AHC: ARW- Rebels take Canada, Loyalists move west.

[galanx]

There are a few ATLs where the American Revolutionary forces take Canada- including for this scenario, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick/Acadia.

Where do the Loyalists go? Not Newfoundland. Is there a possibility of them pulling a reverse Horseshoe Nail; moving west into the Louisiana Territory?

 

[Alt History Buff]

They would have to take "Lower Louisiana", those lands part of the Louisiana Purchase , from Spain (originally French but offered to Spain after 7 Years War but still heavily influenced by French and would be given back to France in Napoleonic times) first. There is no other way for them to REACH inland America. The Hudson Bay Territory is too remote to maintain trade links and would presumably fall to America anyway in your scenario. With France and/or Spain in command of the Mississippi River and America in command of the St. Lawrence, the loyalist would have no outlet from "Upper Louisiana", those lands comprising the present American Midwest (eastern bank of the Mississippi, conquered in the 7 Years War from France).

I don't see a scenario where Great Britain loses all of her North American colonies from Quebec to Miami but somehow takes Louisiana.

The only possibility is that this is done by horse trading after the war. Say Britain conquers a Guadaloupe or Martinque or San Dominique (Haiti) and France offers something to Spain for Louisiana and then agrees to cede Louisiana to Great Britain to get it/them back.

France and Spain may like this idea as it creates a buffer between a rising American Republic with the Spanish Empire.

This may be your best option for something like this but I believe it may be unlikely.

 

[funnyhat]

The only possibility is that this is done by horse trading after the war. Say Britain conquers a Guadaloupe or Martinque or San Dominique (Haiti) and France offers something to Spain for Louisiana and then agrees to cede Louisiana to Great Britain to get it/them back.

France and Spain may like this idea as it creates a buffer between a rising American Republic with the Spanish Empire.

This may be your best option for something like this but I believe it may be unlikely.

It's unlikely for two reasons:

First, a war in which France's major Caribbean colonies are conquered requires France to have a weaker navy, which makes it harder for the total American victory outlined above to be achieved.

Second, Britain probably wouldn't make that deal. Saint-Domingue, Guadeloupe and Martinique were all extremely lucrative sugar colonies, while Louisiana remained largely a backwater, not all that extensively settled at the time. (I know they swapped Guadeloupe for Canada IOTL, but they would not have done that if they hadn't also had possession of the Thirteen Colonies nearby.)

 

[Umbric Man]

Australia was mooted specifically as a Loyalist haven by the time they all had deigned to move to Canada, altho' my dates may be wrong (in which case Britain would have advertised Australia to the newly-settled English-Canadians ANYWAY).

 

[Glenuse]

Rebels Take Canada, Loyalists Move West

I guess it depends how long the war would last after Britain left Canada. Perhaps a quick peace would not have led to the bitterness and enmity between patriots and tories. Everyone loves a winner and a fast patriot victory would have kept many loyalists quiet with their heads down and fewer acts of violence against them.

If the war stretched on to its conclusion in 1783 without Canada I see the majority going to England with some to the Caribbean.