are not less than it's OTL borders on May 1, 1941.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
You can do this by having Austria-Hungary agree to making a separate peace early enough--specifically before Italy and Romania enter the war.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
You can do this by having Austria-Hungary agree to making a separate peace early enough--specifically before Italy and Romania enter the war.
That's what I'm thinking, but how do we avoid Woodrow Wilson going full "national self-determination" or Georges Clemenceau ripping the Habsburgs a new one? After Germany is defeated, the Allies could turn on Austria-Hungary and focus their attention on it.
 
They would have to offer peace when it's not looking good for the Entante so they get certain terms and such that are perferable to them.
 
Russia have to fall into chaos like IOTL because Russians wanted AH dissolution.
And I would not worry about "self-determination"-it was only used when suited Allies (vide Czechoslovakia).
If Habsburg Monarchy managed to survive somehow (losing Bosnia, Galizia, Trieste) power vaccum that was result of AH break up is avoided, thus that part of Europe is more stable. It will be interesting if archduke Charles Stephen became king of Poland and Polish-Austro-Hungarian alliance is created. Britain should be happy because such block would not be seen as French vassals.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
That's what I'm thinking, but how do we avoid Woodrow Wilson going full "national self-determination" or Georges Clemenceau ripping the Habsburgs a new one? After Germany is defeated, the Allies could turn on Austria-Hungary and focus their attention on it.
If Austria-Hungary makes a separate peace in 1915, Wilson and Clemeanceau will be non-issues since they won't be in power yet.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Prevent Wilson from going full-blown national self-determination (this is very hard). Maybe having Britain and France carrying the war without US entry. g
No Romanian entry. Even with Italy in the war, A-H can still retain some access to ports.
Russia must not join the victors in the end.
No all-out liberals at Versailles (in fact most of the leaders at Versailles were liberals).
 
It might be done in a small window between FJs death and the US entry

If Karl is more man and less Willis pet he might force Germany to a peace offer (like otl), but as OTL Germany does not want peace - Karl DOES want it and offers a separate peace.

1916 was not really a good year for the Entente - and having to fight an enemy less - well UK and France might like it. Wilson even might mediate.

The other Entente members might not have a big say - especially if Karl is willing to sacrifice SOMETHING (to Italy).

PS - I started a TL some time lago with exactly THIS - unfortunately I simply have too many ideas and not time enough to really develop it :D
 
I believe, if the k.u.k doesn't go on offensive in 1918 and it remains on the defensive in Italy, then it can avoid the collapse of OTL. Furthermore, if Austria-Hungary draws back its forces from the Western front after the fail of the German summer offensive, then even the Bulgarians could be reinforced with those troops.

With these circumstances present, when the Germans start to get pushed back, Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria could sign armistices on relatively favourable terms.

With Austria-Hungary remaining intact, Romania won't dare to rejoin the war, and the Entente won't force the ceding of such territories which are still under solid Austro-Hungarian control to nonexistent entities like Czechoslovakia.

In my opinion the peace with Austria-Hungary would have been the following:

-Austria cedes Trent and Austrian Littoral with Triest to Italy.
-Austria cedes Western Galicia to Poland
-Austria cedes Eastern Galicia and Bucovina to Ukraine (later partitioned between Poland and Romania anyway)
-Austria-Hungary cedes Bosnia-Hercegovina to Serbia.
-Hungary softens it's minority policies, the precedent of 1868 is reestablished.
-Austro-Hungarian army is maximised in 100 000 personnel.
-Austria-Hungary pays war reparations.

Meanwhile Bulgaria gets the same treaty as OTL and they can keep Southern Dobruja with the possible exception of Constanza, which is returned to Romania.

With a non-imploded Austria-Hungary though, the Germans might get even harsher terms.
 
I believe, if the k.u.k doesn't go on offensive in 1918 and it remains on the defensive in Italy, then it can avoid the collapse of OTL. Furthermore, if Austria-Hungary draws back its forces from the Western front after the fail of the German summer offensive, then even the Bulgarians could be reinforced with those troops.

With these circumstances present, when the Germans start to get pushed back, Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria could sign armistices on relatively favourable terms.

With Austria-Hungary remaining intact, Romania won't dare to rejoin the war, and the Entente won't force the ceding of such territories which are still under solid Austro-Hungarian control to nonexistent entities like Czechoslovakia.

