AHC: Armed, successful Polish revolt before 1944

Colonel Levnekov · Apr 8, 2017

Per the title.

Assuming possible start PODs beginning on October 6th, 1939 to October 2nd, 1944, how could a Polish resistance or revolt successfully fight back the Nazis in Poland, and recoalesce into some sort of state, while surviving for the duration of the war?

Skinny87 · Apr 8, 2017

Valkyrie is successful, leading to Nazi Civil War. German forces withdraw on Eastern Front to consolidate or get drawn into fighting, Home Army rises up and consolidates control of the city.

Still get steamrollered by the Soviets though. No changing that - Warsaw is directly in line with Berlin.

Anaxagoras · Apr 8, 2017

If the Home Army is in solid control of Warsaw, could the Soviets simply exterminate them without having relations with the West completely collapse?

marcinL · Apr 8, 2017

Anaxagoras said:
If the Home Army is in solid control of Warsaw, could the Soviets simply exterminate them without having relations with the West completely collapse?

They say thank you very much, and invite Polish leaders to a meeting from which they never return. They would be never seen again, except for a trial in Moscow where they would be accused of treason and collaboration with fascists and executed. The idea behind Warsaw uprising was rather naive, imo, ntm the idea that Stalin who outmaneuvered and murderdd all his political enemies would play according to their scenario. Unless you have Polish and allied forces parachuted in Warsaw, Soviets are.going to take Poland

Anaxagoras · Apr 8, 2017

marcinL said:
They say thank you very much, and invite Polish leaders to a meeting from which they never return.

The Poles weren't nearly that stupid.

Thomas1195 · Apr 8, 2017

So most of the Polish resistances were not Communists, were they?

jsb · Apr 8, 2017

Since you did not mention the Soviets need to be involved, French hold in BoF and it goes to a stalemate for 40/41, then allies begin to win in 42 and the Poles rise as the Germans collapse in the west. Soviets may or may not keep hold of estern Poland but don't wish to be involved with the victorious Entente that would result from moving west to crush the Polish uprising.

seraphim74 · Apr 8, 2017

Thomas1195 said:
So most of the Polish resistances were not Communists, were they?

They were not. There was a communist resitance in Poland with its armed force, People's Guard (later People's Army - Armia Ludowa - AL), but comparing to the Home Army, especially after it was united with parts of National Armed Forces and Peasants' Batalions, AL was rather small.

Originally posted by Anaxagoras

The Poles weren't nearly that stupid.

Actually, it did happen OTL. In March 1945 16 leaders of Polish Underground State were invited to talk about Soviet policy towards Poland and possible agreement with Polish non-communist resistance, due to low popularity of the Polish communists. But it was a trap. They were all arrested, sent to Moscow and tried as fascist collaborators.

thezerech · Apr 8, 2017

History's first rule, never trust the Russians.

Thomas1195 · Apr 8, 2017

seraphim74 said:
They were not. There was a communist resitance in Poland with its armed force, People's Guard (later People's Army - Armia Ludowa - AL), but comparing to the Home Army, especially after it was united with parts of National Armed Forces and Peasants' Batalions, AL was rather small.

Originally posted by Anaxagoras

Actually, it did happen OTL. In March 1945 16 leaders of Polish Underground State were invited to talk about Soviet policy towards Poland and possible agreement with Polish non-communist resistance, due to low popularity of the Polish communists. But it was a trap. They were all arrested, sent to Moscow and tried as fascist collaborators.

Maybe have someone escaping Katyn and join the leadership rank.

seraphim74 · Apr 9, 2017

Thomas1195 said:
Maybe have someone escaping Katyn and join the leadership rank.

Poles knew very well who was responsible for Katyń. They knew that Home Army units were disarmed by the Soviets, officers arrested and sent to gulags and soldiers drafted into Polish People's Army, procommunist armed force. Polish Resistance leaders agreed to talk to the Soviets simply because they had not much of a choice. With the Red Army on Polish territory and the western Allies far away and unwilling/unable to help they had to try for some kind of deal with the Soviets. Only Stalin was not interested in any kind of deal but his own.