In my opinion the peace with Austria-Hungary would have been the following:

-Austria cedes Trent and Austrian Littoral with Triest to Italy.
-Austria cedes Western Galicia to Poland
-Austria cedes Eastern Galicia and Bucovina to Ukraine (later partitioned between Poland and Romania anyway)
-Austria-Hungary cedes Bosnia-Hercegovina to Serbia.
-Hungary softens it's minority policies, the precedent of 1868 is reestablished.
-Austro-Hungarian army is maximised in 100 000 personnel.
-Austria-Hungary pays war reparations.

Meanwhile Bulgaria gets the same treaty as OTL and they can keep Southern Dobruja with the possible exception of Constanza, which is returned to Romania.

With a non-imploded Austria-Hungary though, the Germans might get even harsher terms.
In case of a successful Sixtus Affair scenario, I wonder if:
-Bulgaria would also keep the Strumica, Bosiljgrad and Caribrod territories (perhaps even its Aegean coast territory)
-Albania would still survive a partition, seeming that the lack of Croatia and Slovenia in TTL's Yugoslavia (in this case, just Greater Serbia?) could persuade the serbs and montenegrins to demand the territories north of the Drin river;
-Romania would receive southern Transylvania, minus the Szekelyfold.
For reference:
e4fe77529e36fb9999c1c4e195929129.gif
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I believe, if the k.u.k doesn't go on offensive in 1918 and it remains on the defensive in Italy, then it can avoid the collapse of OTL. Furthermore, if Austria-Hungary draws back its forces from the Western front after the fail of the German summer offensive, then even the Bulgarians could be reinforced with those troops.

With these circumstances present, when the Germans start to get pushed back, Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria could sign armistices on relatively favourable terms.

With Austria-Hungary remaining intact, Romania won't dare to rejoin the war, and the Entente won't force the ceding of such territories which are still under solid Austro-Hungarian control to nonexistent entities like Czechoslovakia.

In my opinion the peace with Austria-Hungary would have been the following:

-Austria cedes Trent and Austrian Littoral with Triest to Italy.
-Austria cedes Western Galicia to Poland
-Austria cedes Eastern Galicia and Bucovina to Ukraine (later partitioned between Poland and Romania anyway)
-Austria-Hungary cedes Bosnia-Hercegovina to Serbia.
-Hungary softens it's minority policies, the precedent of 1868 is reestablished.
-Austro-Hungarian army is maximised in 100 000 personnel.
-Austria-Hungary pays war reparations.

Meanwhile Bulgaria gets the same treaty as OTL and they can keep Southern Dobruja with the possible exception of Constanza, which is returned to Romania.

With a non-imploded Austria-Hungary though, the Germans might get even harsher terms.
With large numbers of U.S. troops arriving in Europe, though, would the Entente have been willing to agree to keeping Austria-Hungary intact?

Indeed, please keep in mind that, in his 1920 book about the Versailles peace settlement, U.S. historian Charles Homer Haskins said that the Entente decided to break-up Austria-Hungary once they realized that Austria-Hungary has already de facto lost much of its independence and became a German satellite/puppet state.
 
At any point before USA entered the war France Russia and Britain would have bitten your hand off for an Austrian exit of the war.

Especially if mild reparations could have been extracted used to help pay for the war and/or Austria was willing to shut the rail link from Germany to the Turks.
 
Question is, even with a Hapsburg defection from the war (and this would infuriate the Germans no end, since it was Hapsburg assertiveness in delivering ultimata to Serbia that started the whole war up) will they back out soon enough to save their Empire from disintegrating?

No question that if AH tries to stay loyally in the war they started to the bitter end, it will disintegrate; the Allies, despite Russia's defection, have promised independence to too many factions not to insist on it if AH is at their mercy.

Quite aside from Allied insistence though, the war as conducted OTL was terribly corrosive. Consider Tito for instance; he was not in the pay of nor aided by Entente interests to subvert AH; he was a young man of no general note from a mixed marriage who was drafted into the AH army. The Russians, who were generally defeated badly by German forces, often triumphed over AH ones and Tito's unit was captured. It was as a Russian POW he was exposed to Bolshevik ideology and was converted into a staunch agent of the Comintern. By no means did all captured AH soldiers turn Communist nor did all Red AH subjects derive from such a background, but it illustrates the basic weakness of the Empire. Without a POD to strengthen its internal organization prior to the war (and I have searched in years largely in vain for a plausible one) the Empire cannot stand for long without being torn apart at the seams during battle; toward the end only the support of Germany was holding it together.

Give me a German Great war victory, even such a mild one as merely getting a "White Peace" truce with no territorial gains and no restoration of colonies, and I will give the AH Empire fighting odds to be kept alive on life support, because it would be in German interest to attempt this. I am not sure they could succeed though against the discontent of the divided but numerous non-German, non-Magyar people who composed the majority of subject peoples, not after they'd witnessed the failure of their armies.

OTOH with that elusive POD to strengthen AH so that their forces could hold against Russian ones--not necessarily win any great victories, just stand against the hammering--and such a more solid AH corps would surely do better against such foes as Serbia--then the better performance of the CP in the East ought to be a possible factor in getting a peace earlier, an acknowledged stalemate in the West leading to cease fire and status quo ante there (more or less; assuming the Germans did invade through Belgium then they might get away with more or less puppetizing that kingdom since its neutrality stands revealed as a farce--a net loss for the Allies then. Russia might have to concede territory to the Germans in the North, which might wind up being set up as more puppet kingdoms so all this amounts to mild CP victory, with AH doing well to hold is own (may well annex Serbia, though that would probably prove to be a colossal mistake). With such an early mild CP victory Bulgaria may hold its annexations of Thrace from Greece and so forth.

But I think the only way AH survives is with German support and so their best move is not to start the Great War at all, which was IIRC Berlin's advice to them too.

If Germany is defeated, even less abjectly than OTL (say, conceding Alsace-Lorraine to become a neutral buffer state, but not being required to disarm to the low levels imposed OTL, not being subject to the high reparations and suffering no more territorial losses) then AH is doomed I think. Without a war it might limp along without much German help, maybe, but if its basic governance does not improve markedly it could disintegrate even without a war to stress it.
 

Redbeard

Banned
What if the Italians collapse after Caporetto in October-November 1917. Not just the army, but also politically and A-H and Italy conclude a peace agreement soon after. At the sametime the Reds pull Russia out of the war (as in OTL) but A-H realise they have not much interest in continuing the war on the Western Front and that Germany hasn't the power to force her to continue the war now the A-H armies are uncommitted. So A-H conclude an armistice with France and UK. The Germans are really pissed but loose the war in the usual way against France and UK with full focus on the Western Front and soon a million + US troops in France.

An interesting sideshow could be the Austro-Hungarians deciding to utilise the temporarily pacified Russians and Italians to send the idle A-H armies (and navy) vs. the old archenemy - the Ottomans!
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
An interesting sideshow could be the Austro-Hungarians deciding to utilise the temporarily pacified Russians and Italians to send the idle A-H armies (and navy) vs. the old archenemy - the Ottomans!


Austria pretty much stopped being enemies with the Ottomans by the 1790s. They need to skip through two layers of countries to get at the Ottomans and what makes the effort worth it?
 
With large numbers of U.S. troops arriving in Europe, though, would the Entente have been willing to agree to keeping Austria-Hungary intact?

Indeed, please keep in mind that, in his 1920 book about the Versailles peace settlement, U.S. historian Charles Homer Haskins said that the Entente decided to break-up Austria-Hungary once they realized that Austria-Hungary has already de facto lost much of its independence and became a German satellite/puppet state.
The Entente wanted to end the war as quickly as possible and their primary target wasn't Austria-Hungary so I think they could let it slip.
I don't think the French and British want to indebt themselves to the Americans even a little bit more either. So if they can detach Austria-Hungary from Germany, which at this point is quite plausible, given there's no more Imperial Russia to worry about and the German economy is in ruins, then they won't bother messing with this area too much.
 
At any point before USA entered the war France Russia and Britain would have bitten your hand off for an Austrian exit of the war.

Especially if mild reparations could have been extracted used to help pay for the war and/or Austria was willing to shut the rail link from Germany to the Turks.
This would most certainly trigger a German invasion, which could even mean that Austria-Hungary could earn some territories after the war, for example Bavaria.
 
In case of a successful Sixtus Affair scenario, I wonder if:
-Bulgaria would also keep the Strumica, Bosiljgrad and Caribrod territories (perhaps even its Aegean coast territory)
-Albania would still survive a partition, seeming that the lack of Croatia and Slovenia in TTL's Yugoslavia (in this case, just Greater Serbia?) could persuade the serbs and montenegrins to demand the territories north of the Drin river;
-Romania would receive southern Transylvania, minus the Szekelyfold.
For reference:
e4fe77529e36fb9999c1c4e195929129.gif
I don't think that defeated nations like Serbia or Romania could demand anything with a Sixtus as POD.
 
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